Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gonna have to watch to see if this backs in more. As it shows now it would be an impressive storm with 3-5" totals.

Very strong winds for the coast. 

If the Euro performs reasonably well with this, then maybe the big moist physics upgrade will turn out to be a success. The hope is that the coastal storm track suppression issue with our snowstorms will be fixed. It would be nice seeing the Euro amped up with snowstorms like the NAM was with the January 16 blizzard.

 

The 12 EPS is more tucked in than the OP

 

[Allsnow]

We always get a powerful storm when the nao tanks 

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

This product only shows wind gusts of up to 60 MPH.  By extropolation and the fact that both the Euro and NAM are forecasting SLP with pressures in the 970's I would argue that off shore wind gusts would have to be in the range of 80 - 100 mph with resulting seas.

BOX already acting on high wind watches for their CWA—definitely going to be rocking on the coasts. Gusts 20-40 seem more likely the further inland one goes 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We always get a powerful storm when the nao tanks 

As far as damage goes I'm actually more concerned about the Friday system. 

That's a deep anomaly and a strong gradient that's been trending stronger on the ensembles. 

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the Euro performs reasonably well with this, then maybe the big moist physics upgrade will turn out to be a success. The hope is that the coastal storm track suppression issue with our snowstorms will be fixed. It would be nice seeing the Euro amped up with snowstorms like the NAM was with the January 16 blizzard.

 

The 12 EPS is more tucked in than the OP

 

EPS was not upgraded, correct?

[MJO812]

Gfs is closer than the 12z run

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

EPS was not upgraded, correct?

Looks like the major upgrade also improved the EPS.

https://www.ecmwf.int/file/299239/download?token=QzX-fS7a

On 12 October, ECMWF implemented the second upgrade of its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in 2021. IFS Cycle 47r3 includes
numerous changes to the forecast model, observation usage and data assimilation system, with contributions from many teams across the Centre. There are major developments to the representation of moist physics in the model and increased observation usage in cloudy regions in the assimilation. The upgrade improves the large- scale atmospheric circulation and reduces tropical cyclone track errors in both high-resolution (HRES) and ensemble (ENS) forecasts. Several forecast products are modified, such as visibility and wind gusts, and new products are introduced, including clear-air turbulence.

Cycle 47r3 brings a major revision to the representation of moist physics in the IFS as well as improvements in the assimilation of observations and increased usage of satellite data in cloudy regions through the extension of the ‘all sky’ approach.
An important impact on the forecast is the improvement of the atmospheric circulation, as seen in the increase in skill of extratropical geopotential heights and winds, and with a reduction in wind errors in the tropics of several per cent. The ensemble-mean of error in tropical cyclone position is reduced by 10% between forecast days 2 and 5. There are changes to the character of precipitation, with improvements in the precipitation PDF and in strongly forced convective systems. As well as the many positive signals, a significant change in the physics inevitably leads to some deteriorations, for example in total cloud cover, and these will be addressed in future IFS cycles. There are several new forecast products, such as clear-air turbulence, and improvements to existing products, including visibility and wind gusts.
Overall, the package of changes in Cycle 47r3 is an important step in the development of the IFS, improving performance overall, extending our use of existing observations and providing a stronger foundation for further development of the model and data assimilation at current and higher resolutions.

[David-LI]

GFS doesn't seem to have the strong winds shown in the euro.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS doesn't seem to have the strong winds shown in the euro.

It did shift west from 18z

[nycwinter]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is closer than the 12z run

i have noticed most of the local mets use the gfs for precip amounts not the euro..

[forkyfork]

given the eps and current sst anomalies i'm on team tucked in

[David-LI]

I like the visible eye at hour 61.

[bluewave]

The 18z extended HRRR looks more like some of the EPS members.

 

[MJO812]

Gefs is also more tucked in compared  to 12z.

[wdrag]

Topic title amounts increased (conservatively I hope) this Sunday evening and have split out the OBS thread for the first storm (tonight-8A Wed). 

Lots of good modeling documentation-imagery has been added previously to this thread. Keep it going.  

I can't add much more with any confidence til 6A Monday.  I'm still not sure where the worst of this will be, but if it were winter, this storm would be getting much more press with a massive snow storm axised 90 or more miles north of the 850 Low. 

[Allsnow]

18z euro tucked in even more 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro tucked in even more 

Crazy

Forky will most likely be right with this. 

[thunderbolt]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crazy

Forky will most likely be right with this. 

It’s funny how we’re all rooting for closer to the coast but we all know damn well if this was in the middle of January we would all be on Suicide watch

[CIK62]

KWO-35 does not even mention the wind in the Part 2 saga on Friday/Saturday, while models show  a few hours of 40-60mph gusts then.      This is the peak of the wind action.

They say we will barely  get to 30mph. on Mon/Tues too, which could be right.

[dmillz25]

Im in the DR for this but definitely keeping tabs on this

[MJO812]

Nam is coming in further west 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

The EPS is increasingly suggesting the potential for a high-end rainfall in and around the NYC Metro Area:

[MJO812]

The storm sits and spins 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

Yikes at that Nam run. Very strong winds too.

Breaks the inversion hence the much warmer temperatures this run for Tuesday. Also matches Euro/EPS

If trends continue it's gonna get ugly.

[Cfa]

Yet another subway series (of flooding) it seems.

[David-LI]

27 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Yet another subway series (of flooding) it seems.

Is this happening more frequently? It seems that way.

[nycwinter]

news 4 ny still has 1-2 inches on their maps for nyc hmm..