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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Warm tongue of death (WTOD): eastward moving warm air hits the west Appalachians and is forced northward.  Especially bad in the eastern 2/3s of OH.  Storm doesn't necessarily have to be a Cutter to do this...

It’s why every winter I yearn for a good clipper pattern. We haven’t had that type of pattern for years, but it really is the only way to get snow around here. Small amounts, yes typically, but I’d take a clipper every 3 days or so to lay down some snow. Plus, there’s always a chance one or two over perform which can be a nice surprise.  

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12 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

It’s why every winter I yearn for a good clipper pattern. We haven’t had that type of pattern for years, but it really is the only way to get snow around here. Small amounts, yes typically, but I’d take a clipper every 3 days or so to lay down some snow. Plus, there’s always a chance one or two over perform which can be a nice surprise.  

Latest ensembles do show some possible clipper opportunities in the next couple of weeks, so there's that.  Caveat, all can totally change in 6-8 hours, Lol.  However, there's been some persistence in the ensembles over the past day or two and the MJO looks, as of now, to stay in phase 7 and even 8 for the next two weeks.  Optimistic here.

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4 hours ago, Gino27 said:

image.png.abe7c226cffd0b63ec19b658921f31c8.png

Confluence is in the absolute worst possible spot and much stronger on the 18z GFS.

image.png.dbc6750c703152cf4033b9ac14cb01ee.png

The look that the NAM gave is pretty much our only hope.

Looking more like 1979-80 than 1984-85.  December 1979 was warm and snowless, with January/February much colder, but the largest snow event was 3".  Total snowfall for the season was 16.7" in Columbus.  This season is now a full inch behind that year, and more than 9" below last year. Unless there's a drastic change in the pattern or a very lucky break, this could end up being one of the least snowy December-Januarys ever.

Of all the historically snowless winters of the past 25 years, just about all of them had more snow at this point.

1996-1997, 1997-1998, 2001-2002, 2005-2006, 2016-2017, 2019-2020.  2011-2012 came in very close, just 0.2" behind.  So yeah, it's hard to see things turning around based on that. 

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20 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Bring on spring. Sick of this winter already. What's our total for the year? Gotta be under 2", right? You know it's bad when Tennessee is beating you faily handedly in snow totals and the ski resorts are having to shut down.

Cheer up -- the GFS shows a big snowstorm at 360 hours. I'm sure that will happen... 

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