Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[thunderbolt]

  On 10/25/2021 at 7:53 PM, qg_omega said:

You can’t toss 0z and 6z because they don’t fit the narrative.  If the low ends up east of montauk, it’s another GFS win

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Just curiosity what storm did GFS hit on and how far in advance was it

[MJO812]

  On 10/25/2021 at 7:53 PM, qg_omega said:

You can’t toss 0z and 6z because they don’t fit the narrative.  If the low ends up east of montauk, it’s another GFS win

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Nam is well east of the euro

[Brian5671]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:02 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam is well east of the euro

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Still drenches us with the loop south of Long Island. Big rainmaker no matter what.

[MJO812]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:04 PM, Brian5671 said:

Still drenches us with the loop south of Long Island. Big rainmaker no matter what.

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Definitely 

[mob1]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:04 PM, Brian5671 said:

Still drenches us with the loop south of Long Island. Big rainmaker no matter what.

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The entire evolution of the storm is completely different than its last run. After this initial heavy rain the morning, the NAM now shows a narrow inverted trough like feature slowly rotating through parts of the area. Winds in SE New England are insane. 

[mob1]

This rotates into the Boston area 

[nycsnow]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:10 PM, mob1 said:

The entire evolution of the storm is completely different than its last run. After this initial heavy rain the morning, the NAM now shows a narrow inverted trough like feature slowly rotating through parts of the area. Winds in SE New England are insane. 

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Looking pretty lame on winds for us 

[Neblizzard]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:15 PM, nycsnow said:

Looking pretty lame on winds for us 

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Who wants wind with all that rain?

[nycsnow]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:18 PM, Neblizzard said:

Who wants wind with all that rain?

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I’d prefer the wind over rain tbh lol

[jconsor]

 

[qg_omega]

Doubt they go wind advisory let alone warning, Euro jumped east messing up his narrative

[MJO812]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:40 PM, qg_omega said:

Doubt they go wind advisory let alone warning, Euro jumped east messing up his narrative

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They should go to a warning. It will be windy and the eps did go slightly east but still tucked in.

[MJO812]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:18 PM, Neblizzard said:

Who wants wind with all that rain?

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There will be winds with this. He wants a hurricane lol

[wdrag]

Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going.  One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts.  

More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station.  Hopefully it does well. 

[lee59]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:45 PM, wdrag said:

Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going.  One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts.  

More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station.  Hopefully it does well. 

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Good luck with the weather station. I just checked out the tempest, very interesting. I currently have Davis.

[USCG RS]

  On 10/25/2021 at 4:50 PM, mob1 said:

UKMET is very tucked in as well, though it doesn't show any winds as the low is basically on top of us (and occluding) before slowly drifting south. 

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  On 10/25/2021 at 4:40 PM, Rjay said:

Euro/eps vs everything, re: a more tucked in solution 

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A deadly combo

[USCG RS]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:29 PM, jconsor said:

 

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100%

[Tatamy]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:51 PM, lee59 said:

Good luck with the weather station. I just checked out the tempest, very interesting. I currently have Davis.

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I have both.  Davis is better.  Weatherflow is not as good with rain fall amounts.  In heavy rains the ultrasonic wind equipment gets faded out so you don’t get accurate wind measurements. Stick with Vantage Vue or Vantage Pro 2.

[CIK62]

LOOKS LIKE I COULD GET 50MPH(bottom) GUSTS HERE IN CI TUES MIDNITE INTO WED,  while Cape Cod is murderlized around then by the GFS.

[tdp146]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:45 PM, wdrag said:

Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going.  One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts.  

More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station.  Hopefully it does well. 

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Very much like the weatherflow. Sleek all in one design. Like others have said, it’s not there yet for accuracy on the rainfall, but everything else is nice.
I think I spotted you on the weatherflow map way up there in the NW corner of NJ  

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

18z GFS still has some really crazy winds for ENE at 925

[bluewave]

  On 10/25/2021 at 10:04 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

18z GFS still has some really crazy winds for ENE at 925

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60-70 mph near MTP and 80 mph near MVY. We will really have to watch where that cyclonic loop occurs for the winds. Those storms that back in from the east are notorious for wind damage near the center.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Radar looks good in regards to the coastal

[qg_omega]

  On 10/25/2021 at 10:39 PM, MJO812 said:

Radar looks good in regards to the coastal

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Not the costal it’s the front

[lee59]

  On 10/25/2021 at 9:39 PM, Tatamy said:

I have both.  Davis is better.  Weatherflow is not as good with rain fall amounts.  In heavy rains the ultrasonic wind equipment gets faded out so you don’t get accurate wind measurements. Stick with Vantage Vue or Vantage Pro 2.

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thanks for the info

[jets]

Well pressure change explains it all. It’s deepening quick 

 

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=us&time=current&field=pres2h

[bluewave]

The 18z RGEM came west with the cyclonic loop closer to the 18z HRRR.

 

[wdrag]

  On 10/25/2021 at 9:53 PM, tdp146 said:

Very much like the weatherflow. Sleek all in one design. Like others have said, it’s not there yet for accuracy on the rainfall, but everything else is nice.
I think I spotted you on the weatherflow map way up there in the NW corner of NJ  

 

 

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I'll trust the rain and compare to nearby stations and cocorahs.  Think I'll know more at 6A.  Linquenda Dr. Beautiful up here - very very very fortunate. I do not want to be disappointed but facts are facts so, should know more by Sat night. 

[wdrag]

  On 10/25/2021 at 8:51 PM, lee59 said:

Good luck with the weather station. I just checked out the tempest, very interesting. I currently have Davis.

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Davis is the standard... you have one of the best. I just didn't want to take that extra cash away from family.  Also, I don 't like paying yearly subscription to share data. However, Davis is I think one of the best. 

[qg_omega]

  On 10/25/2021 at 11:26 PM, wdrag said:

I'll trust the rain and compare to nearby stations and cocorahs.  Think I'll know more at 6A.  Linquenda Dr. Beautiful up here - very very very fortunate. I do not want to be disappointed but facts are facts so, should know more by Sat night. 

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Heavy rain is not reliable on Weather Flow stations due to the sensor.  I have one and it’s good for winds and temp