Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Idk pretty sure we reach it but we'll  see

Oh you will. Bet you go 45-50 gusts 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Idk pretty sure we reach it but we'll  see

If the option is to go with the NHC and Will

or you/ blizz I would like to place a wager 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh you will. Bet you go 45-50 gusts 

That's what I'm thinking..  I'll be at work but I'm sure I'll come home to no power.. we get a gust over 30 and it seems like we go out 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you thinking the 60-70mph gusts forecasts for BDL are overdone?

Going with the GFS?

Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. 

As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... 

But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ...  and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line.

There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

[Sugarloaf1989]

0.77" of rain since midnight.  55F and calm wind. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If the option is to go with the NHC and Will

or you/ blizz I would like to place a wager 

I wouldn't  bet much on this one 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's what I'm thinking..  I'll be at work but I'm sure I'll come home to no power.. we get a gust over 30 and it seems like we go out 

Unless you have an accurate anemometer, we'll never know....if trees fall over when you get 35mph gusts, then that means they fall over from sub-wind advisory criteria.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Going with the GFS?

Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. 

As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... 

But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ...  and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line.

There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

I'm not sure where some forecasts are getting their 60mph gusts in the interior from but I don't see it along and nw of 84. SE of there towards IJD and GON, sure. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Unless you have an accurate anemometer, we'll never know....if trees fall over when you get 35mph gusts, then that means they fall over from sub-wind advisory criteria.

And Ineedawindadvisory would be berate BOS for not issuing one. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And Ineedawindadvisory would be berate BOS for not issuing one. 

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

What’s your forecast for peak gusts ORH down to here and Ginx?

[Sugarloaf1989]

Connecticut River Death Valley is where big wind,  rain and snowfall totals come to die. Works for me,  huge Oaks,  old roof and house.  Don't want any damage while waiting for a place to live. 

[MarkO]

Looks pretty cool on water vapor. Looks like it has subtropical characteristics. Currently moving into colder SST's, but it was over what I believe were warm enough.

Edit, never mind, temps are colder than I thought.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Stein here at work in Plymouth 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

Heh...the Prudential - Blue HIll - ORH AP axis of 1K evil

[ineedsnow]

a little breezy here maybe gust to 20 congrats coastal areas

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Look to be headed for a weenie rainfall total here in KBED . Pouring again last hour 

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

i'm in Roxbury and the breeze is pretty light 

Breezy now-wind picking up.

[Cyclone-68]

A friend of mine is flying into Boston from Jacksonville (flight has already been delayed a couple of hours) and apparently she heard the pilot say “It’s going to be bad” regarding the flight. Yikes. I hope that wasn’t over the PA

Edit: came on right before takeoff..WTH

 

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTE

Scooter blown to South Weymouth?

[WeatherHappens]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Breezy now-wind picking up.

yup in the last half hour or so

[Baroclinic Zone]

wife has landed.

[weathafella]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

wife has landed.

She got in under the wire!

[rimetree]

56F and .6 in the Davis so far. Should be pretty nasty later.

[OceanStWx]

56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

I think a lot of the interior is likely to do better when the CAA kicks in Wed and erodes the inversion, winds go north.

[TalcottWx]

Called in sick today. Tough cold. I almost want to drive to cape and spend the night in this storm.

[Baroclinic Zone]

WInds meh so far at home.  17mph. peak gust.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

WInds meh so far at home.  17mph. peak gust.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Scooter blown to South Weymouth?

Considering he lives  there .. maybe blown to Marshfield. Dudes gonna rip cane gusts for hours