NorthArlington101 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still room for this to trend better! And a lot more room to trend worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better! I love the look of lower Pennsylvania. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 ....and this is why we just put a contract on a place in Canaan. Tired of no snow in NOVA and want to get the tracking season off early! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 My prediction for each airport on digital snow (largest GFS/Euro avg per storm) IAD 215” DCA 168” BWI 187” RIC 4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: I love the look of lower Pennsylvania. Thought you might 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My prediction for each airport on digital snow (largest GFS/Euro avg per storm) IAD 215” DCA 168” BWI 187” RIC 4” Why so mean to RIC? Thanks... I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My prediction for each airport on digital snow (largest GFS/Euro avg per storm) IAD 215” DCA 168” BWI 187” RIC 4” Someone should actually tally this, I've been meaning to do it for years. Take like a next 72 hours snowfall total, every 72 hours, and tally it up all winter long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 16 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Why so mean to RIC? Thanks... I guess... Sorry. I meant to say 400” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VelociChicken Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 12:39 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: My prediction for each airport on digital snow (largest GFS/Euro avg per storm) IAD 215” DCA 168” BWI 187” RIC 4” What about Short Pump? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 2 hours ago, VelociChicken said: What about Short Pump? Fringed 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Even though that would be a little bit useful for them, I don’t see Snowshoe opening by their target date this year (Nov. 24). Looks too warm. Unless they can really get snowmaking going, I’ll doubt it. Who knows though, hard to tell what the temperatures are like up there sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 58 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Even though that would be a little bit useful for them, I don’t see Snowshoe opening by their target date this year (Nov. 24). Looks too warm. Unless they can really get snowmaking going, I’ll doubt it. Who knows though, hard to tell what the temperatures are like up there sometimes. Nov 24 is an eternity away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 And to add on to that .. May and November are the real months of change. In May you can start the month and it actually feel like winter. It’s not a stretch to have daytime temps in the 40’s or 50’s to start the month and no problem at all to have temps in the 90’s pushing 100 at the end. Same for November. You can start as summer and be frozen by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Digital snow getting close to Gainesville on November 6, according to the 0z gfs run. It is beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 CAD is always undermodeled at range, though I'd take this thump for sure. Just needs to hold for a few dozen more runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Noticing you guys are just ignoring the 06z run. Off hour and all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Noticing you guys are just ignoring the 06z run. Off hour and all?Yeah, it had the idea right. Just weak and not quite as organized. We’ll probably get better sampling as the wave exits the Japanese coastline in a few days. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 we are south of the 540 so I can't get too excited yet...12z runs will be the most important runs since 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, it had the idea right. Just weak and not quite as organized. We’ll probably get better sampling as the wave exits the Japanese coastline in a few days. Had more cold air in place too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 The latest GFS run for 18z had colder temps but the low got depressed off the coast. The end had a strong cold front and then a Hurricane moving north and possibly getting wrapped up in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 18z GFS with a weenie run that still mostly screws us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 18z GFS with a weenie run that still mostly screws usDon’t call it a threat window. But… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Yay our first actual snow storm on the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 23 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: The latest GFS run for 18z had colder temps but the low got depressed off the coast. The end had a strong cold front and then a Hurricane moving north and possibly getting wrapped up in it. Looks all baroclinic to me. Just a gorgeous fall nor’easter/cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks all baroclinic to me. Just a gorgeous fall nor’easter/cutoff. A good sign moving forward despite knowing we are battling a Nina in a warmer background state. Coastal action is welcome sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 On 10/22/2021 at 8:04 PM, SnowenOutThere said: The latest GFS run for 18z had colder temps but the low got depressed off the coast. The end had a strong cold front and then a Hurricane moving north and possibly getting wrapped up in it. 12 hours ago, frd said: A good sign moving forward despite knowing we are battling a Nina in a warmer background state. Coastal action is welcome sign. I was surprised to see this morning on the phase chart that this low might actually be warm core at some point. NHC giving 20% odds of development now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was surprised to see this morning on the phase chart that this low might actually be warm core at some point. NHC giving 20% odds of development now lol. It would appear this will take on a hybrid structure and deepen rapidly along the offshore baroclinic zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Lock in the 6z GFS run. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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