40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Figured I'd take the opportunity to start this, while many are preoccupied with the next underachieving wind event. This will be the transition month, as the Pacific jet relaxes. We should begin to see a cold reservoir couple with the blocking that has been rendered useless throughout October. I would say shot of some snowfall for many is better than climo. See ya 11/20. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 November starts seasonably cool, but then perhaps a moderating period before another cold pattern sets in? Weeklies/ensembles show this pretty good today. You can see the cold delivery in the first week of the month but then it moderates into a milder pattern by late in the ensemble run: It's out in clown range, but hope the end of the weeklies are correct for late Nov/early Dec....that pattern would likely produce a lot of cold and snow threats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Buy. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Was gonna say, weeklies look somewhat active and blocky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Should name this thread....Will it ever frost? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Was gonna say, weeklies look somewhat active and blocky. Just hope the blockies last well into winter, and not fade as we hit Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 On 10/26/2021 at 8:08 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Should name this thread....Will it ever frost? had a very light frost in Methuen on Sunday morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Has that look of air mass where crispy mornings feature pond ice around edges, and still there in the shaded inlets late afternoon ... Nov 3-10 .. who knows thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Hope people realize that the "first frost fast approaching" thread starter was not an offering of met insight....just a general climo descent reference to kick the thread off. People seem to like pointing that comment out lol wasn't debating the warm October idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 Nice snowstorm at 228 for interior areas on the gfs 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm at 228 for interior areas on the gfs Euro says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Yeah this is about the the very best one could ever ask out of a Novie 6 Not sure how and what will manifest within, but that first 10 days of November has been signaled for quite some time as a period of colder temperatures …However so anomalous to be determined. That isn’t the first run above that suggested something similar might emerge. Got some Telecon support 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Time to bring some firewood in and get the wood stove going, oil's too expensive this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 11 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: Euro says no. Who cares what euro says honestly GFS has been very consistent that the period around the 5’th will have a trough over NE and that their will be A seasonably cold Airmass . That simply means we will have a chance at our first winter threat , probably Interior elevations of CNE but also Berks , N Orh in game . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Would be nice to see a few flakes during the first 10 days of November. Certainly looks like we'll have a few chances based on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who cares what euro says honestly GFS has been very consistent that the period around the 5’th will have a trough over NE and that their will be A seasonably cold Airmass . That simply means we will have a chance at our first winter threat , probably Interior elevations of CNE but also Berks , N Orh in game . It will be hard take the euro seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Just keep the signal there the next few days worth of cycles on the models to gain some momentum towards a potential threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It will be hard take the euro seriously Ya it has sunk into a dark place…what happened to that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Euro ensembles show the possibility of the 11/5-6 system. It won't really matter though until we're another 3+ days closer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles show the possibility of the 11/5-6 system. It won't really matter though until we're another 3+ days closer. Yes, got to get it a lil closer to make sure it’s not just a fantasy blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Another close call today on the 12z GFS run for the 4-5th next week, I think the NW areas of NNE would be in play for snow, Upper level temps look like the would support snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Another close call today on the 12z GFS run for the 4-5th next week, I think the NW areas of NNE would be in play for snow, Upper level temps look like the would support snow in those areas. I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm more interested in the system behind it...11/6ish. The 11/4 system is prob not going to be cold enough outside the higher elevations of NNE. The higher elevations are in play for the first one "if" the GFS is correct, That next one you mentioned looks like its has more cold air in place to work with too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 First 32F readings coinciding with first snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 They seem to have made some strides with GFS updates. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They seem to have made some strides with GFS updates. Moreso then the Euro it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: The higher elevations are in play for the first one "if" the GFS is correct, That next one you mentioned looks like its has more cold air in place to work with too. Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer). But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and this could change a lot still....the models almost certainly haven't figured out the orientation of the large ULL and embedded shortwaves yet...so even the first one could end up colder too (or warmer). But I do think there is likely to be a legit winter threat out of that whole trough/ULL somewhere on this forum between 11/3 and 11/7. Then it looks like we moderate for a while mid-month (which has been showing up on ensembles for a while now)....and then perhaps go colder again late month if the weeklies are correct....both the CFS and the Euro weeklies show a N PAC change by late month which produces much colder pattern. Some of these runs are cutting it to our west so the trough placement is definitely up in the air, Something to watch anyways now that the boring HHH has ended and we look to be seeing a more active pattern going forward, Lets hope the weeklies have a clue late month, It would be good to start Dec of with some snow, Always a better sign for winter when its starts early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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