Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

future cast is the latest trends..

All future casts are trash. 

[nycwinter]

future cast does not look as impressive for the city as it did at 6:00 pm it should have been pouring in the city by midnight is it will not be maybe 2 to 3 hours later so right away you take a inch of  rain off the table..

[nycwinter]

even lee goldberg showed radar which might indicate by morning the heaviest band will be just to the east of the city if that is the case any will be  unhappy by rainfall amounts we shall see  when it is all said and done..

[dmillz25]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

future cast does not look as impressive for the city as it did at 6:00 pm it should have been pouring in the city by midnight is it will not be maybe 2 to 3 hours later so right away you take a inch of  rain off the table..

Fam really? Lol

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Doubt they go wind advisory let alone warning, Euro jumped east messing up his narrative

Models continue to bounce around.

Last 10 runs of the rgem.

 

 

[Nibor]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

future cast does not look as impressive for the city as it did at 6:00 pm it should have been pouring in the city by midnight is it will not be maybe 2 to 3 hours later so right away you take a inch of  rain off the table..

 

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

even lee goldberg showed radar which might indicate by morning the heaviest band will be just to the east of the city if that is the case any will be  unhappy by rainfall amounts we shall see  when it is all said and done..

[jets]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Models continue to bounce around.

Last 10 runs of the rgem.

 

 

It shifted west 

[Rjay]

Just now, jets said:

It shifted west 

I know.  Last 2 runs have both jumped west of the previous run. 

[jets]

Just now, Rjay said:

I know.  Last 2 runs have both jumped west of the previous run. 

Maybe the hrrr is on to something. Guess will see 

[Rjay]

I just don't know how anyone can be confident in track.   I'm not leaning one way or another right now.  This tuck track is a damaging track and there won't be too much notice if models come into agreement late in the game. 

[Rjay]

Gfs at hour 24 (and to be fair is does retrograde good bit)

 

Rgem at hour 24

 

 

This is kinda ridiculous.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I agree I think most people are underestimating this.

it makes me wonder why it's being underestimated..... we just had Ida in September, everyone should be on high alert for dangerous flooding and the media should be all over this, why aren't they?

 

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it makes me wonder why it's being underestimated..... we just had Ida in September, everyone should be on high alert for dangerous flooding and the media should be all over this, why aren't they?

 

Crisis fatigue is a thing 

[David-LI]

It appears that a moisture "fire hose" set up over White Plains.

Radar looking pretty active just to the south of Long Island. 

[Rjay]

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

 

 

[jets]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

 

 

Wow that would be a scary run for a lot of NJ and NYC!

[David-LI]

Just now, jets said:

Wow that would be a scary run for a lot of NJ and NYC!

Not scared. Bring it! 

[Intensewind002]

I haven't really been tracking this event so forgive me if someone has said/asked this already, but is this going to be similar to a closer to the coast version of the 1991 Perfect Storm? The retrograde and the fact that it may transition to a subtropical or tropical system makes me think maybe.

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

 

 

That would cause big time flooding issues. Good thing we did get a chance to dry out for a while after Ida but if that happens I don't think that it would matter.

[Rjay]

What's a little disagreement between the meso models *shrug*

 

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

 

 

Reminds me of an October version of the Snowicane in late February 2010

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I haven't really been tracking this event so forgive me if someone has said/asked this already, but is this going to be similar to a closer to the coast version of the 1991 Perfect Storm? The retrograde and the fact that it may transition to a subtropical or tropical system makes me think maybe.

fall version of the late February 2010 snowicane

 

[David-LI]

Maybe we should change thread heading to include the system name Invest 94L.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Maybe we should change thread heading to include the system name Invest 94L.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds 
is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, 
North Carolina.  This gale area is forecast to move 
north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some 
subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system 
by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander 
off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday, 
bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas.  By 
midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. 
coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by 
the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over 
the warmer waters of the central Atlantic.  For more information on 
this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your 
local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[SnoSki14]

Rgem casually dropping 8" over my area.

[Santa Claus]

one of the most complicated setups in some time

[David-LI]

That second low right off the coast will surprise us tomorrow night. That’s the issue with the guidance disagreement. Neither are wrong , it’s just that there are two lows not one. 
 

 

[MJO812]

Just got home from work

Very heavy rain here in Brooklyn

Bad to drive 

[Rjay]

[jconsor]

For those interested in the potential tropical/subtropical transition of this storm (mainly after it impacts the NE US and moves slowly east across the western Atlantic), worth reading this summary linked below from the NWS about how a hurricane developed in the midst of the large circulation of the Perfect Storm in Oct 1991. 

Difference here is that the tropical cyclone that developed inside the Perfect Storm quickly moved north into Atlantic Canada and was only a TC for a little over a day (after being subtropical for 12 hours).  In our case, the tropical/subtropical system could persist for many days (til at least Nov 4 based on EPS and GEFS, possibly even a few days after that) as it drifts east and remains separated from the westerlies