CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 This might be the most impressive tornado signature I've seen on Frederick radar since Elmer-Tipton 2015 (I wasn't really paying attention during Mangum 2019 since I was too busy trying not to rear-end the chaser in front of me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Looks like a tornado near Clinton, OK (currently) as well as near Sharon Springs, KS (earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I'm not sure but I think this storm might have some rotation in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I'm not sure but I think this storm might have some rotation in it.Right lol? Appears as though it’s gaining forward speed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Crazy RFD winds on Tom Pastrano's stream on KWTV. He was way too close to the path for in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 That snyder storm has bonkers rotation. Absolutely some of the best I've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CryHavoc said: That snyder storm has bonkers rotation. Absolutely some of the best I've seen all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: That snyder storm has bonkers rotation. Absolutely some of the best I've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 One interesting thing is; it seems that one concern going into this event based off some of the forecast discussions was that storm motion was expected to be quite fast (50 MPH or more). However, these supercells have only been moving 20-25 MPH according to the warning statements. Obviously a good thing from a public/chaser safety standpoint especially with it being after dark, but I'm curious as to the cause of the discrepancy. Usually in my experience, when forecast storm speeds bust, they bust low (storms move faster than anticipated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Another thing of note, the supercells of the day have been moving on the southeastern reaches of the Enhanced risk zone (southern/Frederick-Snyder one is now actually within the Slight). The western band of storms has only just started to push into the Moderate/15% hatch zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Possible LEWP-embedded tornado coming up US 56 toward Copeland, Montezuma, Ensign, and possibly Dodge City, KS. This event striking or at least threatening all the towns I hit on my complete bust of a two-day chase trip this past May (I sat in Clinton, OK for a few hours the afternoon of the 27th, then eventually made my way to Watonga). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 confirmed tornado near Copeland KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Cell in NW Oklahoma is definitely on the cool side of the warm front and will probably dissipate. The cell west of Chickasha appears to be near or just NE of the warm front and will likely weaken over time, keeping OKC out of the main threat. It may pose an isolated tornado threat for another hour or two The focus shifts west to the MDT risk zone where supercell structures are embedded within a squall line. The best moisture is south of the KS/OK border, but strong low-level shear may support some continued tornado risk in southwestern Kansas, despite a stable near-surface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 TDS about 7 mi from Dodge City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Basically a Cat 1 hurricane in West Kansas right now. Some serious wind up and down that whole line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Basically a Cat 1 hurricane in West Kansas right now. Some serious wind up and down that whole line Pretty impressive low level wind profiles. LLJ in the 50-60kt range at 850mb with 0-1km SRH of 400-600 m2/s2. The line is even breaking into semi discrete storms in the eastern Texas panhandle, although deep shear vectors become increasingly parallel to the cold front with southward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Still getting tornado warnings in OK near daybreak. Impressive system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: Still getting tornado warnings in OK near daybreak. Impressive system Good morning OKC indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1231 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...southwest into west-central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131631Z - 132231Z Summary...Onset of a long-duration flash flood threat is underway across the discussion area. Discussion...Latest observations and objective analyses indicate a nearly surface boundary extending from near 6R6 (near the Big Bend region of Texas) east-northeastward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro area. Along and southeast of the front, abundantly moist and unstable air was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms near the front that were increasing in coverage and intensity this morning. Flow aloft was southwesterly - generally parallel to the front - which was already allowing for some training especially near the convective band about 70 WSW of SJT. Areas of 1"/hr rates were already noted, which is not particularly surprising given 1.5-1.9 inch PW values along and ahead of the front. Over the next 6 hours (and potentially beyond), models depict a gradual expansion of convective coverage primarily due to weak confluence/convergence along and ahead of the front. The approach of moisture/lift associated with Tropical Cyclone Pam along the western coast of Mexico will also contribute to expanded convective coverage over time as well. FFG thresholds are generally in the 2-3"/hr range across most of the discussion area (slightly lower near the Austin/San Antonio corridor), suggesting that the greatest flash flood threat will be tied to areas that can experience training and/or persistence of heavy rainfall in the near term. Cook ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32689805 32479765 31719781 30789875 29679955 29130038 29300089 29560173 29570234 29690269 30450231 31190151 32489919 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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