Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[wdrag]

Wont change title numb ens despite being close to that for just the first storm.  I think I want to see what we have on the ground by 8P Tue before I 2" to the weekly total.  I think we have our hands pretty full with Tuesday-Tuesday night. 

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wont change title numb ens despite being close to that for just the first storm.  I think I want to see what we have on the ground by 8P Tue before I 2" to the weekly total.  I think we have our hands pretty full with Tuesday-Tuesday night. 

@wdrag any additional thoughts on the Friday/Saturday storm?

[Rtd208]

Apparently the 18z Euro gets the storm down to 969mb. 

[nycsnow]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The good news from a forecast confidence perspective is that all the models agree on the heavy rain and flash flood potential. So we have excellent agreement in that part of the forecast. The more tricky part of the forecast is the high wind potential.Several pieces of guidance like the Euro/EPS/RGEM/and HRRR loop the low back closer to MTP. Since that part of the forecast would be Wednesday night, there is time to issue high wind warnings after the 0z runs tonight should they be necessary. The HRRR gusts in knots would require high wind warnings for Long Island. Storms that loop back west are notorious for wind damage near their paths.

 

 

 

 

Wow that still has winds around 50 for nyc area 

[mob1]

32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Apparently the 18z Euro gets the storm down to 969mb. 

Has decent winds even here 

[nycsnow]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Has decent winds even here 

How strong?

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, nycsnow said:

How strong?

40-60

[nycsnow]

Hrrrr is wild 50-70mph winds cnj east 

[David-LI]

So nobody is going to talk about 0z HRRR winds?

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

So nobody is going to talk about 0z HRRR winds?

Let’s see what the other overnight mesos put out.

[David-LI]

RIP LI power if the HRRR verifies

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrrrr is wild 50-70mph winds cnj east 

Backs in all the way from Nantucket. Doesn't really weaken till it nears NJ coast.

Lots of tree damage if correct. The preceding rains will weaken soils.

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Backs in all the way from Nantucket. Doesn't really weaken till it nears NJ coast.

Realistic?? I guess we’ll see soon what other models do lol

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

So nobody is going to talk about 0z HRRR winds?

Even crazier the next frame. Some other models were showing this in the morning before backing off. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

RIP LI power if the HRRR verifies

The Euro has been showing this potential since yesterday at least.  The question is whether these winds mix down over land vs the coastal waters as modeled.  SLP won’t be deepening as it retrogrades to the west and SW over the coastal areas.  It will have leveled off in intensity as it makes this motion and would tend to help spare land areas.  Models that bring the center of SLP closer to the NY region have been relatively consistent with the idea of the strongest winds mixing down over the coastal waters.  You won’t have to go far to find these winds as they would rake areas including LI Sound and the Great South Bay.

[Greg g]

It’s absolutely dumping here right now in rockland.. raining so hard can’t see anything when driving

[jm1220]

HRRR would be a nightmare anywhere near the coast. Has big rain amounts too, 3-5" areawide. Lots of tree damage if that materializes.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Euro has been showing this potential since yesterday at least.  The question is whether these winds mix down over land vs the coastal waters as modeled.  SLP won’t be deepening as it retrogrades to the west and SW over the coastal areas.  It will have leveled off in intensity as it makes this motion and would tend to help spare land areas.  Models that bring the center of SLP closer to the NY region have been relatively consistent with the idea of the strongest winds mixing down over the coastal waters.  You won’t have to go far to find these winds as they would rake areas including LI Sound and the Great South Bay.

This.   I don't think the winds would mix down to the max potential once the heavy rains are done-by the time the wind field gets here alot of the  heavy rain is largely done.   So we'd have winds but maybe 50% of what the models are showing.

[nycwinter]

nick gregory future cast only showed 2 inches of rain in the city from this storm.

[nycwinter]

we missed out on a inch already as storms passed to the west of the city..

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

nick gregory future cast only showed 2 inches of rain in the city from this storm.

Part of the reason I haven't watched a TV weather forecast in 15 yrs

[nycwinter]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Part of the reason I haven't watched a TV weather forecast in 15 yrs

future cast is the latest trends..

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This.   I don't think the winds would mix down to the max potential once the heavy rains are done-by the time the wind field gets here alot of the  heavy rain is largely done.   So we'd have winds but maybe 50% of what the models are showing.

There is no question that the departure of the heavy rains is going to effect the ability of the stronger winds to mix down.  That’s a given.  When the first round of heavier echoes went through my area earlier I gusted to over 20 mph. Now it’s back to almost calm with the lighter rain that I am seeing now.

[Tatamy]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we missed out on a inch already as storms passed to the west of the city..

Not quite.  I am at 0.45” so far with the showers and storms over eastern PA.  I figure to be near an inch by 1-2 am.

[Tatamy]

0z NAM and 3K NAM has me getting 5-6” with this event.

[Brian5671]

Both NAMS are further east and weaker-the regular nam starts the loop south of Nantucket....rain the main story for us verbatim not wind

[David-LI]

Will the euro really cave to the NAM?

 

[jets]

Crazy on the difference between Nam and hrrr!. This is ridiculous 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

@wdrag any additional thoughts on the Friday/Saturday storm?

At this point, I see a sizable event,  slower than currently modeled but my interest is what is going on now.  Just pounded 3/4" in less than hr here and i see 2+ inches to my east where a flood warning in effect.  I think we've got a big problem ahead for parts of our forum. Wind rain-power. It's been underplayed too much. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, wdrag said:

At this point, I see a sizable event,  slower than currently modeled but my interest is what is going on now.  Just pounded 3/4" in less than hr here and i see 2+ inches to my east where a flood warning in effect.  I think we've got a big problem ahead for parts of our forum. Wind rain-power. It's been underplayed too much. 

I agree I think most people are underestimating this.