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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

they did? About time. 

There are still some uncertainties with several pieces, however, even with the uncertainties the confidence I think for a pretty impressive wind event and power outages may be on the high side...I guess just a matter of how much of the region but that's tied into the uncertainties with track/placement 

I don’t see a high end damage/power outage for most of CT besides the SE coast and one property 20mi east of HFD. 

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see a high end damage/power outage for most of CT besides the SE coast and one property 20mi east of HFD. 

Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. 

I think Kevin is selling you the sizzle.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. 

Last night I went max gusts to 35-45 inland/45-55 shore with highest gusts in eastern/SE CT, 3-6” of rain (would probably go 2-5 now given recent guidance), scattered outages and an overall moderate impact event for CT. Decent event here but the good stuff is in LI, SE MA, and the Cape IMO. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Last night I went max gusts to 35-45 inland/45-55 shore with highest gusts in eastern/SE CT, 3-6” of rain (would probably go 2-5 now given recent guidance), scattered outages and an overall moderate impact event for CT. Decent event here but the good stuff is in LI, SE MA, and the Cape IMO. 

Maybe some waterspouts off Cape Cod? 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

with the euro wind fix or the wind threat in general? 

Uncertain about the state as a whole but coast/eastern sections looks a bit more concerning. 

Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. 

Gotcha.

lots to iron out though in the next 24-hours with some of the details. Certainly going to be strong winds...just a question of how much of the region gets into them. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The core is starting out warmer now. So the exact track on the 12z runs will be very important. Euro already has 70 mph gusts on Eastern Long Island. It also has an impressive sting jet south of the center. The wind gust product was improved on the recent upgrade to avoid the gusts being too high. So the tests that I saw looked more realistic.
 

 

8B8B9B3E-458F-4075-ABAB-FE5FD1660702.png
 

40E8B370-7A6D-47DE-8595-3492A42A3CFE.thumb.png.c70351e5184559d8462fc148a83681f6.png

It was fixed 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe some waterspouts off Cape Cod? 

Rain wrapped spouts ftw :lol: 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. 

Even if there’s an apparent fix—I need to see it work in reality. Other guidance is robust along the coast as you said though. Should be fun for someone. 

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC has the winds coming out of a more easterly direction than the GFS. 

So it’s an ’easter instead of a nor’easter I guess on the CMC.  lol. 
 

 Unless you live along the immediate coast of SE CT, RI and Mass, this is probably a yawner for most everyone else, unless this gets really tugged back to the west, and those 5-7” rains pan out for a large area.  Which is still possible, but we have guidance still disagreeing on how this evolves with regard to track and capture. Captures are always precarious for SNE, most times they don’t work out so well for most it seems.  But at least there’s some interesting weather to track regardless of how it shakes out. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So it’s an ’easter instead of a nor’easter I guess on the CMC.  lol. 
 

 Unless you live along the immediate coast of SE CT, RI and Mass, this is probably a yawner for most everyone else, unless this gets really tugged back to the west, and those 5-7” rains pan out for a large area.  Which is still possible, but we have guidance still disagreeing on how this evolves with regard to track and capture. Captures are always precarious for SNE, most times they don’t work out so well for most it seems.  But at least there’s some interesting weather to track regardless of how it shakes out. 

Days and days of rn with 0.5". what a joke

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