Obs and nowcast severe storms risk 2P-9P Saturday October 16, 2021

[wdrag]

Still looks to me as posted by SPC yesterday..most gusts under 40 knots but per their slight risk area, added this thread.  HRRR suggests greatest threat of SVR that crosses into our subforum should be I84 northward. 

Please follow SPC outlooks/watches and NWS statements/discussions/warnings/reports. 

[wdrag]

 0752 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts and a marginal tornado threat
   are possible through the afternoon over portions of the Mid-Atlantic
   and New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified -- yet still progressive -- mid/upper-level
   pattern will affect the CONUS through the period.  A deep trough --
   initially located from far northern ON across the upper Great Lakes
   to AR -- will shift eastward to western QC, the inland Mid-Atlantic,
   the Carolinas, and GA by the end of the period. As this occurs, the
   basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from
   western OH to the Mid-South -- will pivot northeastward and
   accelerate, reaching Lake Ontario, central PA and central VA by 00Z.
    This perturbation then will eject northeastward across QC and New
   England overnight while weakening, and while other, trailing
   shortwaves move through the base of the larger-scale trough. 
   Synoptic ridging will cross the Rockies, while a sharp trough
   approaches the Pacific Northwest (but still offshore at 12Z
   tomorrow).

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from Lake Ontario
   across western NY, northwestern PA, WV, southwestern VA, to southern
   AL and the northwestern Gulf.  By 00Z, the front should reach
   western New England, coastal NJ/Delmarva, the eastern Carolinas, and
   northern FL.  By 12Z, the cold front should be over CONUS land only
   in ME and central FL, offshore elsewhere.

   ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
   A low-CAPE/strong-shear convective event is expected in the
   Northeast today, with the delineation between threat categories
   realistically fuzzier than can be depicted by a sharp categorical
   contour line on a map.  A frontal/prefrontal band of thick clouds
   and precip, with isolated embedded thunderstorms, is ongoing from
   portions of northern/western NY and Lake Ontario across western PA
   and WV to northeastern TN.  Through the remainder of the morning and
   into early afternoon, convective organization and coverage each
   should grow, with a gradual increase of the severe-wind and tornado 
   threat from initially marginal and very isolated nature now.

   The convective band will encounter a warm sector undergoing gradual
   destabilization, from both theta-e advection and muted diabatic
   heating.  This will help to reduce already weak MLCINH and offset
   modest mid/upper-level lapse rates just enough to support peak/
   preconvective MLCAPE of 250-750 J/kg.  Very long and somewhat curved
   low-level hodographs -- larger with northward extent -- may lead to
   0-1-km and effective SRH each in the 150-250 J/kg range, amidst
   effective-shear magnitudes ranging from 45-50 kt in southern parts
   of the outlook to 55-60 kt in the north. This will support some
   storm-scale rotation -- be it discrete to semi-discrete supercells
   or line-embedded mesovortices.  Overall severe potential should wane
   this evening as already weak low-level instability diminishes
   further.

 

[wdrag]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=24&dim=1

 

click for water vapor

 

[wdrag]

MCD out since about 11A just w of the subforum. 

[wdrag]

Probably won't be around to keep up with anything w of NYC prior to 430P.  Still seems like best chance for strong damaging storms and maybe a TOR is POU north... in other words, north of I84.  However, the reality check is coming soon and so follow all NWS products. Thanks, Walt

[IrishRob17]

21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

MCD out since about 11A just w of the subforum. 

One to the north now. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1871.html
 

[IrishRob17]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0529.html

[IrishRob17]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1872.html

[IrishRob17]

The radars look worse than the reality up this way

[wdrag]

Well I had my doubts and so maybe a small area will get some severe, but this does not look like much to me. In fact maybe someone will see small ice pellets tomorrow afternoon in the hilly burbs. My max gust  in this part of Wantage NJ was about 27MPH.  Was high based convection, 

[JerseyWx]

Pretty solid downpours here.

[qg_omega]

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Well I had my doubts and so maybe a small area will get some severe, but this does not look like much to me. In fact maybe someone will see small ice pellets tomorrow afternoon in the hilly burbs. My max gust  in this part of Wantage NJ was about 27MPH.  Was high based convection, 

Warnings all around 

[gravitylover]

Much ado about nothing...

A little wind, no thunder, .5" in less than 10 minutes and it was over. 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The radars look worse than the reality up this way

Yeah here in Albany it wasn’t as much of an event as I was expecting

[bluewave]

 

 

[Poker2015]

We were on the baseball field when the storm hit. Got very windy and a few gusts sent all kinds of debris from a construction site across the street onto the field. We got hit with big pieces of insulation, boxes, and anything not tied down. Flipped over the metal benches too.

Besides that, not much of anything.

[hudsonvalley21]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

That’s about a mile from my house. Unfortunately I was in the town of Goshen when it came thru. I drove in that area about an hour ago on the way home and seen some small branches down in that area. 
 

edit: channel 4 news had the video on and they were reporting live from there at 11pm saying it was a gustnado 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday.

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

That’s about a mile from my house. Unfortunately I was in the town of Goshen when it came thru. I drove in that area about an hour ago on the way home and seen some small branches down in that area. 
 

edit: channel 4 news had the video on and they were reporting live from there at 11pm saying it was a gustnado 

I used to work in that plaza many years ago, after I saw the video posted here I went I Central Hudson’s Outage Map and there were only 2 small outages around Vails Gate, nothing out of the ordinary.  

[hudsonvalley21]

On 10/17/2021 at 8:47 AM, IrishRob17 said:

I used to work in that plaza many years ago, after I saw the video posted here I went I Central Hudson’s Outage Map and there were only 2 small outages around Vails Gate, nothing out of the ordinary.  

It was a small area of a few limbs down basically west to east  from behind the price chopper plaza behind the vails gate firehouse to Provost Drive.