November Discussion

[NorEastermass128]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe the tip of Cape Ann isn't. But most of it would be in the 50 zone. They can be kind of boom or bust there.

There's also no way you didn't break 30" in 2017-2018. The 1/4/18 and 3/13/18 events alone almost get you there....then add events like Xmas 2017, Feb 17-18, Mar 7-8 and then other random 2-4" type events

2017-2018 was a blur after moving back from VA. 
 

12/25/17 - ~3”

1/4/18 - ~12”

2/17/18 - ~4”

3/7/18 - ~4”

Not much else beyond that. Maybe we nickled and dimed to 30ish?  It’s a different world out here.   

[klw]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I believe they used that?  Is that one from like Oregon State or something?

BTV issued a similar map recently but there are some subtle differences:

It discusses methodology at the link.

https://www.weather.gov/btv/climoSnowfall

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

2017-2018 was a blur after moving back from VA. 
 

12/25/17 - ~3”

1/4/18 - ~12”

2/17/18 - ~4”

3/7/18 - ~4”

Not much else beyond that. Maybe we nickled and dimed to 30ish?  It’s a different world out here.   

You had like 15-18" in 3/13/18

[powderfreak]

Seasons in seasons.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob draw SNE to look more like this (I rushed this just now, so I didn't put in as many obsessive details as usual)

You can tell by some of the roundish bullseyes that there's not much data to work with in some areas. 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I believe they used that?  Is that one from like Oregon State or something?

This map was probably just ArcGIS, there's elevation adjustments involved but not PRISM.

[dmillz25]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You had like 15-18" in 3/13/18

And how about 3/21/18?

[Lava Rock]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seasons in seasons.

when u opening?

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's all bogus north of BOS....those north shore towns should be over 50....unless maybe you are literally out in the ocean like the tip of Cape Ann or maybe some of those communities near Marblehead.

 

The 75+ should also extend down to far NW CT in Litchfield county and you could prob put a 100-spot or two in the northern Berkshires on the crest there over 2000-2500 feet.

I was going to say the same, at least for the NW hills avg, I had gone back from 28-now, at the closest cocorah station data shows we're avg over 80 here, and that lines up with what I've been averaging since moving here.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

when u opening?

Scheduled for the 19th.  It's usually pretty tight though.  This looks nice but does zero towards getting open, ha.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You had like 15-18" in 3/13/18

Nearly 15" at water's edge from Logan.  Probably a memory blank with everything else that was going on.

[Typhoon Tip]

Did anyone else notice the 12z guidance' et al pretty much kissed the back of the donkey's balls ?

[Chrisrotary12]

I wish I new what that meant ^^^.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I wish I new what that meant ^^^.

Torch 

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually am not sure about that weenie spot of 75" plus just north of me.....that would imply I am at least near 70", which I think is a bit high. I would extend the 75+ down to just N and W of ORH.

Looking to the north, that 75-100 blue in the St. John Valley is bogus, a product of wonky measurements IMO.  In my 9 full winters there FK ran 20" below CAR and any snow-conscious resident in FK would laugh at that.  My measurements in 5 in-town winters, 4 within 1/2 mile of the co-op site and maybe 15' higher elev., ran 24" above that co-op and 8" more than CAR.  The 4 back settlement years at 970' averaged 26" more than CAR and 51" beyond the FK co-op.  One-a-day measuring that sometimes seemed to be based more on pack change than new snow is my guess at the reason.

Also, the land above 1000' N and W from Allagash should be the orange or maybe the burgundy.  Areas near/above 1300' must've had 50% more than my back settlement 171" in 1983-84 based on what we found working there thru that winter.  

(Disclosure:  My measuring technique there was the same as I've used at my current location for the past 23 winters, where I average 1-2" less than the Farmington co-op 6 miles to my west.)

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NE CT is low....Kev averages what I do...Union even a bit more maybe.

That’s another great example of BOX being clueless about the microclimates of SNE and illustrates their love affair with BOS to PVD. Just pay everywhere else little too no mind .

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch 

You know ..., and we have now cycled through two distinct intervals where/when the models ( and even telecon spreads ) signaled at minimum, a seasonal cool spell, ..but then, they moderated as the days clicked off and what we got was barely normal. 

I'm already getting a little gun-shy about cold and here we are all of November 3rd.  

I guess it's early ... there may be a bit of interpretation magnification.   I mean, storms, cold or heat alike, all seem to come into extended ranges ominously...then correct toward manageable.  An error aspect of guidance that's been happening for several years, frankly. But maybe in a month one of these cool waves will be deep enough to correct to 'still somewhat negative' instead of disappearing.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ..., and we have now cycled through two distinct intervals where/when the models ( and even telecon spreads ) signaled at minimum, a seasonal cool spell, ..but then, they moderated as the days clicked off and what we got was barely normal. 

I'm already getting a little gun-shy about cold and here we are all of November 3rd.  

I guess it's early ... there may be a bit of interpretation magnification.   I mean, storms, cold or heat alike, all seem to come into extended ranges ominously...then correct toward manageable.  An error aspect of guidance that's been happening for several years, frankly. But maybe in a month one of these cool waves will be deep enough to correct to 'still somewhat negative' instead of disappearing.

All cool / cold shots have modified . I’d be shocked if we saw any accumulating snow in SNE at all this month outside of some remote cabin in the Berks  

[CoastalWx]

Later in the 11-15 day on the EPS looks good to me as it has last few days. The moderation prior to that has been in the cards. Nothing has changed.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Did anyone else notice the 12z guidance' et al pretty much kissed the back of the donkey's balls ?

I won't even look at guidance for a couple of weeks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It was snowing in Leicester MA for a bit this afternoon despite temps in the mid to upper 40s

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where is Redfield?

[dendrite]

Just had a bit of graupel mix in with a rain shower. 

40.7°

[Typhoon Tip]

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has...

That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -...

One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. 

At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly.  If this were Vegas I might put money down as a pass-over bet between bigger games...

Part of the problem is, that's been doing that in the models for years now.  Euro... GFS ?  doesn't matter.  Any cold, hot, storm or phone # I get from a girl at a f'n pub, overwhelmingly verify something less than initially advertised. 

We'll see - we may end up cooler out whence but I'd be little surprised at this point if it is as deep as EPS variance.  It'll probably be on the warmer inner curve of that mean if that last 7 years has any meaning

[George001]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has...

That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -...

One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. 

At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly.

I’m glad we are getting this garbage pattern out of the way early rather than wasting prime climo and kicking the can down the road on a pattern change to cold in mid winter.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Where is Redfield?

Tug hill plateau in NY

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just had a bit of graupel mix in with a rain shower. 

40.7°

Stay safe ya hear?

[powderfreak]

First snow magic today.  What a beautiful snowfall in the higher terrain.  Only a coating at home that since melted but 1,300ft and up is winter right now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First snow magic today.  What a beautiful snowfall in the higher terrain.  Only a coating at home that since melted but 1,300ft and up is winter right now.

Jealous 

[512high]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First snow magic today.  What a beautiful snowfall in the higher terrain.  Only a coating at home that since melted but 1,300ft and up is winter right now.

Nice!