RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: they did? About time. There are still some uncertainties with several pieces, however, even with the uncertainties the confidence I think for a pretty impressive wind event and power outages may be on the high side...I guess just a matter of how much of the region but that's tied into the uncertainties with track/placement I don’t see a high end damage/power outage for most of CT besides the SE coast and one property 20mi east of HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 kinda surprised there isn't more of an inversion .. should be fun on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see a high end damage/power outage for most of CT besides the SE coast and one property 20mi east of HFD. Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus, Scott - ur getting obsesses with that serial killer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. I think Kevin is selling you the sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Out in the Southwest visiting some national parks. Figures I would miss out on a doozy. Had this feeling when I planned this as last week of Oct. has had some biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed...shoreline has the greatest likelihood for widespread power outages. Inland...a bit of a tougher call. 40-50 mph wind gusts are certainly on the common side around here in the fall/winter...but given the state of the trees plus all the rain coming it makes for a bit more in the way of uneasiness. Last night I went max gusts to 35-45 inland/45-55 shore with highest gusts in eastern/SE CT, 3-6” of rain (would probably go 2-5 now given recent guidance), scattered outages and an overall moderate impact event for CT. Decent event here but the good stuff is in LI, SE MA, and the Cape IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think Kevin is selling you the sizzle. with the euro wind fix or the wind threat in general? Uncertain about the state as a whole but coast/eastern sections looks a bit more concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Last night I went max gusts to 35-45 inland/45-55 shore with highest gusts in eastern/SE CT, 3-6” of rain (would probably go 2-5 now given recent guidance), scattered outages and an overall moderate impact event for CT. Decent event here but the good stuff is in LI, SE MA, and the Cape IMO. Maybe some waterspouts off Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: with the euro wind fix or the wind threat in general? Uncertain about the state as a whole but coast/eastern sections looks a bit more concerning. Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. Gotcha. lots to iron out though in the next 24-hours with some of the details. Certainly going to be strong winds...just a question of how much of the region gets into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 RGEM comes more in line with the NAM’s in regards to low placement. Looks like 12z consensus so far has been more east near the cape vs tucked in under LI. Will have to see what the global say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The core is starting out warmer now. So the exact track on the 12z runs will be very important. Euro already has 70 mph gusts on Eastern Long Island. It also has an impressive sting jet south of the center. The wind gust product was improved on the recent upgrade to avoid the gusts being too high. So the tests that I saw looked more realistic. It was fixed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe some waterspouts off Cape Cod? Rain wrapped spouts ftw 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well euro clown wind maps. I'm not aware that was fixed. Anyways euro is probably the most tame for wind. Even if there’s an apparent fix—I need to see it work in reality. Other guidance is robust along the coast as you said though. Should be fun for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: RGEM comes more in line with the NAM’s in regards to low placement. Looks like 12z consensus so far has been more east near the cape vs tucked in under LI. Will have to see what the global say. RGEM destroys us with 6-7 inches of rain (SW CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM destroys us with 6-7 inches of rain (SW CT) Ya it did on its prior runs too. Hope it’s wrong I don’t care for another ida repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The Euro is too. They fixed its wind products I read on the recent upgrade . So the 50-60 mph you see in CT would be likely. Very anomalous setup and something we rarely see Are you thinking 50-60mph gusts for most of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Are you thinking 50-60mph gusts for most of CT? 40-50 west of River and 50-60 east with the 60 gusts SE CT. Bombogen storms always perform . Wait , watch, and listen 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 GFS still east but still gets eastern areas good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS still east but still gets eastern areas good It looks like an inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS still east but still gets eastern areas good Yeah slightly more tame from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It looks like an inverted trough Bone dry for some: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 5 hours ago, amarshall said: Flying in from Ireland tomorrow afternoon. 65 knots on my app. Should be a good landing . Nice knowin ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 there is going to be a narrow axis (like a deform band) that sets up somewhere...probably from Cape Cod through RI into E CT. That llv is going to throw back some ample moisture into this system. Wouldn't be surprised to see an axis of like 5-7''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 CMC really pounds SE areas. Maybe moreso than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 CMC has the winds coming out of a more easterly direction than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Model’s having a lot of trouble nailing this down. Plenty of uncertainty close in. November like day today with the dark dank vibe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Amped said: CMC has the winds coming out of a more easterly direction than the GFS. So it’s an ’easter instead of a nor’easter I guess on the CMC. lol. Unless you live along the immediate coast of SE CT, RI and Mass, this is probably a yawner for most everyone else, unless this gets really tugged back to the west, and those 5-7” rains pan out for a large area. Which is still possible, but we have guidance still disagreeing on how this evolves with regard to track and capture. Captures are always precarious for SNE, most times they don’t work out so well for most it seems. But at least there’s some interesting weather to track regardless of how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Model’s having a lot of trouble nailing this down. Plenty of uncertainty close in. November like day today with the dark dank vibe. Thankfully no snow to deal with here, there would be meltdowns everywhere if this was January..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So it’s an ’easter instead of a nor’easter I guess on the CMC. lol. Unless you live along the immediate coast of SE CT, RI and Mass, this is probably a yawner for most everyone else, unless this gets really tugged back to the west, and those 5-7” rains pan out for a large area. Which is still possible, but we have guidance still disagreeing on how this evolves with regard to track and capture. Captures are always precarious for SNE, most times they don’t work out so well for most it seems. But at least there’s some interesting weather to track regardless of how it shakes out. Days and days of rn with 0.5". what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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