OhioWX Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: A lot to erode in that sounding. Particularly, -170 J/kg of MLCIN is pretty prohibitive. This is quite a bit higher that CAM progs at the same time. I suspect we might have trouble getting CI anywhere away from the front/triple point. Wouldn't cold air aloft be enough to erode the cap over time, especially near the triple point? I'm concerned about the cap keeping significant convection from developing until later this evening/tonight when the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 May have initiation right now near Altus or Hollis, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: I doubt this will have much of an effect on things. The really shallow high Td layer near the surface would "mix out" anyway as air parcels ascend through the boundary layer into updrafts. What really matters is the average PBL moisture. True, but I suspect it explains why the CINH hasn't eroded as quickly as the CAMs progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 That cell near Eldorado looks like it might be one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Looks like there might be some weak rotation on that cell over Altus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Looks like there might be some weak rotation on that cell over Altus. Definitely looks like this is the dominant cell right now, with a severe thunderstorm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1st supercell of the day in the process of developing now in SW Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Tennis ball hail in the severe warned cell now. Will likely go tor warned pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Tornado Warning for SW Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Tornado Warning OKC031-075-102330- /O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0023.211010T2239Z-211010T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 539 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma... Central Kiowa County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles east of Warren, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Mountain View, Roosevelt, Cooperton, Tom Steed Reservoir and northwestern Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3511 9875 3478 9869 3470 9914 3470 9915 3476 9916 3476 9915 3477 9916 3479 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 236DEG 28KT 3476 9912 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN $$ ..speg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 75 dbz reflectivity in the core of that tor-warned cell in OK. Don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Nice structure on Mark Hills and Brandon Clements streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Nice structure on Mark Hills and Brandon Clements streams Tom Pastrano is getting a good view as well . . . And Val Castor is starting is get a really good view as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 TORNADO ON THE GROUND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Tornado watch coming for SE OK until 2am. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Surprised they issued a Tornado Watch as quickly as they did and for such a large area in North Texas It's in effect until 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Surprised they issued a Tornado Watch as quickly as they did and for such a large area in North Texas It's in effect until 2am.The dryline is quickly unzipping south, that's why. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 New tornado warning covers an awful lot of real estate. Storm speed increasing with each warning statement. Edit: Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive. Edit #2: Gone on next scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Even if the OKC metro doesn't get a tornado with this thing, it's got massive hail. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 50/30 tornado probs on the new watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 tornado that was reported at Cooperton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Confirmed tornado near Anadarko. Ramping up again. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 new tornado warning extends about 35 miles east to west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 TOG near Verden. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 Severe-warned storm coming out of the Breckenridge area needs to be watched for the DFW Metroplex within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Quote ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL GRADY AND EAST CENTRAL CADDO COUNTIES... At 704 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Verden, moving east-northeast at 35 mph. People near Verden and near and north of Chickasha should take shelter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 New Norman sounding has a MUCH weaker Cap & Stronger Thermodynamics for Supercell development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Couplet hasn't looked super tight yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Tornado or not, 70-80 mph winds up and down this line. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 Damaging 70-80 mph winds coming into the Mustang/Yukon area per News 9 live stream. There is a kink in the line there too, although the News 9 live stream does say it is slightly behind the cool front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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