ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: HRRR is pure Phil. There’s the meso low. powderbeard even loses power here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR is pure Phil. There’s the meso low. fACKed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC. It could. … I am really just trying to raise awareness. -NAO’s over the western limb like this one are correlative with suppressed/southern cyclone routes. Meanwhile … model runs trickling in doing so/adjusting deserves consideration. But this is a storm developing toward the E. If it doesn’t stall/retrograde it may not be as bad for NYC even if south. I suspect ACK and the eastern end of LI are getting whiplashed. As far as coastal MA the wind/925 mb jet appears synoptic PGF mechanized … CCB but it’s odd vert sounding. This system may in fact rapidly transition into a hybrid, particularly in a NAM-like way S solution coup de etat … Im leery of Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I might have to head over there to see that…wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Nam is already further west at 36 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 out to 39 NAM looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: out to 39 NAM looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Congrats Ida 2.0 But our attention more well to the south to see what develops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 crazy flooding eastern NJ I know this will shift around but someone is going to get creamed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 thats a bad solution for SNE power companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: thats a bad solution for SNE power companies 3k is similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 12k Nam wasn’t like the Hrrr, but 3K looks more like HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12k Nam wasn’t like the Hrrr, but 3K looks more like HRRR kev gets his heavy damage guessing other models might follow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Jersey shore gets 10+ on the NAM. ENE 2-5. Through 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Keep in mind those are 2 mb isobaric intervals. Index finger rule works usually 90+% or so … 1mb ~= 1kt. Maybe 1020 delta 982 mb = 38 kt middle BL jet and let wind products and experience do the rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Glad to see NJ get the flushing it needs. Keep it down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 part of our storm is producing a ton of tornadoes right now.. tons of energy with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: kev gets his heavy damage guessing other models might follow now It’s pretty inverted inland it seems. You need to look at mixing. It’s still windy, but it’s tough to tap the LLJ with surface temps in 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: part of our storm is producing a ton of tornadoes right now.. tons of energy with this Tons of TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tons of TDS. Check out his Twitter pretty crazy night in that area WxAtlantic @WxAtlantic · 5m We witnessed a catastrophe tonight. If you're religious, pray. If you aren't, just keep the people of these towns in your thoughts over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I mean this is nuts out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I mean this is nuts out there. you know its bad when theres a tornado emergency and the source says weather spotter confirmed tornado Massive Damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 GFS way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Annihi-fricking-lation down here. Drenching for 24 hours plus 60mph winds on top. And hate to say it but tucked in is usually the right answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I will say it's probably a good winter sign that we're getting a noreaster like this early. Usually predicts more like them later (Oct 2011 don't remind me so who knows lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 CMC hits pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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