November Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is about 60-65%....BOS (keep in mind that is logan in the harbor) is about 20-25%. Most of metro-west like 128 to 495 is prob closer to the 40-50% range.

Old climo map I had on my files:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Old climo map I had on my files:

 

Cool!

I wonder what this would look like if it was run for 2000 - 2021  hm

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Cool!

I wonder what this would look like if it was run for 2000 - 2021  hm

For ORH, White Xmas happened in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2019. That's 11 out of 21...so a little over 50%.

if we use the Hingham coop in place of BOS since BOS doesn't keep snow depth data any longer, then we have white Xmas in 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2017. That's 8 out of 21 or just under 40%.

[PhineasC]

12z GFS is active and snowy for elevated NNE second half of the month.

[weathafella]

One thing I noticed was that after a string of sub freezing nights there is no green and leaves are shriveled.  Should be a good leaf storm Friday.

[Lava Rock]

68.5F. What Fall?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

For ORH, White Xmas happened in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2019. That's 11 out of 21...so a little over 50%.

if we use the Hingham coop in place of BOS since BOS doesn't keep snow depth data any longer, then we have white Xmas in 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2017. That's 8 out of 21 or just under 40%.

Heh, I wonder what counts as "white Xmas"  lol.   If it snowed 6" on Dec 16 and 8 days later there's some snow piles lining curbs and some in the shade - that's bootlegging a definition.   It just doesn't appeal in memory to be that robust to me -but ... that's yahoo admittedly

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, I wonder what counts as "white Xmas"  lol.   If it snowed 6" on Dec 16 and 8 days later there's some snow piles lining curbs and some in the shade - that's bootlegging a definition.   It just doesn't appeal in memory to be that robust to me -but ... that's yahoo admittedly

Isn’t it 1” snow depth at 12z on Xmas morning?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Isn’t it 1” snow depth at 12z on Xmas morning?

Yeah ... I think I read that bullshit requirement -

Like 'an inch' ...what the f does that mean ...  'more than a pube'?   That's razor thin, and if it is an inch, there are areas where it failed... 

I think it is a subjective thing that slopes in favor of getting a white recognition hahaha... When in spirit, white everywhere and not melting ... or raining on Xmas morning such that it is bear ground by 4pm but because it there 2" of corn snow at dawn really -yaaaay!

I'm half snarking for fun -

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

One thing I noticed was that after a string of sub freezing nights there is no green and leaves are shriveled.  Should be a good leaf storm Friday.

This ^

I was doing mid day errands and suddenly ... oaks peaked!   Go wonder -

there's also less common species mixed in that were actually more stubborn than the oaks, that were adding still green and those are flushing over brown/orange quickly. 

I wonder if this belated behavior took place in 1971

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... I think I read that bullshit requirement -

Like 'an inch' ...what the f does that mean ...  'more than a pube'?   That's razor thin, and if it is an inch, there are areas where it failed... 

I think it is a subjective thing that slopes in favor of getting a white recognition hahaha... When in spirit, white everywhere and not melting ... or raining on Xmas morning such that it is bear ground by 4pm but because it there 2" of corn snow at dawn really -yaaaay!

I'm half snarking for fun -

I agree with your sentiments.  Even a decent pack of 12” loses its “White Christmas” luster if it’s 44F, raining with 1/4 mile thick fog and blackened snowbanks.

Sure it’s a “White Christmas” but despite a foot on the ground, there are soggy water runnels and pea soup views outside… whereas even a fresh 2-4” on grass and on every twig and branch probably achieves a better festive atmosphere with 70% less snowpack.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with your sentiments.  Even a decent pack of 12” loses its “White Christmas” luster if it’s 44F, raining with 1/4 mile thick fog and blackened snowbanks.

Sure it’s a “White Christmas” but despite a foot on the ground, there are soggy water runnels and pea soup views outside… whereas even a fresh 2-4” on grass and on every twig and branch probably achieves a better festive atmosphere with 70% less snowpack.

On the flip side, there were some places (mostly S of pike) that did not get a white Xmas in 2002 because they had bare ground and the snow didn't start accumulating until about 8-9am in spots. So that was deceptive too. I think some spots in far SE MA had this happen in 2017 too...the rain flipped to snow there around 7am but they didn't have an inch yet...so it officially goes down as a brown Xmas even though they prob were snowing 2" per hour between 7-9am.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful pattern sets up on the gfs after this week. Nao looks good .

And the new GFS pops a 591dm ridge up the east coast for 11/25. That model is Lol-worthy. It flat out sucks, always has, probably always will

[DavisStraight]

I would rather have an inch or two of crust Christmas Eve and Christmas day than a foot a powder get melted by heavy rain on the 24 th, which has happened.

[ORH_wxman]

Getting back to the "threat" next week....as Tip said, this wave is probably going to cause some model waffling. It comes in screaming on kind of a "flat" flow. You can see it here at 90 hours on the Euro

 

 

And even now the 84 hour NAM at 18z "sees" the wave as well.

 

 

 

 

This is the one to watch....you have the lead deep trough out ahead of it and that wave will try to amplify into the back side of that large trough. That's kind of what you are looking for this early in the season because you typically want some fresh CAA to put a decent antecedent airmas in place. It's not the greatest airmass, but might be enough for interior and esp elevations. Something to watch at least....we'll see if it is still there in another 48 hours.

 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, there were some places (mostly S of pike) that did not get a white Xmas in 2002 because they had bare ground and the snow didn't start accumulating until about 8-9am in spots. So that was deceptive too. I think some spots in far SE MA had this happen in 2017 too...the rain flipped to snow there around 7am but they didn't have an inch yet...so it officially goes down as a brown Xmas even though they prob were snowing 2" per hour between 7-9am.

I’d have to check but ALB in 2002 I think we woke up to bare ground on Xmas day… that huge storm started at like 9-10am IIRC.  Then we had 18” by the time I was driving my grandmother home that evening and finished with 22” at my childhood house.

Snowing 3”/hr during Christmas Dinner was awesome.  But despite like 18” at ALB on the 25th, that 12z morning ob might have been grass.

[SJonesWX]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with your sentiments.  Even a decent pack of 12” loses its “White Christmas” luster if it’s 44F, raining with 1/4 mile thick fog and blackened snowbanks.

Sure it’s a “White Christmas” but despite a foot on the ground, there are soggy water runnels and pea soup views outside… whereas even a fresh 2-4” on grass and on every twig and branch probably achieves a better festive atmosphere with 70% less snowpack.

last year certainly lost its luster. although it was in the 40's early on xmas morning, still had snowpack. By the time I left my brothers house shortly after xmas dinner, the snowpack had been vaporized. temp of 57, DP of 56 nuked that pack in a hurry. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

last year certainly lost its luster. although it was in the 40's early on xmas morning, still had snowpack. By the time I left my brothers house shortly after xmas dinner, the snowpack had been vaporized. temp of 57, DP of 56 nuked that pack in a hurry. 

I may have officially still had an inch or two of slush at 7am last year....but it was so disgusting I'm not even counting that as a white Xmas.

It was funny because Xmas eve was amazing....like 50-55 but still a foot of snow OTG and filtered sun. My boys were outside most of the day playing in it and we had a fire going in the fire pit outside. It was quite festive....almost a Reggae-fest atmosphere you see at ski areas in late March on those warmish days. If it weren't for the horrific rainstorm that started later that night, it probably would have just been a typical warm day that melts 3 inches of pack but not much else.

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And the new GFS pops a 591dm ridge up the east coast for 11/25. That model is Lol-worthy. It flat out sucks, always has, probably always will

Yeah, look at the 2m temp anomaly change from 0z to 12z, lol, on 11/25 over the entire country and Canada.  Up to 55F difference in southern Alberta and major differences in Eastern US.  Clown range, but still...

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, look at the 2m temp anomaly change from 0z to 12z, lol, on 11/25 over the entire country and Canada.  Up to 55F difference in southern Alberta and major differences in Eastern US.  Clown range, but still...

 

What do you guys expect that far out? Any of those solutions are possible. 

[CoastalWx]

2017 was the first real Christmas I've ever seen snow fall like that. Will is right, 7a was too early here IIRC, but we blitzed for like 90 minutes and had under 3". 

[CoastalWx]

Swiss model FTW in that one.   

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2017 was the first real Christmas I've ever seen snow fall like that. Will is right, 7a was too early here IIRC, but we blitzed for like 90 minutes and had under 3". 

Hingham technically snuck in with 1" at obs time. But maybe they had 8am obs time...id have to look up their specs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snower coming 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hingham technically snuck in with 1" at obs time. But maybe they had 8am obs time...id have to look up their specs.

It might be close. It was around 7 when it started snowing I think.

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, look at the 2m temp anomaly change from 0z to 12z, lol, on 11/25 over the entire country and Canada.  Up to 55F difference in southern Alberta and major differences in Eastern US.  Clown range, but still...

 

Yeah, I would take this with a slice of salt LOL. I really don't trust either model Euro or GFS. In our state and Connecticut 1 meteorologist from a certain Network loves the Euro, where another meteorologist from a different network loves the GFS. It all comes down to as we get closer to the storm and as the models converge. It happens every year and probably what makes each other crazy. That's what makes it fun LOL

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What do you guys expect that far out? Any of those solutions are possible. 

Of course they are.  I did leave the clown range caveat, but a bit more consistency over a 12 hour period would be welcomed.  If solutions can be that different, why even bother going beyond 240 hrs?  What's the point?

[Spanks45]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s been impressive for most inland folks in SNE this last week in the morning cold department.  Nice to see.  
 

Gonna be gorgeous today. 

71.2⁰ for the high today, amazing day to get out and hike....

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Of course they are.  I did leave the clown range caveat, but a bit more consistency over a 12 hour period would be welcomed.  If solutions can be that different, why even bother going beyond 240 hrs?  What's the point?

That is why we use ensembles that far out. It's not worth looking and commenting on them because you will get wild swings with each run.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

For ORH, White Xmas happened in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2019. That's 11 out of 21...so a little over 50%.

if we use the Hingham coop in place of BOS since BOS doesn't keep snow depth data any longer, then we have white Xmas in 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2017. That's 8 out of 21 or just under 40%.

That is a dam good stretch.