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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My Davis and TAN say otherwise.  45 at home and 46 TAN

 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know how that goes. Those trees don’t come down from 45mph winds. The trees certainly had much higher.

The data is what it is. Highly doubtful my station bobs and TAN were all significantly off. The winds weren’t that impressive 

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20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

The data is what it is. Highly doubtful my station bobs and TAN were all significantly off. The winds weren’t that impressive 

I think what it shows is how often people over-estimate winds too.  45mph on fully leafed mature hardwoods is big severe wind to be honest.  It doesn’t have to be 60-70mph like many seem to think and then also assume it was that high for large tree damage.

45mph in a forest is big wind.  I know at the ski area and on the mountain, 40-50mph is serious wind.  I think we get numb to it because of high progs and people estimating higher… but measured 45mph is legit.

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

The data is what it is. Highly doubtful my station bobs and TAN were all significantly off. The winds weren’t that impressive 

I think you guys are missing the point. You had 50-60 ripping through the trees. Not 30’ off the ground or near a frictional surface like a roof with trees around it do disrupt the flow of wind. 

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2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

The data is what it is. Highly doubtful my station bobs and TAN were all significantly off. The winds weren’t that impressive 

You gusted 60-70 there. All of Taunton did .You can Debbie and deny all you want. You and Bob live in the coastal plain and were in the max area of LLJ with nothing between you and the ocean except swamps and houses. You don’t wipe out 20,000 outages from 45 mph gusts. We had that here waaaay inland and only lost 1800 to outages 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You gusted 60-70 there. All of Taunton did .You can Debbie and deny all you want. You and Bob live in the coastal plain and were in the max area of LLJ with nothing between you and the ocean except swamps and houses. You don’t wipe out 20,000 outages from 45 mph gusts. We had that here waaaay inland and only lost 1800 to outages 

Not likely 

Further East did . Big difference in damage between KTAN and the pics to the East. Nite and day difference . KTAN didn’t sniff those numbers 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You gusted 60-70 there. All of Taunton did .You can Debbie and deny all you want. You and Bob live in the coastal plain and were in the max area of LLJ with nothing between you and the ocean except swamps and houses. You don’t wipe out 20,000 outages from 45 mph gusts. We had that here waaaay inland and only lost 1800 to outages 

See I disagree.  I think you can certainly get those outages with gusts of 45mph.  In a fully forested neighborhood with mature trees, still leafed, with soaking wet ground? It doesn’t have to be 60+ to get big damage.  If a PWS in a yard measured 60 they wouldn’t have power for two weeks.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

See I disagree.  I think you can certainly get those outages with gusts of 45mph.  In a fully forested neighborhood with mature trees, still leafed, with soaking wet ground? It doesn’t have to be 60+ to get big damage.  If a PWS in a yard measured 60 they wouldn’t have power for two weeks.

45 is tough though for that widespread. Trees in SE MA pretty used to wind. 45 here even with leaves won’t do much. I’m not sure in Taunton,  but lots of pines here had damage too. Wasn’t just leafed out trees. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL why is this such a fight. :lol:

The whole time I have been chasing milfs he got confused and thought I wanted his Dilfs from ELectric Blue. It’s led to a string of confusion that can be seen in his post responses and it’s just sad to see unfold .

and literally Taunton looks nothing like Norwell, Marshfield .post storm ..I would think you know this .  My friends in Raynham and Bridgewater has same conditions as KTAN. Nothing like Amarshall experienced.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL why is this such a fight. :lol:

It’s rare that the people who experienced it are trying to convince others it wasn’t 60+ winds.  Normally you’ve got folks saying oh my god 60-70mph now and people have to convince them it’s not that high :lol:.

80-9mph frictionless on a dune above the water… 40-50mph through dense mature forests a county or two inland passes the smell test for me.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

45 is tough though for that widespread. Trees in SE MA pretty used to wind. 45 here even with leaves won’t do much. I’m not sure in Taunton,  but lots of pines here had damage too. Wasn’t just leafed out trees. 

I’m definitely not applying it to SE Mass… just the Tan area and the obs from there.  I don’t see why the ASOS would be wrong?

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The whole time I have been chasing milfs he got confused and thought I wanted his Dilfs from ELectric Blue. It’s led to a string of confusion that can be seen in his post responses and it’s just sad to see unfold .

and literally Taunton looks nothing like Norwell, Marshfield .post storm ..I would think you know this .  My friends in Raynham and Bridgewater has same conditions as KTAN. Nothing like Amarshall experienced.

You are a trainer for Dillfs That’s perfectly fine. Every now and then they sit up into your backend while you push up 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m definitely not applying it to SE Mass… just the Tan area and the obs from there.  I don’t see why the ASOS would be wrong?

Well Taunton would be SE MA.  My point was those trees probably experienced winds above that. I think we also discussed the ASOS not as open to the E and NE vs south? I wasn’t implying the ASOS was wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I live in the woods. So my Anny is way way off. I never use its obs 

Isn’t that what the discussion is about though?  How do you estimate winds at your place though?  Like how would you know it’s 50mph or whatever?

Thats why I think a PWS hitting 45mph in a forested suburban area is pretty damn solid wind.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The whole time I have been chasing milfs he got confused and thought I wanted his Dilfs from ELectric Blue. It’s led to a string of confusion that can be seen in his post responses and it’s just sad to see unfold .

and literally Taunton looks nothing like Norwell, Marshfield .post storm ..I would think you know this .  My friends in Raynham and Bridgewater has same conditions as KTAN. Nothing like Amarshall experienced.

No definitely not. But the LLJ did curl through there, especially more towards Bob. I’m sure areas near him had some strong winds. It’s too bad we lost a lot of stations due to outages. I’m hearing some stories of 90ish or more on the coast from PWS. I know Marshfield harbormaster had 88, and they aren’t on the water really. They are on an inlet with trees and some land to their east. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Isn’t that what the discussion is about though?  How do you estimate winds at your place though?  Like how would you know it’s 50mph or whatever?

Thats why I think a PWS hitting 45mph in a forested suburban area is pretty damn solid wind.

It is for sure 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Isn’t that what the discussion is about though?  How do you estimate winds at your place though?  Like how would you know it’s 50mph or whatever?

Thats why I think a PWS hitting 45mph in a forested suburban area is pretty damn solid wind.

You can tell approx wind gusts . The sound and the damage. You don’t break trees in every neighborhood from 45 mph winds . That’s how you know TAN ripped near or over 60. Every hood had it . I had 45 here and it did nothing except knock small limbs off 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well Taunton would be SE MA.  My point was those trees probably experienced winds above that. I think we also discussed the ASOS not as open to the E and NE vs south? I wasn’t implying the ASOS was wrong. 

Gotcha, makes sense.  I still think when we had that huge blow down up here like 3 October’s ago (?), I’m not convinced the winds were that much above 50mph despite acres leveled.

I dunno, I still think personal perception of wind leads to over-estimates.  If you can get a 2-M gust in the 40-50 range I still think that can do a lot of damage.  But you are right, those trees see that NE wind built into their climo/growth.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You can tell approx wind gusts . The sound and the damage. You don’t break trees in every neighborhood from 45 mph winds . That’s how you know TAN ripped near or over 60. Every hood had it 

That’s where we’ll just have to agree to disagree, ha. I think humans are terrible at estimating winds and that leafed out tree damage occurs at a far lower wind speed than many folks think.

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