November Discussion

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Being obsessed with suburban lawns is a uniquely American phenomenon. Like mom and apple pie.

I want a nice lawn..but you can always tell the ones who are super obsessed, probably to unhealthy levels

[leo2000]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two runs in a row with -EPO in the operational Euro' extended.

That aside, seems in general the operational GFS/Euro are coalescing around the colder vision, perhaps sooner than the last 10 days of the month, but hold pending future consistency.

Nothing historic, but the 850 mb metric suppresses S of the OV, entering week 2 ( 160+ hrs), and stays there, whilst Canadian reservoir replaces warm with cool anomalies. 

With a neutral-neg PNA flipping modes to neutral-positive during the period, and seeing more AB circulation type spanning the N-Pac in the EPS and GFS means, that sends a cooling signal into the Canadian Shield to match above.  ..surprising agreement actually.. 

It may be setting the table for a series or singular event of more significance between the 18th and 24th.. That hyper bomb in the GFS is less likely veracious but... I do think it is a synoptic instability suggestion  .. quasi Archembaultian deal. 

I suggest there is above 'normal model error' probability for something during that period - obviously it's going to challenge the tolerance thresholds LOL . ..ho man..  Sometimes we hate doing this extended lead threat assessing...cuz ya get all lubed up during the plot development but the movie is eternally boring waiting for it to happen.

One thing we should bear in mind as the month ages on... The flow is manifesting fast tendencies ...(here we go again) a characterization that has plagued most winters in the last 10 years. Separate discussion topic as to why, but... speed saturation, with over-packed isohypses counts, stresses deterministics at all temporal scales.  I think - in part - that is why there is a tendency for the models to over market.  

 

 

Let's hope the -EPO holds this time. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s got his wife and son out there raking his piles onto tarps and carrying to woods lol. His blower not strong enough to blow that many leaves 

I would never go below 650CFM / 180 MPH now that I've experienced the power in my hands. 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Being obsessed with suburban lawns is a uniquely American phenomenon. Like mom and apple pie.

I like my lawn to look ok but definitely not obsessed I would rather see it white. Nice EPS Euro runs for you

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s got his wife and son out there raking his piles onto tarps and carrying to woods lol. His blower not strong enough to blow that many leaves 

A good neighbor would lend his assistance and let him borrower the good blower.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

O good neighbor would lend his assistance and let him borrower the good blower.

Just a hunch, but I'm thinking DIT is very particular about his tools and the neighbor has learned by now that getting help from a lawn perfectionist is not a good idea. 

[MJO812]

Ensembles show snow on many areas Thanksgiving week. Way out there but models have a cold tday week.

 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Just a hunch, but I'm thinking DIT is very particular about his tools and the neighbor has learned by now that getting help from a lawn perfectionist is not a good idea. 

Could be, I live on a small dead end street with 5 houses, we all help each other and lend tools, I've borrowed my neighbors snow blower when mine was down and I've lent mine out now that I have a good one among other tools.

[PhineasC]

Oh yeah, I will take that EPS run for sure.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s got his wife and son out there raking his piles onto tarps and carrying to woods lol. His blower not strong enough to blow that many leaves 

With a yard that size, I’m not sure how you can not have a backpack… or hire someone to do it. His family is going to take a dive off the roof by the time they are finished tarping leaves 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

A good neighbor would lend his assistance and let him borrower the good blower.

I have before. He is the guy that borrows every surrounding neighbors equipment. And never buys his own. He’s borrowed other guys blower on wheels. He typically waits to do his driveway in winter until he sees me with my blower or another neighbor and then of course accepts our offers . Cheapskate . I’m very generous with helping people. But today he can use his 

[Torch Tiger]

this is what I use, it's a beast

[bwt3650]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Being obsessed with suburban lawns is a uniquely American phenomenon. Like mom and apple pie.

My neighbor cuts his lawn in circles instead of straight lines and it drives me crazy.  Does a crap job of weed whacking too.  Not sure how you bring up lawn lines to someone without being a douche.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I want a nice lawn..but you can always tell the ones who are super obsessed, probably to unhealthy levels

My parents came to America with just their shirts on their backs when they were 30. Didn’t know a lick of english. They became homeowners in 10yrs and worked in and around the house non stop…taking care of what they’ve accomplished. My brother and I learned at a young age to work for it, take care of it, and appreciate it. It’s all I know, it’s how I’m built…and I enjoy it.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have before. He is the guy that borrows every surrounding neighbors equipment. And never buys his own. He’s borrowed other guys blower on wheels. He typically waits to do his driveway in winter until he sees me with my blower or another neighbor and then of course accepts our offers . Cheapskate . I’m very generous with helping people. But today he can use his 

Homer Simpson?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Homer Simpson?

Not far from that. All your trees bare?

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not far from that. All your trees bare?

Yes, just a couple ornamental bushes around the house with leaves left.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty good cold pool on our side. True PV is on other side of pole, but enough of one exists on this side and is pinned here allowing Canada to be cold. That looks to try to spill into the US. Also, 50mb strat PV aligns fairly well with the 500mb look. So it seems like there is some stability to the look. Normal caveats apply, but fingers crossed.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Being obsessed with suburban lawns is a uniquely American phenomenon. Like mom and apple pie.

I'm reasonably sure that other countries have moms, too.

[tombo82685]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty good cold pool on our side. True PV is on other side of pole, but enough of one exists on this side and is pinned here allowing Canada to be cold. That looks to try to spill into the US. Also, 50mb strat PV aligns fairly well with the 500mb look. So it seems like there is some stability to the look. Normal caveats apply, but fingers crossed.

Strong wave 2 look stretching SPV tgiving week imo adds a bit of confidence for a possible good cold shot. All depends though on SPV alignment, but as of now looks good for delivering cold south. I know some have said stuff about pv being stronger than normal right now, while true, it also remains de-couple from troposphere  

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I'm reasonably sure that other countries have moms, too.

It’s just a phrase. LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

My guys do it all at once for $250 and I have just under an acre. Then they do one last mow, its usually around first week of December.

Her yard is…challenging.  Lots of big trees.  In a steep hill with rocks etc.  

$250 per service seems reasonable.     

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two runs in a row with -EPO in the operational Euro' extended.

That aside, seems in general the operational GFS/Euro are coalescing around the colder vision, perhaps sooner than the last 10 days of the month, but hold pending future consistency.

Nothing historic, but the 850 mb metric suppresses S of the OV, entering week 2 ( 160+ hrs), and stays there, whilst Canadian reservoir replaces warm with cool anomalies. 

With a neutral-neg PNA flipping modes to neutral-positive during the period, and seeing more AB circulation type spanning the N-Pac in the EPS and GFS means, that sends a cooling signal into the Canadian Shield to match above.  ..surprising agreement actually.. 

It may be setting the table for a series or singular event of more significance between the 18th and 24th.. That hyper bomb in the GFS is less likely veracious but... I do think it is a synoptic instability suggestion  .. quasi Archembaultian deal. 

I suggest there is above 'normal model error' probability for something during that period - obviously it's going to challenge the tolerance thresholds LOL . ..ho man..  Sometimes we hate doing this extended lead threat assessing...cuz ya get all lubed up during the plot development but the movie is eternally boring waiting for it to happen.

One thing we should bear in mind as the month ages on... The flow is manifesting fast tendencies ...(here we go again) a characterization that has plagued most winters in the last 10 years. Separate discussion topic as to why, but... speed saturation, with over-packed isohypses counts, stresses deterministics at all temporal scales.  I think - in part - that is why there is a tendency for the models to over market.  

 

 

You don't think the fast flow over the last 10 years has anything to do with the Ha***y Cell, do you?

[DavisStraight]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Her yard is…challenging.  Lots of big trees.  In a steep hill with rocks etc.  

$250 per service seems reasonable.     

The funny thing is 80% of the leaves are from my neighbors trees.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles show snow on many areas Thanksgiving week. Way out there but models have a cold tday week.

 

That's unpossible DT just got done cancelling November cold due to the change in the Pacific ridge due to previous day model changes lol

 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, mreaves said:

 

One is weed, one is beer. One is liberal and one is conservative but they come together over lawn love. Ain’t America grand. 

Odd couple?

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Me doing the lawn got the neighbors out to do theirs. Dudes got the cheapest , weakest blower . 

Is that where you sent your leaves?  lol

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

How are we not getting a storm out of this?

There’s basically no confluence at all ahead of that system. It would help if we had a bit more baroclinicity. That said, some of these runs have a pretty vigorous s/w so we may see future runs show a bit more of a system. 

[Lava Rock]

this is what I use, it's a beast

I bet my two power electric Toro has more balls

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I bet my two power electric Toro has more balls

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Lol..Torch tiger and his previous screen name forever throwing weenie tags at everyone.