Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Idk…haven’t been following the warnings. But the main core of the LLJ passes through 00-06z. I noticed you’ve ignored all questions about wind gusts ORH to Ginx . Never put yourself out there. We get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Was just looking at PYM. Looks like strongest winds may be between about 1:00-3:00 AM What you got for BDL? 50-55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I noticed you’ve ignored all questions about wind gusts ORH to Ginx . Never put yourself out there. We get it Haven’t looked at enough to make pinpoint forecasts…I just know to take the under on your numbers. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Anyone know how strong the storm is (mb) at the moment? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What you got for BDL? 50-55? 55 may be a bit tough but I think around 50 is very doable. Would probably occur somewhere between maybe 5-8 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I'll go with 48 mpg for peak gust at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well. This is a situation where I hope the RAP soundings are a little overmixed (as is its bias) because otherwise they show some real nasty potential (like October 2017). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Haven’t looked at enough to make pinpoint forecasts…I just know to take the under on your numbers. Yet you still don’t make a call . So you’ve got under 50mph. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Blue Hill has gusted to 45. I'd put the over/under at 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, PowderBeard said: Blue Hill has gusted to 45. I'd put the over/under at 64. I think over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yet you still don’t make a call . So you’ve got under 50mph. Ok Messing around with available guidance I think they have a shot to go over. I'd peg their peak wind gust around 47 knots if I had to pick a number right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 44 and dead calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Messing around with available guidance I think they have a shot to go over. I'd peg their peak wind gust around 47 knots if I had to pick a number right now. I have ORH at 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think over. For sure. 64 is run of the mill there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Anyone know how strong the storm is (mb) at the moment? Estimate 978 mb and position around 41N 68W approx 100 nm east of ACK. Will pass over or very close to buoy 44008 in about 3-4 hours. Currently about 985 mb there and strong NNE wind steady in the 30-50 knot range. The buoy that it was near a few hours ago has only slowly rising pressure telling us that the center is deepening as it pulls away to the west of that location. Unfortunately no other buoys much closer than these two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: For sure. 64 is run of the mill there. Given the strength and angle of that LLJ, I feel like Blue Hill is primed to rip off a big gust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Already far, far more impressive then Mehnri in my location in BOS. Rain has been moderate all evening but the wind has been picking up throughout the afternoon and is now sustained at 25-30 mph. Almost lost my umbrella 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 We're blowing pretty good now. Must be near 40mph or so in gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 It’s coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Blue Hill has gusted to 45. I'd put the over/under at 64. I'd put it at 75 tbh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Already far, far more impressive then Mehnri in my location in BOS. Rain has been moderate all evening but the wind has been picking up throughout the afternoon and is now sustained at 25-30 mph. Almost lost my umbrella stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I'd put it at 75 tbh.... I'll go with 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'll go with 71. In either case I'm taking the over considering everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Starting to see the dunes gusting over 50 knots. I see a 56 kt out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 so who's got the prize for top gust thusfar? i saw 64 but didn't scroll through all the pages...btw, got into an argument with someone today when I said noreaster, they said we don't get those until winter...ha, what happened nearly to the day 10 years ago I said?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, kdxken said: They have no 40 mph gusts for Hartford or BDL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I'm saying Blue Hills gusts to 82 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Inversion is a little stronger than modeled at GYX based off the 18z runs. NAM is probably the closest (a hair stronger than observed) but still rips off a few 35 kt gusts at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: They have no 40 mph gusts for Hartford or BDL lol. It’s one of the most laughable forecasts we’ve ever seen out of there. Legro laughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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