“Let’s Talk Winter”

[JayPSU]

This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer type of storm.  Seems to me, every time we have energy transfers, they ALWAYS take longer to transfer than modelled.  We have been screwed with changeovers many times due to the delay in transferring.

[Gino27]

Wow

[snowlover2]

[pondo1000]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

LOL! The Euro cannot be discounted so it’ll be interesting to see it’s 12z run. 

[snowlover2]

12z Ukie took a nice jump NW. Has snowfall east of I-71 where the 0z was in VA/Carolinas.

[buckeye]

Keeping my powder dry on this one.

You can seriously come up with good sound reasoning as to how we could get whiffed or how we could get dumped on, or how we could end up sweating precip type.

For the latter there are a couple of gefs members that bring the low to Cincy.  For the argument of a whiff, less phasing, flatter western ridge, more confluence to the northeast could all lead to the bowling ball not gaining latitude and ending up on the Carolina coast.

Kind of online with what Jay mentioned, there is also going to be an ugly dry slot somewhere although that and the worry of a quicker transfer could all be grouped with the  too far nw concern.

I have no idea or feeling about this one.  It's still pretty far out there relatively speaking.   The thing to watch is the 500 maps, and see what the trend is on everything.  

So here's my official first guess:

33% chance of a smoking-cirrus whiff

33% chance of slop or change over

33% chance we have our first big dog in years

1% chance the Steelers beat the Chiefs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pondo1000]

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Keeping my powder dry on this one.

You can seriously come up with good sound reasoning as to how we could get whiffed or how we could get dumped on, or how we could end up sweating precip type.

For the latter there are a couple of gefs members that bring the low to Cincy.  For the argument of a whiff, less phasing, flatter western ridge, more confluence to the northeast could all lead to the bowling ball not gaining latitude and ending up on the Carolina coast.

Kind of online with what Jay mentioned, there is also going to be an ugly dry slot somewhere although that and the worry of a quicker transfer could all be grouped with the  too far nw concern.

I have no idea or feeling about this one.  It's still pretty far out there relatively speaking.   The thing to watch is the 500 maps, and see what the trend is on everything.  

So here's my official first guess:

33% chance of a smoking-cirrus whiff

33% chance of slop or change over

33% chance we have our first big dog in years

1% chance the Steelers beat the Chiefs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll take those odds at this point. LOL

[snowlover2]

12z GGEM finally loading and it looks very similar to the GFS.

[Gino27]

38 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GGEM finally loading and it looks very similar to the GFS.

Euro took a huge step towards GFS/CMC camp. I wonder what the western limit of this trend could be. 100 hours is an eternity with something this complex.

[jbcmh81]

4 hours ago, JayPSU said:

This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer type of storm.  Seems to me, every time we have energy transfers, they ALWAYS take longer to transfer than modelled.  We have been screwed with changeovers many times due to the delay in transferring.

I actually don't think these are a big screw job traditionally.  January 1996 comes to mind.  As long as the cold is in place and the first low doesn't move too far north or get too strong initially, these are normally good snow makers, I think.  A lot of IFs, though, which is why such situations are generally rare regardless.

When's the last time Ohio even saw a true Miller B situation?

[buckeye]

This can only go so far west but I would imagine the western extent of possibility would still have precip issues for us here.   

12zeuro showed how this comes west.   It has started to phase the energy dropping in from the northern plains on the backside of the 500 low.  If that is a real 'trend' we definitely won't have to worry about being whiffed.

 

[NEOH]

Here's the top CIPS analog. Haven't looked at these in quite sometime but this was definitely good for Ohio - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F108&rundt=2022011212&dt=2012122618&HH=0&map=COSN24

[CoachLB]

Euro doesn’t give me jack…

[pondo1000]

49 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This can only go so far west but I would imagine the western extent of possibility would still have precip issues for us here.   

12zeuro showed how this comes west.   It has started to phase the energy dropping in from the northern plains on the backside of the 500 low.  If that is a real 'trend' we definitely won't have to worry about being whiffed.

 

Why do I have this sinking feeling that I’m going to wake up tomorrow morning and check on this & see that the 0z suite is giving us a rainer? Ahh, the joys of living in central Ohio. LOL

[snowlover2]

Quote

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep, but unphased, troughing will be positioned near the NE coast
of the CONUS for the start of the period with NW flow aloft over the
OH Vly transitioning to more quasi-zonal flow through the day on
Friday. The final day of the workweek will have the region squeezed
between the system exiting the eastern seaboard and the next one in
line, which will be progressing quickly from the Upper Midwest to
south-central plains Friday into Friday night.

By this time, attention will be squarely focused on the second of
the aforementioned systems -- the one tracking almost N-S through
the central plains on Friday. Longer-range guidance remains in
relatively good agreement showing this midlevel S/W transitioning to
a closed low by Saturday morning in the vicinity of KS/OK. This
feature will be responsible for a rather impressive band of wintry
pcpn on the NE periphery of the track, which will likely position
itself from MN to MO during this time period, with the ILN FA & OH
Vly staying pretty confidently to the east of any pcpn through the
daytime on Saturday. Cannot completely rule out a few flurries,
perhaps, near/south of the OH Rvr by later Saturday evening, but the
guidance trend in taking this feature further west has left us with
pretty high confidence in a dry Saturday here locally as highs
ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s (N-S, respectively) locally.

This is a complex winter system that will likely evolve from the
ArkLaTex region E/NE through the TN Vly and eventually into the NE
CONUS from Saturday night through Sunday. While it seemed like
previous data runs had all but written off any notable impacts
locally, the latest trends, both deterministically and from an
ensemble perspective, suggest this perhaps may not entirely be the
case. GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble means have all taken considerable jumps
further to the NW with the boomerang re-curvature of the system from
the northern Gulf to near/west of the spine of the Appalachians
before eventually the primary energy transfers closer to the coast,
with the inland low becoming somewhat orphaned by later Sunday.

There are several things to break down regarding potential
accumulating wintry pcpn locally late Saturday night through Sunday.
The first, and perhaps most important, aspect will be the timing of
the transfer of energy from the initial inland low to the coastal
low sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night. The prevailing
guidance would suggest occlusion of the initial sfc low in MS/TN
Saturday night with the development of a secondary low toward SC by
Sunday morning. The occlusion of the low would signal a gradual loss
of baroclinicity associated with the inland low, which guidance
suggests may track from TN NE through the ern OH Vly during the day
on Sunday. The occlusion of the LL system, prompting the loss of
baroclinicity, due in part of the lack of arctic air building in
quickly from the NW, suggests a gradual decrease in lift/LL
convergence associated with any banded pcpn. In fact, there would
likely be frontolysis underway with this system as it tracks closer
to the ILN FA Sunday, leading to uncertainties in just how
widespread and/or intense any wintry pcpn may be. There is no sharp
temp gradient or strong frontogenetic axis to work with here,
especially as the coastal low becomes the primary one on Sunday with
explosive cyclogenesis occurring in the mid-Atlantic region.

With all of this being said, it cannot be ignored the obvious and
sudden shift to the NW with the inland low tracking to the NE
near/west of the Appalachians -- a climatologically-favorable track
for accumulating snow in the OH Vly. Although there remains some
positional variability that will ultimately play a significant role
in the evolution of the system and potential impacts locally, this
trend has shown itself almost unanimously across the GEFS/GEPS/EPS
ensemble quites. Most guidance would suggest that the column may get
/just/ warm enough to promote a mix of rain/snow during the
afternoon in N KY and south-central OH, with the predominant p-type
remaining snow elsewhere with a subzero (C) profile and ample
saturation in the DGZ coinciding/overlapping with some vertical
motion with the mid/upper level low tracking through the region.
Ensemble mean probabilities continue to suggest increasing potential
for light accumulations of snowfall (1"/3") or less near/SE of the I-
71 corridor on Sunday. These ensemble means do assume a 10:1 SLR,
which would likely just a bit higher than we would be dealing with
(we may be closer to 8:1 or 9:1, depending on location).
Nevertheless, the trends with the overall closed low tracking
further to the N/W, with implications on the track of the inland
(filling) low, have raised PoPs above the blended guidance for
Saturday night through Sunday and will introduce a broad-brushed HWO
mention for now. Certainly we are still several model runs away from
being able to hone-in on whether this system will be more of a
nuisance, or perhaps a bit more significant, so we will continue to
adjust the forecast as trends and patterns dictate.

Another "kicker" S/W will pivot SE from the Upper Midwest to the OH
Vly immediately behind the "main" system for Sunday night into
Monday morning. This system may have enough additional lift to
generate some snow showers during the day on Monday as temps remain
several degrees below seasonal norms. Have not added slight chance
PoPs yet for this time period as confidence remains low at this time
in the exact track and strength of this feature. But some lake-
effect/enhanced snow showers N of the immediate local area seem like
a good bet at this juncture for the start of the workweek.

From ILN

[chuckster2012]

1 hour ago, CoachLB said:

Euro doesn’t give me jack…

Me either in southern Indiana but GFS sayd yes!

[Gino27]

1 hour ago, chuckster2012 said:

Me either in southern Indiana but GFS sayd yes!

Not the new run. It's windshield wiper time!

[CoachLB]

Funky wobble east before lifting on the 18z. 

[Gino27]

3 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Funky wobble east before lifting on the 18z. 

Even though there's really no blocking to keep this thing from going more west, I think a near miss to the east is most likely. I expected the GFS to start heading SE eventually.

[chuckster2012]

23 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Not the new run. It's windshield wiper time!

Not even close to rain

A dusting.

 

.

[Gino27]

Euro crushes US-23 corridor 

[chuckster2012]

16 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Euro crushes US-23 corridor 

What part? How far north? In Ohio?

[yoda]

33 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said:

What part? How far north? In Ohio?

[jaf316]

Gfs goes SE, Euro goes NW... Gonna be a long few days... 

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, jaf316 said:

Gfs goes SE, Euro goes NW... Gonna be a long few days... 

Big swing & and a miss on 12z NAM

[Steve]

After all this tracking and anticipation… I would not be surprised if we get whiffed once again!!

[dilly84]

14 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Big swing & and a miss on 12z NAM

Calling it now, miss sw. NW trend is done and the trend back SW begins. As I said a few days ago, ready for the torch already.

[dilly84]

1 hour ago, jaf316 said:

Gfs goes SE, Euro goes NW... Gonna be a long few days... 

The low on the GFS actually appears to be further west than yesterday, but the precip shield on the back isn't nearly as far north. 

[CoachLB]

[Gino27]

I’m definitely not a fan of recent trends. The ridge out west is much stronger and models are just starting to pick it up, which is forcing things east.