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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

this is the latest hrrr, it's the 18hr panel, (5am), that's 16 hrs from now.     None of us know for sure what the sleet to snow ratio is going to end up.   Feb sleet storm was always on the table but so is a nice snow storm.    More likely a combination that would make us happy to have any other time.     Relax and enjoy the tracking, otherwise why the hell are we here.     

 

xhrrr.jpg.e4892447da76ed51df178270da93ec36.jpg

 

It's been so long since we've had a real winter storm to track that I forgot about this phase of the weather tracking experience: the mass weenie suicides! 

(and just to be clear, no offense to anyone is intended. I'm one of those weenies...) 

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It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours.  

Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip.  Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning.  If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today.  Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling.  Did we get rid of the weenie tag?  

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3 minutes ago, Dustin said:

It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours.  

Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip.  Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning.  If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today.  Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling.  Did we get rid of the weenie tag?  

thank you

back in the old'n days of posting they would ban posters who would make posts that were all whines and woe- is-me and who cancelled the storm in the first quarter.  I mean I get it, I love snow too and yes I would be disappointed if 90% fell as sleet but nothing we can do about it and all the ranting and complaining ain't gonna change that.

This is a dynamic set up, yes, it could turn into sleetfest '22 for some including me, or we could get sleet followed by a really nice thump, (which I think is more likely).  But I'll sit back, watch it unfold and let the weather do it's thing.

 

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23 minutes ago, Dustin said:

It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours.  

Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip.  Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning.  If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today.  Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling.  Did we get rid of the weenie tag?  

It’s how I cope. LOL

Plus, it helps to have optimistic Buckeye! LOL

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8 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Short range modeling still says we’re good for 6-8”.  I’m staying confident.

18z Nam says 2.8" this is the moment of truth in my opinion. Heavy stuff is coming in. I think if we stay sleet then, I'll be shocked if we move to snow in time to matter. I'm trying to stay optimistic.

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

slop/snow line....   as it sinks southeast that moisture down in TN should skirt along with it moving northeast and there should be a nice zone of snow setting up nearby.

 

radar3.thumb.jpg.f1b720ef1e709acb9b367755e1148549.jpg

On radar it looks like the sleet/snow line is crashing through Dayton.  Maybe in conjunction with this band?

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