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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If it was winter this would be tracking up the Hudson 

maybe not the time for this- but everyone is saying: it'd be a blizzy...and maybe...but wouldn't the prolonged easterly fetch toaster bath the majority of the region? I guess it all depends on airmass. food for thought i guess.

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1 minute ago, Supernovice said:

maybe not the time for this- but everyone is saying: it'd be a blizzy...and maybe...but wouldn't the prolonged easterly fetch toaster bath the majority of the region? I guess it all depends on airmass. food for thought i guess.

In reality. 

I hate the "if this were winter" or "if this were a winter storm" comparisons anyways. 

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You can see the multi-vortex busted ravioli look to this thing east and northeast of the Mid Atlantic over the ocean, looking over various satellite channels. 

I spoke at length about this over the last couple of days .. but it is really exemplified by these morning higher res loops.

The models were doing their meso-low foci dance because this system lacks the baroclinic focusing mechanics in the lower troposphere.  The entire region is cyclonic, but without that focusing mechanism, the vorticity has a tendency to fragment within that general cyclostrophic domain.  Baroclinic focus: a more typical thermal wall ... usually aligned from coastal/lower NJ to SE Mass ... etc - where ever that happens to be axial by in situ circumstance, but that is the general climate signal. 

The longer way that works ... when you see a lot of 850 ( use that level...) isotherms scrunched together, that suddenly open up on the immediate/astride west/NW side, that is an indication of an intensely defined and very upright tilted front along the axis of those packed isotherms.

Typically, due to continent and oceanic geographic circumstance, fresh cold winter air masses bleed into the coastal plain, and meet the perennial west Atlantic ridging and of course ...the warm sultry g-string is there. This boundary subtends lower than the 850 through the boundary layer beneath, at a bit of an angle toward the warmer side...  Such that, as jet mechanics at 700- 300 mb pass over from the SW..W, that d(mass) instantiates an inward restoring force and air flow moves toward those elevated jet streams from underneath, which only intensifies as the "tube" of wind max continues to feed over.  This lower level incoming/restoring flow encroaches upon the frontal wall as describe, and is thus forced to turn upright along that boundary very proficiently. By nature a warm flow ( relative ), with richer DP air... It is conditionally unstable" ...made to be absolutely unstable as it rises and then enters buoyancy from explosive release of latent heat from cloud condensation ..etc... The combination of the overriding jets with this buoyancy force creates very powerful vertical ascending mass of air; the areas with least resistance underneath the underside of that " giant elevated tornado"  ( kidding...) ends up being where the "main low" pressure aligns at the surface. 

One can visualize pretty readily, using that more idealized paradigm as described, how lacking the baroclinic focus at low levels leaves other patterns of forcing to determine where/what the surface lows will be.  

This is a tough wind and when therein forecast due to buck-shot meso tendencies ... The general cyclonic domain will have pedestrian breezes, then as others have noted ... a meso passes near-enough by and suddenly it's turbine time at an aeronautical proving ground.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Holy crap....12z NAM, lol.

Scooter better board up the windows and bring everyone to the basement.

Yeah...I'm actually impressed that despite the 'fuzzy' focusing ... the models appear to have coalesced around a meso-beta-scaled low feature there, approaching the SE zones - booya models!  Back in the day, we let the chips fall where they may with these weird busted open multi-focused lows.   I remember that big one that ended the 2014 season there was a system that did that - it was very intense, but couldn't get the internals around a coherent singular bomb so it wobbled three 'hook ins' around a common center - I still wonder to this day if missing the blizzard was cause of that internal struggle. As it were ... it sort of wrapped up the last of that years intense continental could and took it up into the Maritime and it seems to mild up and exit into spring within a week.

It'll be interesting if this thing has a nucleated wind event that shows up on velocity channels - that might be cool if that is detected.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Holy crap....12z NAM, lol.

Scooter better board up the windows and bring everyone to the basement.

I've never had NE winds on these leafed out oaks. They are falling, but probably 80% leafed at least. We survived the other October sou'easters with 60kts ok.

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I guess it's a good thing there isn't going to be any convection involved. I'm also curious to see how the precipitation shield unfolds as we move through the evening. The initial look screams just a slug of torrential rain region wide being on the NW side of the low with extreme dynamics. However, given the pressure falls you may see precipitation become much more banded and this introduces the development of subsidence zones so there could be some discrepancies in precip across short distances.  

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