Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh look euro goes south with other guidance. 969 versus 978 and south???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The mslp is. Looks more like other guidance now. She ain’t was she used to be. It's 9 mb deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 way south, oh well. Next 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It's 9 mb deeper The last day it was kissing the coast. Now it’s inline with other guidance. Should be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Will have to watch for meso lows with these setups. Sometimes you get those slinging west. Some guidance has shown this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: way south, oh well. Next Lol a 969 with gales to storm force with 5 to 9 inches of rain is the new meh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol a 969 with gales to storm force with 5 to 9 inches of rain is the new meh with that track, IMBY, I don't see it happening. Maybe 20-40mph winds. Like Coastal said, any meso low could be a wildcard but that'd probably be more south coast or SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol a 969 with gales to storm force with 5 to 9 inches of rain is the new meh His "one-note song" summer posts continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 QPF getting sliced and diced at 12z. Still a heavy event for some, but none of those exotic near-record breaking totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Euro sub 980 S of LI not a bad look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Winds in SE Mass in loaded trees could cause outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: His "one-note song" summer posts continue. If this were winter people would be pumped. Guess they were expecting a foot of rain and 80 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If this were winter people would be pumped. Guess they were expecting a foot of rain and 80 mph winds. I mean 6” of rain and 50 mph winds will do the trick, any more than that is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 High wind watches for eastern Ma nothing in CT sorry Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 how is a HWW gust up to 45 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: High wind watches for eastern Ma nothing in CT sorry Kev They always start out there and then they move them west. Most of the Mets there are not familiar with interior SNE as they’re mostly new Mets from other parts of country other than Joe D and Nocera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: High wind watches for eastern Ma nothing in CT sorry Kev You hate to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 The trend south may not be finished... Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that. It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: how is a HWW gust up to 45 mph? Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 That said ...should the present Euro run prevail.. suspect the best wind along the northern cyclonic slope would incur as that 970 mb low is retrograding W along or just immediately astride/under L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They always start out there and then they move them west. Most of the Mets there are not familiar with interior SNE as they’re mostly new Mets from other parts of country other than Joe D and Nocera Interior is wedged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Interior is wedged. So you’ve got under 50mph all of interior and elevations? Right ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 EPS through 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They always start out there and then they move them west. Most of the Mets there are not familiar with interior SNE as they’re mostly new Mets from other parts of country other than Joe D and Nocera Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So you’ve got under 50mph all of interior and elevations? Right ?? I guess define interior? For you yea under 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England. Kevin tried to slip something he pulled out of his ass....almost worked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The trend south may not be finished... Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that. It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage - You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible. Plus there are a number of ways the formatter can generate that text. It may be the average winds in the entire watch area, or it may use a moderated max gust where it only takes part of your peak wind gust forecast, etc. But the 10-20 mph doesn't look great in that text product, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess define interior? For you yea under 50. Ok I’ve got over. We will see which idea works out better Inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England. It’s too bad you guys don’t know your own area and climo, whistle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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