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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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The trend south may not be finished...

Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that.  It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage -

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

how is a HWW gust up to 45 mph?

Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They always start out there and then they move them west. Most of the Mets there are not familiar with interior SNE as they’re mostly new Mets from other parts of country other than Joe D and Nocera 

Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England. :lol:

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The trend south may not be finished...

Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that.  It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage -

You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC. 

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24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible.

Plus there are a number of ways the formatter can generate that text. It may be the average winds in the entire watch area, or it may use a moderated max gust where it only takes part of your peak wind gust forecast, etc. 

But the 10-20 mph doesn't look great in that text product, IMO. :yikes:

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