Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[bluewave]

Looks like an impressive hybrid-type development. 

 

 

[wdrag]

Early morning WPC outlooks: Heaviest rain eastern part of the subforum on storm one. Two storm totals from WPC, general 5" for most of the NYC subforum and spotty 7" MA. 

[SnoSki14]

I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. 

I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. 

The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season. 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like an impressive hybrid-type development. 

 

 

NHC still behind the curve. I think the Northern Gulf disturbance will exhibit the characteristics of weak TC much sooner than what their graphic depicts (I mean at least they finally acknowledge the potential).  The 6z GFS has a TD/STC off the southeast coast in 30 hrs. Either way break out the notes on hybrids/STC’s …

Intensity-wise, most of this passes as semantics, but the big takeaway is what this evolution would mean for track. A true tropical development would bring the surface low tucked in (north/west)…

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

NHC still behind the curve. I think the Northern Gulf disturbance will exhibit the characteristics of weak TC much sooner than what their graphic depicts (I mean at least they finally acknowledge the potential).  The 6z GFS has a TD/STC off the southeast coast in 30 hrs. Either way break out the notes on hybrids/STC’s …

Intensity-wise, most of this passes as semantics, but the big takeaway is what this evolution would mean for track. A true tropical development would bring the surface low tucked in (north/west)…

So that means the low can come further west ?

[Rtd208]

With the potential for several inches of rain over the 7 days we are actually lucky things dried out for a while after Ida. With that said flooding still looks like a concern with storm #1 and potentially storm #2.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So that means the low can come further west ?

The low level flow has an easterly component. Look at surface to 850 mb wind directions off the East coast 24-48 hrs. A non-vertically stacked (weak) TC will end up further west than a baroclinic low that is driven by upper levels. 

[wdrag]

I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. 

I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. 

The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season. 

warmer SST cause the tuck in

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??

60 mph winds and 8-10 inches of rain Walt?

 

[forkyfork]

hmm

[ineedsnow]

Just now, forkyfork said:

hmm

hr42 996mb

[Rjay]

The Ukie and Euro for storm 1

 

 

[CIK62]

The worst 24hr.period  I could find:

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

60 mph winds and 8-10 inches of rain Walt?

 

By Saturday yes, and probably parts of CT, e Li on various elements.

Will start an OBS thread for the first one with more defined expectations, probably at 6PM today. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

hr42 996mb

If it's a subtropical or tropical system it's gonna get captured and forced further west. 

We really won't have an answer until tomorrow afternoon the earliest and possibly not until the event begins. 

[qg_omega]

Main storm is Tuesday

[Rjay]

Ukie crush job

 

[Rjay]

Imagine we get another 10" month lol 

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Ukie crush job

 

Hopefully this will look the same and be snow this winter.

[SnoSki14]

Very Ida-esque on the Ukie. Wonder if Euro will follow

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very Ida-esque on the Ukie. Wonder if Euro will follow

Cmc is gfs like

[MJO812]

Euro

[Tatamy]

12z Euro 10 m AGL Wind Gusts - If you are on LI make sure your generators are ready to go...

[Tatamy]

12z NAM 10 m AGL Wind Gusts

[Tatamy]

This product only shows wind gusts of up to 60 MPH.  By extropolation and the fact that both the Euro and NAM are forecasting SLP with pressures in the 970's I would argue that off shore wind gusts would have to be in the range of 80 - 100 mph with resulting seas.

[Allsnow]

Euro is tucked in more with 3-6 inches of rain area wide 

[bluewave]

Impressive subtropical structure on the 12z Euro. Convection wraps almost completely around the center. An eye-like feature briefly develops. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is tucked in more with 3-6 inches of rain area wide 

Gonna have to watch to see if this backs in more. As it shows now it would be an impressive storm with 3-5" totals.

Very strong winds for the coast. 

[Rtd208]