MJO812 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: what the hell happened overnight? Models backed off on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Models backed off on winter It's Nov 10th. Winter doesn't start till after Torchmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: what the hell happened overnight? Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's Nov 10th. Winter doesn't start till after Torchmas. In a La Nina year that might not work out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models backed off on winter Do yourself, and all of us a favor and stop looking at guidance until 12/5. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do yourself, and all of us a favor and stop looking at guidance until 12/5. I can't help it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can't help it Next best thing...stop posting about it. And I don't just mean warm guidance, either....we could do without the hour 330 snow maps, which make the melts 6 hours later all the more infuriating. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Still looks like some threats for NNE. That hasn’t changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Must be in the air, I'm dealing with a lot of defiant people today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 That day 6 threat might be just a bit late in developing, but still worth watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Although 6z GFS has snow up north. Just was going by EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can't help it Post your thoughts in the NYC forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Must be in the air, I'm dealing with a lot of defiant people today. It gets worse every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It gets worse every year. You hate to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 ...We haven't even made it past Torchgiving yet. Winter is only 2 months long, if that. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 27 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Post your thoughts in the NYC forum. This is my 2nd home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Ya The swings with each model run are getting rough to read. Gorgeous week…Monday, yesterday and now today too…just enjoy it. Who cares if the 330 hr GFS shows rain or temps around 50, it’s 11/10. Enjoy the great weather and appreciate it. NNE should get on the board within the next couple weeks..so the step down continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Shaping up to be another nice day out here. Showers are over sun is popping out temperatures already in the low 50s. What a start to November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That day 6 threat might be just a bit late in developing, but still worth watching. Agreed. You know this, just speaking to the general audience here: And, it hasn't really been the other way with this guy .. save for one or two sporadic non-dependable runs of GFS ( heh, one wonders if there is a tell there). The 18z yesterday's NJ Model bomb was one of those .. But no continuity. Invariably, those notions immediately re-damped back to the too-little-too-late on the next cycle. I did a quick eval. The loading mechanics, as of the 06z, were just approaching the Date Line, out around 45 N. It was entering the compression under a progressive L/W in that region, thus pulled and stretched by fast flow ... extending out over the abyssal Pacific - in other words, in the absolute middle of nowhere. It is literally going to have to be 100% satellite sounding/assimilated. Which is usually fine - nowadays. Technology and techniques therein have improved over the last 20 years, considerably. I mean remember the good old days? As winter storm enthusiasts, how our dreams sometimes came true that error correction, upon relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain, would suddenly manifest and moisten said dreams. The last time this seemed to really matter was that Boxing Day bomb way back. That thing was impressive at D8... all but disappeared in the interim. Out of nowhere, just three runs it marches 2,000 naut miles NW! Still, this is a highly sensitive-to-smaller error scenario. The other limiting factor is that as the wave mechanics are diving in, the leading embedded wave space has escaped the EC taking most of the dynamics with it. The baroclinic axis, as of these overnight runs, is just too far off shore as you noted. The way around that is to have a stronger system relay off the Pacific. A deeper more momentum saturated inject introduces torque to the larger synoptic manifold. This manifest as flow rotation, or veering at mid levels into more meridian structure out ahead. That starts importing lower level warmth/moisture back W-N immediately astride the coast. Basically, b-c zone has redeveloped/ repositioned closer ... My own experience is, this kind of persistent presence in the models, usually means it is in and of its self significant. It's likely that one way or the other...it's a bomb whisking away out over the open expanse of NW-N Atlantic beyond D6, whether that begins to happen sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 I didn't see any real changes overnight to the D6 threat. As for late November, the guidance has been slowly warming because of eroding blocking up in the WPO/EPO region, but I wouldn't sweat it too much. It's not like there is a death vortex up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I didn't see any real changes overnight to the D6 threat. As for late November, the guidance has been slowly warming because of eroding blocking up in the WPO/EPO region, but I wouldn't sweat it too much. It's not like there is a death vortex up there. The paranoia is off of the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The paranoia is off of the charts. Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. If the winter is not a combination of December 1995, January 2011, February 2015, and March 1993, it's a failure. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. That is what I alluding to. I feel fine about December...even if it ends up near normal or a bit above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If the winter is not a combination of December 1995, January 2011, February 2015, and March 1993, it's a failure. Give me March 2018 over 1993. And if it weren't for the Grinch porker, I would have taken Dec 2007 over 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because all the hacks are out there on social media claiming winter is coming with memes etc. God forbid one of us posts something a little to the contrary. They either don't listen, or just take that as if to say winter is cancelled. That’s the problem with pathetic social media….such fake BS it defies logic. That’s why I want no part of it. Never been a part of that nonsense, and life is so much better not seeing or participating in that total crap. All you need to know about weather is found here…it’s factual and actual and no exaggeration. Thank you Will and Scott and Ray and Ginxy..and the others that keep things real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Give me March 2018 over 1993. And if it weren't for the Grinch porker, I would have taken Dec 2007 over 1995. I'd actually probably take Dec 1970 over both. The first 4 or 5 days torched and then all hell broke loose and it never stopped. March 2001 is also prob better than either 1993 or 2018 if we're talking about Methuen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd actually probably take Dec 1970 over both. The first 4 or 5 days torched and then all hell broke loose and it never stopped. March 2001 is also prob better than either 1993 or 2018 if we're talking about Methuen. I was contemplating that, but I'd have to look back to see other events, aside from the 3/5 lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 19 hours ago, powderfreak said: Isn’t it 1” snow depth at 12z on Xmas morning? Though I report snow depth to cocorahs at 7 AM, I've been recording depth at 9 PM for the past 45 years, so that's my "official" measurement. Using that metric, we've had white ground on 19 of 23 Christmases here, with only 2" in 1998 but 3+ in the other 18. Max was 16" in 2017 thanks to the 8" dump that day. Misses came in 1999, 2006, 2015 and 2020. Last year was the only one of the 4 which had pack (4") on the 24th; the others had a long string of bare ground pre-Christmas. Average depth rises to 6"+ on 12/17 and with one exception stays above the half-foot mark thru 4/12. Last year's 12/25 deluge dragged the average for that date to 5.96". One hopes that blot on the 6"+ run can be erased this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 More interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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