November Discussion

[CoastalWx]

55 here in Torchmouth.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

55 here in Torchmouth.

Shouldn't that be S. Torchmouth?

[tamarack]

Got into the 20s for the 8th consecutive morning here.  We've had 5 sunny/mostly sunny days this month and 3 PC.  Only 7 of the previous 23 Novembers have recorded more than 5 sunnies and none have had more than 8.  Maybe that means little/no sun the rest of the month?  (After today, anyway - bright sun with a few wispy clouds.  Picked the wrong time [7:30] to take the garbage out to the pick-up spot - sun appeared to sit right on the road and with re-forming frost I had to drive with head out the window.  Not going to warm up the vehicle for a 2,000' journey.)

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mreaves said:

Shouldn't that be S. Torchmouth?

I mean it's the same person who thinks they live at KBDL in the summer and KORH in the winter, so it's not a surprised they seem geographically challenged.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it's the same person who thinks they live at KBDL in the summer and KORH in the winter, so it's not a surprised they seem geographically challenged.

Only took them a decade to get their station on the internet so we can verify.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Only took them a decade to get their station on the internet so we can verify.

Well I don't have mine on for a few reasons. Until I can get the anny on the roof and figure out my rain gauge we keep as is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I don't have mine on for a few reasons. Until I can get the anny on the roof and figure out my rain gauge we keep as is. 

Just use other stations there in S Wey to report all rain and temps. Close enough right? 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just use other stations there in S Wey to report all rain and temps. Close enough right? 

My temp is fine, but I don't trust my Davis for rain, I have my other standard gauge. Davis seems to work ok when it's a steady rain with no wind..but that is few and far between.  I just need to tweak it, but that seems like a PITA.

[Typhoon Tip]

I frankly can't trust any operational model solution in present era - regardless of which origin ( or street cred/personal bias choice ) therefrom. 

Lower than the 'normal model error expectation,'  by a goodly amount at that...   Lol, the NAVGEM has about as much odds of nailing a D8'er look as any at this point.

The problem is that the canvased pattern enveloping our side of the Hemisphere ( from N of Hawaii to S of Greenland ) is characterized by a low N-S, but high W-E amplitude type.  

That is a low performing arena at any time of the year;  adding to that, this is not a typical model-performance merit season: Transitioning mid autumn.  It is in fact demerit in nature. Heh  ...but wait, it doesn't end there.

On top of those compounding belly punches into the torso of determinism ... the models consummately bring anything and everything into the outer emergent ranges of their runs ( circa D8 + out to the ends...), over amplified compared to what ultimately verifies.  This has been notable for years of operational vagaries.  It's not a fixed value..  It's like I said yesterday: inspirational aspect --> less inspirational results.  It's variable as to how much or little that is the case... But far less frequently does a small blip in pattern change, or small wave in the field on D11, end up writing passages in climate bibles.  But going the other way, ...for whatever reason of complexity, that happens a lot more often. 

It doesn't help that the American -based telecon spread' mean features a weakly positive PNA that is sagging negative actually ... D10+, while the NAO is bouncing around positive for a week before half the members split (+)(-).   That's sort of N/S by statistical convention in the matter -

I realize the EPS may be more stolid with a 'somewhat' favorable look, but I don't believe this amplitude correction tendency is unique to American model types - which means in simple terms, it too may tone it down given time.  In fact, as I've outlined so often in the past, the Euro DEFINITELY has a curved wash in it's D7s ... it's in the genetics of the Euro cluster, too.

The upshot of uncertainty and N/S ... that doesn't have to mean "No Snow"    Anytime after the World Series and Halloween are in the books, it is fair game N of the Del Marva.   It's just a matter of return rate. 

N of the mid latitudes ( however ..) I am noticing that sub -10C expanses of 850 mb air are consistently showing up  -  despite variability as noted.   That's not a bad table setting ...should the randomness of wave timing in space snag some ...  There's a 'little critter' signals around 156 hours or so...  go from there.

[WinterWolf]

61 here…off we go. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just use other stations there in S Wey to report all rain and temps. Close enough right? 

That’s S. Torchmouth. 

[dendrite]

61F already. 66F at DAW.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

61F already. 66F at DAW.

Perfect stuff. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Perfect stuff. 

Yeah...would love this a handful of times in DJF to break the monotony.

[GCWarrior]

What a nice couple days.  Did a quick 4 mile ride at the Warfield house in Charlemont before dark yesterday.  Pretty glorious.  Now today is even nicer!  Much better than the typical November misery.  

[BrianW]

Seems like the warmth is really over performing here. A lot of places are close to 70 already. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Seems like the warmth is really over performing here. A lot of places are close to 70 already. 

MOS FTL type of day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

70 here

[Cyclone-68]

I wish we could make history with an unprecedented November Derecho but if “if’s and buts” were candy and nuts everyday would be Christmas 

[metagraphica]

26 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Seems like the warmth is really over performing here. A lot of places are close to 70 already. 

69/43 here.  Fantastic day to have off from work.

[WinterWolf]

69 here currently. Fabulous for sure. We take and enjoy. 

[powderfreak]

59F at MVL… feels wonderful outside.  Might need to take a drive this afternoon to BTV to wear shorts one last time, ha.

[CoastalWx]

67 here. 

[CoastalWx]

Wonder if leafout occurring again in Tolland after never dropping below 32?

[powderfreak]

Mild on the peaks.  Mansfield is 45F at 4,000ft, fitting with that same elevation on MWN.

[ORH_wxman]

Something cooking on the Euro at D6....GGEM showed this too but the GGEM was more for NNE elevations. Euro might be for SNE too.

[Typhoon Tip]

probably the last 70 we'll see until next Christmas Eve ....

I know we've been over this a dozen times but it's just not something I really pay attention to, nor give much shit about .. but what is the return rate for white xmas' ? Jeez, ya'd think after growing up in the area through the 80s and 90s I'd have a bead on it but - ...I don't really know beyond guesswork.

Like, I think saw one of the local on-camera dudes ..way back in the day, put  up a graphic and so forth that it was 1:3  ... But I think since 2000 ( anyway ..) that's too generous. 

in the last six years, it seems it's been all or nothing... Remembering back recently, 2017, that was about as pinnacle idyllic a white xmas as Earth can do. No snow on ground with a winter storm warning in place by late in the afternoon on the Eve, and as the blue illumination cast through the morning windows ... 8-10" of Currier&Ives snow globe whirled ... It ended around cinnabun time ...  and the sun coming out, I mean it was like angel's in chorus with prism icicle overload. 

All the other years since 2015?   Satan's rectal canal ..

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Something cooking on the Euro at D6....GGEM showed this too but the GGEM was more for NNE elevations. Euro might be for SNE too.

Yeah...ensembles have been flirting with it.

The 00z EPS mean was ever so slightly more consolidated with a closed ..albeit weakly so, millibar along Cape Cod, and also an 'attitude' for more amp at 500 mb.   Earlier I mentioned, "There's a 'little critter' signaled around 156 hours or so...  go from there. .."  

Meanwhile, the individual GEFies have been tossing a clipper like minor wave around the cycles like hot potato - heh..no one wants ownership. 

Thing is, the flow is flat -ish-like off the Pac ..it's not the best times for nailing mid range spatial and temporal aspects.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Something cooking on the Euro at D6....GGEM showed this too but the GGEM was more for NNE elevations. Euro might be for SNE too.

Late bloomer, but maybe something to watch.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably the last 70 we'll see until next Christmas Eve ....

I know we've been over this a dozen times but it's just not something I really pay attention to, nor give much shit about .. but what is the return rate for white xmas' ? Jeez, ya'd think after growing up in the area through the 80s and 90s I'd have a bead on it but - ...I don't really know beyond guesswork.

Like, I think saw one of the local on-camera dudes ..way back in the day, put  up a graphic and so forth that it was 1:3  ... But I think since 2000 ( anyway ..) that's too generous. 

in the last six years, it seems it's been all or nothing... Remembering back recently, 2017, that was about as pinnacle idyllic a white xmas as Earth can do. No snow on ground with a winter storm warning in place by late in the afternoon on the Eve, and as the blue illumination cast through the morning windows ... 8-10" of Currier&Ives snow globe whirled ... It ended around cinnabun time ...  and the sun coming out, I mean it was like angel's in chorus with prism icicle overload. 

All the other years since 2015?   Satan's rectal canal ..

ORH is about 60-65%....BOS (keep in mind that is logan in the harbor) is about 20-25%. Most of metro-west like 128 to 495 is prob closer to the 40-50% range.