Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: 42 years ago? that's riiight. The model is that old - 1979 ... other words, always - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Speaking of the Euro... D10 from 00z c/o Pivotal Weather It's a little interesting ( if not unsettling ) when the 850 mb, stereographic layout of the northern Hemisphere is this off-balanced/biased. There is no question that the weight or the warm tones, is more so than the cool tones. And, it seems evenly distributed, too... It's not like all the warmth is on one side, the cooler regions...the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Even EPS was showing it. Granted ensembles are a product of many members with misses and hits. I have always felt the ensembles do not have nearly enough variability or at least that they could be improved as far as representing the various outcomes possible for most looks . Would like a second set of ensembles that are a bit more “tweaked” from OP Like often ..the op shifts significantly and the EPS follows suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I have always felt the ensembles do not have nearly enough variability or at least that they could be improved as far as representing the various outcomes possible for most looks . Would like a second set of ensembles that are a bit more “tweaked” from OP Like often ..the op shifts significantly and the EPS follows suit The mean was sort of offshore despite showing QPF. I typically look for trends in the ensembles and also those that show the actual locations of low pressure from each member. I certainly can recall some differences in solutions from op runs vs EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 I would do anything to be here right now!! 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 "New snow accumulation 108 to 114 inches." If they had high speed internet access I'd move there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 That seems unrealistic!!! Would be so amazing to experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I would do anything to be here right now!! Not bad, 20 feet in the next two days. Do even Sheep live there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 lol that’s nuts. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Looks like a nice place to visit. Sheep Mountain LodgeSheep Mountain Lodge: Your Adventure Awaits! - Sheep Mountain Lodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Not bad, 20 feet in the next two days. Do even Sheep live there? Has to be some computer-generated glitch forecast. Just ripping from the HRRR or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Has to be some computer-generated glitch forecast. Just ripping from the HRRR or something. Next 72-hour snowfall. Note the amounts are in feet not inches. Max amount is 28 feet in the next 72 hours on Mount Marcus Baker . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Has to be some computer-generated glitch forecast. Just ripping from the HRRR or something. Looking at radar and models I think you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Not bad, 20 feet in the next two days. Do even Sheep live there?That's nutsSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looking at radar and models I think you're right. I bet its legit to be honest. Models have 12-24" of QPF in that area over the next 72 hours. You're taking ocean moisture and slamming it into 10,000ft of prominence and wringing out 20" of water in single digit temps up there. Those places can get 1,000+ inches per season it's estimated but no one really knows. Wish we had a high-res NAM aimed on those peaks, the resolution would probably resolve some incredible QPF amounts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 That much liquid falling from the sky so fast I just figure would set off some kind compressional warming deal or similar and turn it to slush or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I bet its legit to be honest. Models have 12-24" of QPF in that area over the next 72 hours. You're taking ocean moisture and slamming it into 10,000ft of prominence and wringing out 20" of water in single digit temps up there. Those places can get 1,000+ inches per season it's estimated but no one really knows. Wish we had a high-res NAM aimed on those peaks, the resolution would probably resolve some incredible QPF amounts. I may have to visit one year, looks like nice accommodations and a decent menu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I bet its legit to be honest. Models have 12-24" of QPF in that area over the next 72 hours. You're taking ocean and slamming it into 10,000ft of prominence and wringing out 20" of water in single digit temps up there. Those places can get 1,000+ inches per season it's estimated but no one really knows. Yeah that is a smoking. 36-72" in 12 hours easily, 100" 12 hours is doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: That much liquid falling from the sky so fast I just figure would set off some kind compressional warming deal or similar and turn it to slush or rain. Usually it’s the opposite… you get colder and snow levels drop the harder it precipitates, then rise when it lightens up. It is hard to process for sure that much water falling as snow in such a short period of time. But I’ve heard even at sea level there in Valdez, AK they can get snow rates of a foot per hour in cold storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 I guess no one lives there. 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Usually it’s the opposite… you get colder and snow levels drop the harder it precipitates, then rise when it lightens up. It is hard to process for sure that much water falling as snow in such a short period of time. But I’ve heard even at sea level there in Valdez, AK they can get snow rates of a foot per hour in cold storms. It’s like a foot of liquid overnight though. Seems hard to fathom with single digit temps. How does the temp even stay that low with that much warm pacific air being tossed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Surprised Ineedsnow hasn't booked a flight yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a nice place to visit. Sheep Mountain LodgeSheep Mountain Lodge: Your Adventure Awaits! - Sheep Mountain Lodge Looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I guess no one lives there. It’s like a foot of liquid overnight though. Seems hard to fathom with single digit temps. How does the temp even stay that low with that much warm pacific air being tossed in? Yeah even down at sea level they average (!) 326" in Valdez. If you average that much heavy wet snow at sea level, what happens at 10,000ft must be nuts. Can't imagine living in a place where you can get 15" in 90 minutes lol. The winter storm has brought extreme snowfall — 15 inches fell in 90 minutes in Valdez — made travel hazardous south of the Alaska Range. Normal suburban home but there has to be 6 feet of mushroom caps on the roof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a nice place to visit. Sheep Mountain LodgeSheep Mountain Lodge: Your Adventure Awaits! - Sheep Mountain Lodge Cabins buried by morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 I guess the trade off is you go like 6 months without seeing the sun... from precip and the solar cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Also drifts would be insane with the 55 to 60 mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Does it then get like 60 degrees the next day and melt it all? Just looking to see what the catch is. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 27 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Does it then get like 60 degrees the next day and melt it all? Just looking to see what the catch is. LOL No good looking women and too much meth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: No good looking women and too much meth So like rural NNE/America but with more snow? I’d need meth to shovel a foot per hour and my wife certainly wouldn’t stick around for that weather… so no women and meth checks out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Gfs is way more amplified for next weekend compared to previous runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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