klw Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 925mb is around... 2500'? up I think? dumb question: if 977 mb is at 1000' on average, does it equate in this setup that 925 is around 2500' or does it not work like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I have no interest in wind damage. That being said, the highest gust I have found, on any Wunderground station within 20 miles of here is 14mph. Wind is picking up, but it's just a steady breeze. My back yard is covered in Oak leaves. One Oak is nearly completely changed to gold color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Ryan’s opinion. Thought he would be a little more into this, but he knows a lot more than me so I trust him here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 hours ago, George001 said: I love to see these big rainstorms at this time. I don’t know how true this is but I have heard that when there are big nor’easters in the fall, often times that is a good sign for winter because we are establishing a favorable storm track, and those wind driven rainstorms now will be severe nor’easters with blizzard conditions at times in the winter. It can be, but not necessarily.....regardless, its nice to see the warm/dry pattern relenting to something more seasonable as the cold season begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just now, klw said: dumb question: if 977 mb is at 1000' on average, does it equate in this setup that 925 is around 2500' or does it not work like that? It would depend on environmental pressure. So if you were near the center of a 970 low, clearly 970mb would be near the surface. In this case at KBOS...925mb is about 2000ft up. This is when it pays to have soundings to help determine the reference from millibars to feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Ryan’s opinion. Thought he would be a little more into this, but he knows a lot more than me so I trust him here. Outstanding analysis IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All of it won't. I'm not ready to go insane with winds yet...still a lot to go right in order to mix. I am thinking 60-65 here. But could see higher if we can mix. Yeah I'm thinking Logan airport gets in the 60-65 range....but maybe they can crack 70. It's a good storm motion for them and the inversion does weaken some as it moves west....esp on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: CT Blizz will tape this to the ceiling 4 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Cape Anne might do well in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kidding, Paul....just bustn' 'em. Can't wait to get back. Don't worry...I know haha. Just throwing it back at ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It can be, but not necessarily.....regardless, its nice to see the warm/dry pattern relenting to something more seasonable as the cold season begins. Let's at least hope for upwelling as this thing passes by...at the very least, removal of upper ocean heat content so maybe won't be as quick to turn to rain at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pure gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Ryan’s opinion. Thought he would be a little more into this, but he knows a lot more than me so I trust him here. It's eye opening when you look at 925/850 but unfortunately we don't live at those levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Get on top of some of those bluffs in Truro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Let's at least hope for upwelling as this thing passes by...at the very least, removal of upper ocean heat content so maybe won't be as quick to turn to rain at the coast. Catch 22....I don't mind it because it provides an explosive baro zone.....odds are the cp is porked anyway with a deep easterly fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really. - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year. Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really. - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year. Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns. So...we do it again a week from Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: lol…I’ll take the way under for the deep interior under that 50-60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm bigly skeptical of winds that high away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 @dendriteninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: So...we do it again a week from Sunday? That look one month later would be really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: So...we do it again a week from Sunday? I'd suggest 10 .. 20% above the background climate signal - The mass field indicators ( telecon spread ... ) lend to plausibility by pure statistics - which doesn't unfortunately offer any specific insight on how or what happens, but it is' purely based on the numbers. We have a maintenance -NAO bouncing around but holding negative, while the PNA is doings so positive. But for me, the tell might be that the operational runs et al seem to have a more than less coherent +PNAP amplitude interval ..roughly Nov 3 to 11th in there. So, it's like early detection - whether it is that above, or something else as yet to emerge, an 'emergence' some modest favoring over baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm bigly skeptical of winds that high away from the coast. I’ve been thinking 50-55 here and todays guidance universally has made me highly confident in that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been thinking 50-55 here and todays guidance universally has made me highly confident in that I'll ne shocked if I hit 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I'll ne shocked if I hit 50mph. I think you’re easily 65+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I’m looking up and clouds probably 950 up are screaming from the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 I’ve lived in south Braintree for over 10 years. I wonder if I will experience the strongest winds since I first moved here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Zero clue what you're talking about or even getting at. Enjoy Africa I've always enjoyed Africa... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, George001 said: That look one month later would be really interesting Like seeing blue in the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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