ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Models showing the potential for a major Noreaster discuss.. 1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 You forgot the fun part damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night into Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 That's a lot of worter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You forgot the fun part damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night into Wednesday. How high up is the top of the mixed layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 There is a tropical low off the east coast right now . Nhc gives it a 10 percent chance of developing. This interacts with the incoming low to enhance the rainfall in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is a tropical low off the east coast right now . Nhc gives it a 10 percent chance of developing. This interacts with the incoming low to enhance the rainfall in the east. I think its pretty much a lock for heavy rain.. How much who knows yet hopefully 12z gives us a idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I think its pretty much a lock for heavy rain.. How much who knows yet hopefully 12z gives us a idea I’m really just jumping into tracking this, but it looks like low placement is still one of the wildcards. It keeps jumping around from cycle to cycle. Also have to say I’m pretty surprised at those phase charts. The NHC lemon doesn’t really excite me, but a warm core-ish system would certainly increase confidence in a higher end rainfall potential IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 12 NAM bumping up for tonight before the main show even starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 NAM at hr 36 looks tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 NAM trying to form our next named storm woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 The upper level venting on NAM is nuts. Wind perpendicular to 250mb height lines. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: NAM trying to form our next named storm woah I thought it was Wanda? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 NAM going wild offshore at he 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM going wild offshore at he 54. ya hr 60 and beyond will be fun I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 Big windstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 It's a pretty evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 That’s a hell of a lashing on the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's a pretty evolution. not as much rain... you would think it would be more with a storm like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s a hell of a lashing on the coast. even inland areas get it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: even inland areas get it good Yeah decent rains, but I think there is going to be a coastal front and likely much cooler air inland. That limits gusts. You’d want this to sling to our west for stronger winds inland. Think 2017 and even 2019 for example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah decent rains, but I think there is going to be a coastal front and likely much cooler air inland. That limits gusts. You’d want this to sling to our west for stronger winds inland. Think 2017 and even 2019 for example. ya true 50 more miles would be good.. but I wouldnt mind that run now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Just an autumn noreaster, we've been told. Ho hum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 FV3 HI RES looks like it could be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: FV3 HI RES looks like it could be fun Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Winds are crazy on the 3k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Post its on tropicaltidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 RGEM floods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Gfs has 2 lows offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Didn't see 06 Euro posted, oh my. Does rake coastal Newburyport to Ptown with sustained gales 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 GFS is meh compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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