Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[Rtd208]

@wdrag Mt. Holly doesn't seem to be overly impressed with the next system per their morning discussion. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
  The main focus through this period is on the closed low that will be  
  progressing from the lower Mississippi Valley into the northeastern  
  U.S.. This should bring a round of rain starting possibly as early  
  as Thursday night and continuing until the dry slot arrives on  
  Saturday or Saturday night. At this point it doesn`t appear to be as  
  high impact as our current coastal low since this low will not only  
  be taking an inland track, but should also be weakening and filling  
  as it crosses the Mid Atlantic. Once this system lifts away, a cold  
  front could approach our region early next week, though it may not  
  arrive until Tuesday or Tuesday night of next week. 
   
  && 

[nycsnow]

 

[wdrag]

I'm leaving the thread title as is.... however,  I think our forum will receive a general 1-3" rain later Friday-Saturday. Models have quite a southern sweep of the trough and while it weakens northeastward through us during the weekend, too late. Inflow of PW near 1.75" has occurred and I see a 6-12 hour rain of 1-3" with leftover weekend showers topping a few spots off with possible 4" totals.  Depending on what we have by sunrise Wednesday, I may  include isolated weekly max total of around 11-12"  Still a little early.  Winds not as strong but soft ground still remains.  This one looks to me to be a potential flood potential enhancer (or delayed recessions etc) for NJ/se NYS. 637A/26.

[nycsnow]

Decent winds under this 

[nycsnow]

Upton really downplaying the winds 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 6z GFS joined the HRRR coming further west at 6z. It now has 70mph gusts in Suffolk. All the models are shifting around with the location of the loop. So this may come down to nowcast time.

GFS

HRRR

 

 

I thought with noreasters the highest winds are supposed to be further away from the center and much wider in scope?  With a low in that position, one would expect the highest winds to be further west by about 100 miles or so.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

For those interested in the potential tropical/subtropical transition of this storm (mainly after it impacts the NE US and moves slowly east across the western Atlantic), worth reading this summary linked below from the NWS about how a hurricane developed in the midst of the large circulation of the Perfect Storm in Oct 1991. 

Difference here is that the tropical cyclone that developed inside the Perfect Storm quickly moved north into Atlantic Canada and was only a TC for a little over a day (after being subtropical for 12 hours).  In our case, the tropical/subtropical system could persist for many days (til at least Nov 4 based on EPS and GEFS, possibly even a few days after that) as it drifts east and remains separated from the westerlies
 

 

They should have named that storm in 1991, it actually mars the records and TC count that they did not.

With the current storm, why does it evolve into a TC after it leaves instead of doing it here where the waters are warmer?

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought with noreasters the highest winds are supposed to be further away from the center and much wider in scope?  With a low in that position, one would expect the highest winds to be further west by about 100 miles or so.

 

This has a shallow warm core so there will be a damaging zone of winds closer to the center where it loops west. There is also no inversion on Eastern Long Island. So all the winds from around 950 to 975 mb should mix down in gusts

.

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000  -108                                                                 
SFC  986     7  14.9  13.0  89  1.9  13.8  18  46 289.2 290.9 287.5 316.1  9.60
  2  950   324  11.4  10.6  95  0.7  10.9  24  67 288.7 290.2 286.2 312.5  8.48
  3  900   774   9.0   9.0 100  0.0   9.0  32  74 290.7 292.2 286.5 313.5  8.00

 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has a shallow warm core so there will be a damaging zone of winds closer to the center where it loops west. There is also no inversion on Eastern Long Island. So all the winds from around 950 to 975 mb should mix down in gusts

.

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000  -108                                                                 
SFC  986     7  14.9  13.0  89  1.9  13.8  18  46 289.2 290.9 287.5 316.1  9.60
  2  950   324  11.4  10.6  95  0.7  10.9  24  67 288.7 290.2 286.2 312.5  8.48
  3  900   774   9.0   9.0 100  0.0   9.0  32  74 290.7 292.2 286.5 313.5  8.00

 

How’s the inversion for nyc area

[nycsnow]

Actually getting some decent winds right now 

[NJwx85]

Last night was pretty crazy in Southern Rockland. About 3 hours of heavy rain with embedded downpours and lots of thunder and lightning. Then it tapered off around 11pm for a couple of hours before coming back in around 1:30. Wind has started to pick up here and rain is squally. Storm definitely has that tropical feel but we'll have to see where that pivot occurs. Some models push the dry slot up into the Hudson Valley for a time while others keep most of the interior raining until late tonight. 30-40MPH winds with higher gusts will be sufficient to knock down trees given soil saturation. High chance of power outages for the North shore of LI, especially Suffolk. Low-Moderate chance elsewhere. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

They should have named that storm in 1991, it actually mars the records and TC count that they did not.

With the current storm, why does it evolve into a TC after it leaves instead of doing it here where the waters are warmer?

It’s listed as an unnamed hurricane in the records.

[nycsnow]

If we don’t get any wind speaking from the nyc metro area it’s gonna be a pretty meh event 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

If we don’t get any wind speaking from the nyc metro area it’s gonna be a pretty meh event 

There is wind in the NYC metro area.  It’s along immediate coastal areas where the models have been forecasting it to be.  Later on could be a much different story.

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

If we don’t get any wind speaking from the nyc metro area it’s gonna be a pretty meh event 

The winds were supposed to start to pick up until later today into tomorrow morning. patience! 

[bluewave]

Latest NAM gets 50 mph gusts to JFK and LGA with 70 mph near MTP.

[wdrag]

What I just wrote a special group of friends I84 corridor PA-BOS. Doesn't mean it's right but for anyone in there unaware, I think it's a useful heads up. 

Probably offline til 5P: then driving an ambulance overnight so may not be able to post overnight, if am on a call. 

 

Good Tuesday morning (Oct 26, 2021) everyone in CT-BOS. Some are aware that there will are no power tomorrow morning as wind gusts 50-70 MPH lash that region overnight tonight, for a 2-6 hour period, particularly 11PM-7AM. Be prepared.

 

The heaviest rain of 3.5-6" is down here in NNJ/se NYS and far ne PA. Winds there should gust 45 mph at times, taking out branches and uprooting a few ground sodden trees w scattered power outages likely.

 

The worst CT/e MA/LI later tonight.

 

Also, be alert for possible flooding of vulnerable small streams/basements the next day or so entire I84 corridor and also late Friday when another significant event arrives, tho less potent than todays. However, with saturated ground, the flood potential may be slightly elevated from todays.

[nycsnow]

Latest hrr brings the 48-54mph wind gust colors into ny harbor and parts of Staten Island now 

[crossbowftw3]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Latest hrr brings the 48-54mph wind gust colors into ny harbor and parts of Staten Island now 

If trends hold I’ll be very surprised if Upton doesn’t issue wind advisories for the rest of LI and maybe into NYC proper 

[nycsnow]

Gfs as well now has 48-54mph coming west into New York harbor and Staten Island. Wonder if upton does wind advisory nyc east this afternoon 

[Allsnow]

14 hours ago, nycwinter said:

future cast does not look as impressive for the city as it did at 6:00 pm it should have been pouring in the city by midnight is it will not be maybe 2 to 3 hours later so right away you take a inch of  rain off the table..

 

14 hours ago, nycwinter said:

even lee goldberg showed radar which might indicate by morning the heaviest band will be just to the east of the city if that is the case any will be  unhappy by rainfall amounts we shall see  when it is all said and done..

Storm total rainfall through 1 PM:

Central Park: 2.73"
Newark: 3.08"
LaGuardia: 2.15"
Islip: 2.60"
Bridgeport: 1.47"

Bands of rain will continue to rotate through the region over the next 12 hours or so.

[Santa Claus]

this low came further north and west than of the forecast, or am i crazy

[nycsnow]

Hrr consistent with the winds 

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this low came further north and west than of the forecast, or am i crazy

It did (as many do in the end)  

[nycsnow]

Buoy 4401 offshore has winds increasing by the hour now gusting to 65
 

[dWave]

breaks of sun in lower Manhattan

[nycsnow]

Boston radar starting to get a lot of lighting offshore 

[Tatamy]

Just checked some stations along Fire Island.  It seems that the winds have gone calm or nearly calm and the pressure has leveled off/bottomed out.  This is the case at a number of locations that I have looked at ranging from Ocean Beach on east.

[jm1220]

Rain starting to push back west a bit. 

[nycsnow]

Upton extended wind advisory to Nassau county