Some Thoughts on the Winter 2021-22 Outlook

[OHweather]

It’s still a little early on in the game, but we’re getting to the point where we can start narrowing down what various “pattern drivers” may look like this winter and examine analogs and even some seasonal forecast guidance for clues. 

For those who just want the maps, here are my current thoughts on temperature and precip through the winter. I’m lumping March into winter because it’s a month that can still prove to be productive for snow for many areas, and because many analogs are chilly in March. The detailed write-up with reasoning, analogs, and a look at longer range seasonal models is at the linked blog post (I'm exhausted from uploading the images on there, so I'm only going to upload a part of the post here). I hope to follow up with more focused thoughts in November, time permitting…

 

My guesses on teleconnections:

AO: Solidly negative.

NAO: Near neutral or slightly negative overall, possibly large swings

EPO: Near neutral or slightly negative overall.

PNA: Negative, especially later in winter

A stronger or more central-Pacific La Nina could pose warmer risks, especially in the central and eastern U.S., as would a strong stratospheric PV early in the winter that’s coupled to the troposphere. A quick increase in sunspots could also be a warmer risk. If forcing ends up more focused farther west into the Indian Ocean it’d likely point to a warmer winter.

The La Nina staying weak to moderate and more basin-wide would point to a chillier outcome with more blocking being more likely. A weaker stratospheric polar vortex early in the winter, and tropospheric blocking developing in November, would also point towards a chillier / blockier outcome. Scandinavian or Ural ridging in October or November would also point towards a chillier and blockier direction, as would sufficient tropical forcing occurring east into the Pacific at times.

I expect a very up and down winter, with very cold air frequently available over Canada that occasionally works south into much of the central and eastern CONUS this winter, along with the Northwest. The Southwest will generally be milder with a somewhat weak sub-tropical jet. The southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic will probably lean mild due to sharp warm-ups when blocking relaxes and / or the PNA shifts negative, though a couple of periods of EPO-induced cold all the way to the coast are possible. The most persistent cold will be in the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. The analogs really like the first part of winter (December into January, possibly starting to turn colder in November) for blocking and cold into the central and eastern US (with cold focused more on the northwest in February). The analogs have a -EPO, -NAO, and -PNA pattern in March.

I’m optimistic about snow in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, along with from the Great Lakes and Ohio / Tennessee Valleys into much of the Northeast and New England. Along I-95 from Baltimore to DC and Richmond, events will be rainy at times when blocking relaxes so snow will struggle to reach or exceed normal, though there should be opportunities for wintry weather when blocking is strong enough to suppress the Southeast Ridge.

I do want to post some maps based on the analogs I'm currently rolling with...

 

And FWIW, the analog pattern for October is pretty close to what's modeled this year:

Anyways, the rest of the write-up and a closer examination of the analogs is here:

https://jimsullivanweather.com/2021/10/04/an-exploration-of-cool-enso-winters-and-a-look-at-winter-2021-22/

 

[madwx]

Interesting read.   I know you're planning on more detailed monthly thoughts next month but what are your initial expectations?   Do you think we will have a more front loaded winter in terms of cold/snow in the GL/OV?

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, madwx said:

Interesting read.   I know you're planning on more detailed monthly thoughts next month but what are your initial expectations?   Do you think we will have a more front loaded winter in terms of cold/snow in the GL/OV?

My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. 

I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early. 

[raindancewx]

I get the same thing as you for the NAO going negative in December. But I also think it might go negative in late-February and March for a time.

The Southwest had a much wetter and colder Summer than last year, which does conceptually fit with a warm winter out here in a cold ENSO year (see 2005, 2013, 2017, etc). Nonetheless: I have to tell you, when I objectively match and rank precipitation totals and highs for each month from January to September, there is a strong signal for another huge cold wave in February in the Southwest if you filter on closest weather in La Nina years. When i ran the blend of the best matching La Ninas year to date, I got ~8 days 10F or colder in February, with ~2 days 20F or colder in February for my location, and that's including some of the "warmer" Februaries looks. I think 2-3 of the six closest La Nina years had temperatures 30-40 below average on a couple days.

Other things sort of support it too. A lot of times February gets stupid cold in the Plains following a +AO, +WPO, +NAO look in November (1978, 1979, 1992, 1993, 2020 as examples). June cold snaps in the Southwest (I used highs under 70F in Albuquerque from 6/15-7/15) also tend to support cold in mid-Nov to mid-Dec or mid Feb to mid-March. 

Also, the mid-Dec to mid-Jan period is highly sensitive to the total Atlantic ACE Index here. Roughly ~20 points of ACE adds (removes) 1F off the high for that period. I am not convinced at all we hit 180 ACE again this year. That said, the major hurricane days are very highly correlated to dryness out here (more than ACE), so I'm actually introducing a -40% precipitation spot in the Southwest for the winter, with 13.75 major hurricane days already (8.75 for all of last year, despite 180 ACE).

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I get the same thing as you for the NAO going negative in December. But I also think it might go negative in late-February and March for a time.

The Southwest had a much wetter and colder Summer than last year, which does conceptually fit with a warm winter out here in a cold ENSO year (see 2005, 2013, 2017, etc). Nonetheless: I have to tell you, when I objectively match and rank precipitation totals and highs for each month from January to September, there is a strong signal for another huge cold wave in February in the Southwest if you filter on closest weather in La Nina years. When i ran the blend of the best matching La Ninas year to date, I got ~8 days 10F or colder in February, with ~2 days 20F or colder in February for my location, and that's including some of the "warmer" Februaries looks. I think 2-3 of the six closest La Nina years had temperatures 30-40 below average on a couple days.

Other things sort of support it too. A lot of times February gets stupid cold in the Plains following a +AO, +WPO, +NAO look in November (1978, 1979, 1992, 1993, 2020 as examples). June cold snaps in the Southwest (I used highs under 70F in Albuquerque from 6/15-7/15) also tend to support cold in mid-Nov to mid-Dec or mid Feb to mid-March. 

Also, the mid-Dec to mid-Jan period is highly sensitive to the total Atlantic ACE Index here. Roughly ~20 points of ACE adds (removes) 1F off the high for that period. I am not convinced at all we hit 180 ACE again this year. That said, the major hurricane days are very highly correlated to dryness out here (more than ACE), so I'm actually introducing a -40% precipitation spot in the Southwest for the winter, with 13.75 major hurricane days already (8.75 for all of last year, despite 180 ACE).

Thank you for your insight as always. A fair number of my analogs have a -NAO returning in March too...here's the mean 500mb pattern in my current analogs:

I can see how the Plains or even Southwest get one or two big cold snaps this winter...the PNA will be negative at times (perhaps averaging negative for the winter) so if the EPO and AO stay positive some cold can get into the west. 

[raindancewx]

I have a pretty wild March. This is not the blend I'm using in each month, but I do think this will work in March.

Also, this winter to me screams fluky snow events in the South. It won't be the same as last year, but each of the years I'm using has one to two meaningful snow events almost down to the Gulf Coast even though I have the South pretty warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

Thank you for your insight as always. A fair number of my analogs have a -NAO returning in March too...here's the mean 500mb pattern in my current analogs:

I can see how the Plains or even Southwest get one or two big cold snaps this winter...the PNA will be negative at times (perhaps averaging negative for the winter) so if the EPO and AO stay positive some cold can get into the west. 

Jim, like I said on Twitter...your work is very similar to mine, right down to the cited source...uncanny.

Same page, bud.

[uncle W]

here in NYC the winters that started cold then got mild in Feb but March returned to wintery weather...all la nina or weak negative years...

1955-56...

1959-60...

1970-71...

1975-76...

1980-81...

1983-84...

2000-01...

2017-18...

[Kingfil]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

here in NYC the winters that started cold then got mild in Feb but March returned to wintery weather...all la nina or weak negative years...

1955-56...

1959-60...

1970-71...

1975-76...

1980-81...

1993-84...

2000-01...

2017-18...

93-94, or 83-84?. 93-94 was the closest thing to wall to wall right?

[OHweather]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jim, like I said on Twitter...your work is very similar to mine, right down to the cited source...uncanny.

Same page, bud.

I remember you being all over the better blocking potential last year, so that's good to hear! The more seasonal outlooks one does, the more you realize that location of the ENSO (along with things such as QBO) are much more important than just "El Nino" or "La Nina", and the cited paper is definitely a great resource in La Nina winters. "Modoki" La Ninas aren't discussed quite as much as Modoki El Ninos but it arguably has as large of an impact, especially with non-weak events. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I remember you being all over the better blocking potential last year, so that's good to hear! The more seasonal outlooks one does, the more you realize that location of the ENSO (along with things such as QBO) are much more important than just "El Nino" or "La Nina", and the cited paper is definitely a great resource in La Nina winters. "Modoki" La Ninas aren't discussed quite as much as Modoki El Ninos but it arguably has as large of an impact, especially with non-weak events. 

Agreed.

One thing we need to keep an eye on is that this has evolved into a def. modoki look right now....going to have to take another peek at that in about a month before I issue. Saving grace maybe that its so damn weak that it  may not eve really matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jim, any reason why you switched 2008 to a modoki designation when the article had it as hybrid? Just disagree with their designation?

[It's Always Sunny]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I remember you being all over the better blocking potential last year, so that's good to hear! The more seasonal outlooks one does, the more you realize that location of the ENSO (along with things such as QBO) are much more important than just "El Nino" or "La Nina", and the cited paper is definitely a great resource in La Nina winters. "Modoki" La Ninas aren't discussed quite as much as Modoki El Ninos but it arguably has as large of an impact, especially with non-weak events. 

Great write-up, Jim. I haven't analyzed Modoki La Ninas as much as you, Ray and raindance have (I've been looking more into the MJOs influence on us here in TX which generated some interesting findings), but if I am understanding your blog correctly, for us here in TX, a 2nd year, weak-moderate & mixed-east based La Nina could further support the idea of "cooler" temps, correct? 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed.

One thing we need to keep an eye on is that this has evolved into a def. modoki look right now....going to have to take another peek at that in about a month before I issue. Saving grace maybe that its so damn weak that it  may not eve really matter.

I consider it "hybrid" right now, so not a true central Pacific event but it's not EP based either. If it trends towards moderate and the coolest water is pretty far west over the next month or so that could result in me pulling things in a warmer direction (especially in the south and east), especially if the pattern is looking more like those warmer analogs. 

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jim, any reason why you switched 2008 to a modoki designation when the article had it as hybrid? Just disagree with their designation?

Honestly I just went through each year and gave a designation based off of my impression of it (though most of them are the same as the paper). My reasoning for calling 08-09 a central Pacific based event was because the center of the cooling was firmly focused west of 150W, which is what the paper lists as the rough guideline, and because the eastern Nino regions never got that cool. I think it's firmly more CP based than this year (so far), though as you've alluded to probably didn't kill ruin the winter because it was on the weaker side. Despite this I think it's a good analog (second year La Nina, similar intensity, similar QBO, low solar, similar tropical forcing in the fall to what I currently expect this year) and is a double weight for me right now. 

[OHweather]

19 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Great write-up, Jim. I haven't analyzed Modoki La Ninas as much as you, Ray and raindance have (I've been looking more into the MJOs influence on us here in TX which generated some interesting findings), but if I am understanding your blog correctly, for us here in TX, a 2nd year, weak-moderate & mixed-east based La Nina could further support the idea of "cooler" temps, correct? 

Yes, the gist of that graphic was to illustrate that in general, second year La Ninas are usually more hostile than first year La Ninas (with all second year events on the left), but non-strong second year La Ninas (especially those with the cooler waters focused farther east) mitigate that to some extent (on the right). It comes down to if there's enough blocking to get one or two big shots all the way to the Gulf Coast...a lot of things point to that at the moment, but if the La Nina gets stronger or becomes more firmly central Pacific based we're run the risk of things looking more like the map on the left there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I consider it "hybrid" right now, so not a true central Pacific event but it's not EP based either. If it trends towards moderate and the coolest water is pretty far west over the next month or so that could result in me pulling things in a warmer direction (especially in the south and east), especially if the pattern is looking more like those warmer analogs. 

Honestly I just went through each year and gave a designation based off of my impression of it (though most of them are the same as the paper). My reasoning for calling 08-09 a central Pacific based event was because the center of the cooling was firmly focused west of 150W, which is what the paper lists as the rough guideline, and because the eastern Nino regions never got that cool. I think it's firmly more CP based than this year (so far), though as you've alluded to probably didn't kill ruin the winter because it was on the weaker side. Despite this I think it's a good analog (second year La Nina, similar intensity, similar QBO, low solar, similar tropical forcing in the fall to what I currently expect this year) and is a double weight for me right now. 

I actually mean 2007-2008. I agree RE 2008-2009.

This year looks modoki at the moment, but lets see what happens moving forward.

[OHweather]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually mean 2007-2008. I agree RE 2008-2009.

This year looks modoki at the moment, but lets see what happens moving forward.

I can see why the paper has 07-08 as hybrid. The DJF anomalies were quite cold west of 150W, which is why I called it a CP event, but the cooling in the fall was more basin wide. I think that event may end up being a bit more west based than this one (and certainly a good bit stronger which probably makes a larger difference) but I can see the reasoning for calling 07-08 hybrid. 

I agree that we aren't looking at an east-based event, which is why I'm a bit warmer in the south / east than a lot of those composites and included some stronger and CP events in the analogs, as long as they were decent matches for fall tropical forcing, solar, and / or QBO this year. I do think we likely stay away from an uglier look like 11-12 or 16-17 which were truly central Pacific based with their cooling. 

[OHweather]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I have a pretty wild March. This is not the blend I'm using in each month, but I do think this will work in March.

Also, this winter to me screams fluky snow events in the South. It won't be the same as last year, but each of the years I'm using has one to two meaningful snow events almost down to the Gulf Coast even though I have the South pretty warm.

17-18 is a winter that comes to mind in terms of being mild overall across the south but still having a couple of snow events when it got cold. I can see it happening this winter that way too, though maybe not quite as noteworthy as what happened in early 2018 along the Gulf Coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

17-18 is a winter that comes to mind in terms of being mild overall across the south but still having a couple of snow events when it got cold. I can see it happening this winter that way too, though maybe not quite as noteworthy as what happened in early 2018 along the Gulf Coast. 

Its high on my list...along with 2008-2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

I consider it "hybrid" right now, so not a true central Pacific event but it's not EP based either. If it trends towards moderate and the coolest water is pretty far west over the next month or so that could result in me pulling things in a warmer direction (especially in the south and east), especially if the pattern is looking more like those warmer analogs. 

Honestly I just went through each year and gave a designation based off of my impression of it (though most of them are the same as the paper). My reasoning for calling 08-09 a central Pacific based event was because the center of the cooling was firmly focused west of 150W, which is what the paper lists as the rough guideline, and because the eastern Nino regions never got that cool. I think it's firmly more CP based than this year (so far), though as you've alluded to probably didn't kill ruin the winter because it was on the weaker side. Despite this I think it's a good analog (second year La Nina, similar intensity, similar QBO, low solar, similar tropical forcing in the fall to what I currently expect this year) and is a double weight for me right now. 

The QBO is actually the one glaring flaw with 2008-2009 as an analog..it was positive. But obviously QBO is only one factor, so its a decent analog overall.

[uncle W]

last year had plenty of blocking until the second half of February climaxed by two days with the AO below -5sd...not many years had an ao below 5sd...

these are the years with at least one day having a -5sd...since 1950...seven el ninos...three la nina...three weak negatives...

1959-60.....11/18...11/19...

1962-63.....01/21...

1965-66.....01/28...

1968-69.....02/13...02/15...

1969-70.....03/04...03/05...03/06...03/07...03/08...03/09...03/10...

1976-77.....12/28...12/29...01/11...01/12...01/13...01/14...01/15...01/16...01/17

1977-78.....02/05...02/06...

1984-85.....01/18...01/19...01/20...

2002-03.....10/18...

2009-10.....12/20...12/21...12/22...12/23...12/24...12/25...01/03...01/04...01/05...01/06...02/06...02/14...

2010-11.....12/18...

2012-13.....03/19...03/20...03/21...03/22...

2020-21.....02/10...02/11...

...............................................................................................................

dates..................-AO

1...01/15/1977.....-7.433...

2...01/16/1977.....-7.331...

3...01/14/1977.....-7.311...

4...01/13/1977.....-6.520...

5...03/05/1970.....-6.365...

6...01/19/1985.....-6.226...

7...01/17/1977.....-6.168...

8...03/06/1970.....-6.114...

9...03/04/1970.....-5.918...

10 11/18/1959.....-5.896...

 

11 12/21/2009.....-5.821...

12 01/12/1977.....-5.802...

13 01/18/1985.....-5.693...

14 03/20/2013.....-5.688...

15 01/20/1985.....-5.581...

16 12/23/2009.....-5.577...

17 11/19/1959.....-5.545...

18 01/03/2010.....-5.533...

19 03/07/1970.....-5.525...

20 03/09/1970.....-5.519...

 

21 12/22/2009.....-5.508...

22 01/04/2010.....-5.403...

23 03/21/2013.....-5.399...

24 01/02/2010.....-5.384...

25 12/20/2009.....-5.341...

26 01/11/1977.....-5.333...

27 03/08/1970.....-5.320...

28 02/05/1978.....-5.291...

29 12/29/1976.....-5.287...

30 02/10/2021.....-5.285...

 

31 02/13/1969.....-5.282...

32 12/18/2010.....-5.265...

33 12/24/2009.....-5.256...

34 02/11/2021.....-5.254...

35 03/22/2013.....-5.240...

36 12/28/1976.....-5.206...

37 02/06/2010.....-5.205...

38 03/19/2013.....-5.193...

39 01/05/2010.....-5.180...

40 02/14/2010.....-5.132...

 

41 01/28/1966.....-5.130...

42 03/10/1970.....-5.115...

43 02/15/1969.....-5.102...

44 10/18/2002.....-5.098...

45 12/25/2009.....-5.052...

46 02/06/1978.....-5.026...

47 01/21/1963.....-5.010... 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The QBO is actually the one glaring flaw with 2008-2009 as an analog..it was positive. But obviously QBO is only one factor, so its a decent analog overall.

I agree it's an issue, but there are some QBO similarities that I liked. It was positive at 30mb through the winter, but easterlies were beginning to descend through the stratosphere during the winter with westerlies persisting through the lower stratosphere. This year is certainly farther along in the process and I think that will be conducive to keeping the vortex weaker (especially early in the winter), which may help the AO and NAO compared to 08-09. But when I was looking for QBO analogs (and comparing to "opposite years"), I looked for years with descending easterlies in which westerlies hung on in the lower stratosphere into at least early winter (whereas for opposite years, I looked for winters with descending westerlies with established easterlies in the lower stratosphere). 08-09 is not a perfect match but is in that part of the cycle, albeit earlier on.

[uncle W]

9 hours ago, Kingfil said:

93-94, or 83-84?. 93-94 was the closest thing to wall to wall right?

sorry...1983-84...even 93-94 had a warm week in February...

[raindancewx]

These are the Februaries I mentioned that match closest to Jan-Sept 2021 highs & precipitation locally, in La Nina years:

My analog blend for February isn't that cold. But it's actually not that different of a look.

[raindancewx]

As far as determining the ENSO type, the easiest way is just to use an imprecise filter and then find the deeper colors.

Look at how last year changed for instance:

I still haven't found a better match on a month to month basis at the surface to 2021 than a blend of 1967, 2001, 2011. That blend is 25.95C in Nino 3.4 in winter, but closer to 28.0C in Nino 4, and then around 25.0C in Nino 3 for winter. Each month has been pretty close in each zone.

If anything the blend is too cold in Nino 3 since it was warmer in September, with Nino 1.2 running warmer consistently. I have a table in my winter outlook - I'll show how close that blend is in a few days.

[George001]

37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

These are the Februaries I mentioned that match closest to Jan-Sept 2021 highs & precipitation locally, in La Nina years:

My analog blend for February isn't that cold. But it's actually not that different of a look.

Average temps in Feb? After the last few years I would gladly take that and run. Hell even slightly above average like +1 isn’t that bad. Average to slightly above avg temp but with a stormy pattern can still mean a very snowy month in New England.

[raindancewx]

 

[OHweather]

^ For those wondering, when I saw how awful my hair looked like in that video yesterday I went and got it cut after work. Important point of clarification 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

These are the Februaries I mentioned that match closest to Jan-Sept 2021 highs & precipitation locally, in La Nina years:

My analog blend for February isn't that cold. But it's actually not that different of a look.

I can see that look playing out at some point mid-late winter if the ridging over the N Pacific is amped enough. The PNA should average negative so if / when the NAO goes positive we can get that look where it's cold west with a SE ridge in the east. As you alluded to we may not get a month that's quite that cold in the west but a couple of decent shots are certainly possible if not somewhat likely. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

As far as determining the ENSO type, the easiest way is just to use an imprecise filter and then find the deeper colors.

Look at how last year changed for instance:

I still haven't found a better match on a month to month basis at the surface to 2021 than a blend of 1967, 2001, 2011. That blend is 25.95C in Nino 3.4 in winter, but closer to 28.0C in Nino 4, and then around 25.0C in Nino 3 for winter. Each month has been pretty close in each zone.

If anything the blend is too cold in Nino 3 since it was warmer in September, with Nino 1.2 running warmer consistently. I have a table in my winter outlook - I'll show how close that blend is in a few days.

I do hope that we don't go the way of what the mean of those winters looks like over the eastern CONUS, although outside of CA it's not as horrifically dry in the west which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. 2011-12 scares me a little because it's quite a good ENSO match on the upswing portion of the solar cycle and a similar QBO to this winter. That year did not have as warm of a West Pac warm pool and had more convection occurred farther west over the Indian Ocean, which I don't *think* this year will do, but for eastern US snow lovers that's the kind of year that's a decent enough analog to scare you. 01-02 is off in enough other areas that it doesn't worry me, though it also was a ++AO winter. 67-68 was an interesting, blocky winter with a similar QBO to this year and I considered including it in my overall set of analogs...I ultimately decided against because it was farther back in time with a poor match in Indian Ocean / western Pacific SSTs and had more tropical forcing near the Dateline, which I don't think is likely this year. 

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

I agree it's an issue, but there are some QBO similarities that I liked. It was positive at 30mb through the winter, but easterlies were beginning to descend through the stratosphere during the winter with westerlies persisting through the lower stratosphere. This year is certainly farther along in the process and I think that will be conducive to keeping the vortex weaker (especially early in the winter), which may help the AO and NAO compared to 08-09. But when I was looking for QBO analogs (and comparing to "opposite years"), I looked for years with descending easterlies in which westerlies hung on in the lower stratosphere into at least early winter (whereas for opposite years, I looked for winters with descending westerlies with established easterlies in the lower stratosphere). 08-09 is not a perfect match but is in that part of the cycle, albeit earlier on.

Now that I'm home and glancing through the actual write-up and some of the composites I did while working on it, I didn't include 08-09 in the "better" QBO match sets I used because it was too positive at 30mb through the winter (which I think is the correct move, I was worried that I included it in those sets which would've been a little iffy). However, the point about the downwelling easterlies above lingering westerlies does still hold IMO...the research about North Pac ridging in La Ninas based on QBO that those such as Anthony Masiello and Griteater have done over the last decade revolves around that lower-strat QBO, so this winter and 08-09 would both fall into the positive lower-strat QBO La Nina camp that has more amped north Pacific ridging.