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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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Just now, Gino27 said:

GFS keeps ticking slightly better on 500 vort, but looks the same if not worse overall.

I hate to say it but the gfs seems to make more sense to me.   That first storm in front of it moving through the upper lakes delivers the cold, but the spacing might not be enough to allow the follow up energy to amp much.... IOW, washed-out turd.     This may not even be a matter of the gfs and euro meeting halfway, probably one is going to score the coupe.   Gfs scored the coupe on the MA storm, so there's that too unfortunately.   

 

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I hate to say it but the gfs seems to make more sense to me.   That first storm in front of it moving through the upper lakes delivers the cold, but the spacing might not be enough to allow the follow up energy to amp much.... IOW, washed-out turd.     This may not even be a matter of the gfs and euro meeting halfway, probably one is going to score the coupe.   Gfs scored the coupe on the MA storm, so there's that too unfortunately.   

 

Every party has a pooper….

LOL!!!

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8 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Canadian looking a bit more suppressed this run... 

Yep, big red flag.   Really the only good run so far has been the nam +60 hrs.   Not encouraging.

GEM trended weaker and south, icon is nada, gfs is nada, ukmet was showing hope at 00z but it went back to crap at 12z.    If I were a betting man I'd have to put my chips on the euro starting to cave at 12z.  If not, then we can at least hug the ole EE rule.

Regardless,after that it's a rainstorm followed by a sharp cold front that is transient.   In this wavy pattern it's all about luck and timing.   DC has the hot ticket right now.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yep, big red flag.   Really the only good run so far has been the nam +60 hrs.   Not encouraging.

GEM trended weaker and south, icon is nada, gfs is nada, ukmet was showing hope at 00z but it went back to crap at 12z.    If I were a betting man I'd have to put my chips on the euro starting to cave at 12z.  If not, then we can at least hug the ole EE rule.

Regardless,after that it's a rainstorm followed by a sharp cold front that is transient.   In this wavy pattern it's all about luck and timing.   DC has the hot ticket right now.

For what it's worth, the storm that's pounding the Mid-Atlantic followed a pretty significant NW trend within 90 hours. But the setups just aren't comparable. Within the last 24 hours the GEM and UKMET have gone back and forth a lot and the Euro has been most consistent, so we at least have that.

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Slowly losing the euro as this thing sinks south.    Now watch the GFS come back tonight with a block buster storm for us :lol:

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I would say there's still room for an inevitable NW shift...but that never seems to benefit us, only those to our north and west.  

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4 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

I would say there's still room for an inevitable NW shift...but that never seems to benefit us, only those to our north and west.  

On the bright side, sometimes when models are dealing with two waves close to one another, surprises can happen quickly with the second one.    There's my happy weenie injection for the day :)

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