jaf316 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: this is the latest hrrr, it's the 18hr panel, (5am), that's 16 hrs from now. None of us know for sure what the sleet to snow ratio is going to end up. Feb sleet storm was always on the table but so is a nice snow storm. More likely a combination that would make us happy to have any other time. Relax and enjoy the tracking, otherwise why the hell are we here. x I It's been so long since we've had a real winter storm to track that I forgot about this phase of the weather tracking experience: the mass weenie suicides! (and just to be clear, no offense to anyone is intended. I'm one of those weenies...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, buckeye said: just checked the cameras at my office in lewis center and still very light there too Wooster showing heavier stuff on radar. It's dry there. Something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I’ve got 5 inches I think lol. Wind keeps blowing it away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 And in Southeast Dayton burbs....the sleet just keeps pounding...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoachLB said: I’ve got 5 inches I think lol. Wind keeps blowing it away. I don't know you, but I now officially hate you (he said as he watched sleet pellets bounce off his window...) (kidding, of course -- enjoy the snow!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1.2" of rain yesterday, 0.5" liquid equivalent today ups my missed snow total to a foot and a half, still no snow at 24.8° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours. Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip. Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning. If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today. Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling. Did we get rid of the weenie tag? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 R/s has been moving SE. I think it’ll hit a wall around US/42 for a while though but dynamic cooling should help out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Dustin said: It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours. Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip. Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning. If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today. Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling. Did we get rid of the weenie tag? thank you back in the old'n days of posting they would ban posters who would make posts that were all whines and woe- is-me and who cancelled the storm in the first quarter. I mean I get it, I love snow too and yes I would be disappointed if 90% fell as sleet but nothing we can do about it and all the ranting and complaining ain't gonna change that. This is a dynamic set up, yes, it could turn into sleetfest '22 for some including me, or we could get sleet followed by a really nice thump, (which I think is more likely). But I'll sit back, watch it unfold and let the weather do it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Well.....some good news with the whines here in Bellbrook....snow starting to mix in with heavy sleet here at 2:20 P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Whine? Me? No. Panic? Maybe a little. Watching that sleet/snow line go north made me panic a bit. It’s helping watching it come back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, Dustin said: It's amazing how much panic there is in this thread from members who the HRRR show picking up 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours. Thinking there's going to be a narrow zone of deformation in the early AM hours that is really going to rip. Still, the HRRR forecast sounding along that line bring the warm tongue right to the 0C isotherm, and the HRRR and GFS certainly missed the depth and intensity of the warm layer this morning. If you look at ILNs sounding from this morning, and check out the NAM's soundings from yesterday's run, it modelled the column incredibly well for today. Those who are upset or not understanding the extent of ZR and sleet this afternoon selectively choose to ignore that in the modelling and sampling. Did we get rid of the weenie tag? It’s how I cope. LOL Plus, it helps to have optimistic Buckeye! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: It’s how I cope. LOL Plus, it helps to have optimistic Buckeye! LOL not picking on you guys....i totally get the frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just saw in the NE Ohio observation thread the Orrville just went over to sleet/zr. I was hoping things were trending away from that for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: not picking on you guys....i totally get the frustration. Oh I know! I am not sensitive so all good. I know who I am. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Short range modeling still says we’re good for 6-8”. I’m staying confident. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Short range modeling still says we’re good for 6-8”. I’m staying confident. 18z Nam says 2.8" this is the moment of truth in my opinion. Heavy stuff is coming in. I think if we stay sleet then, I'll be shocked if we move to snow in time to matter. I'm trying to stay optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 slop/snow line.... as it sinks southeast that moisture down in TN should skirt along with it moving northeast and there should be a nice zone of snow setting up nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: slop/snow line.... as it sinks southeast that moisture down in TN should skirt along with it moving northeast and there should be a nice zone of snow setting up nearby. On radar it looks like the sleet/snow line is crashing through Dayton. Maybe in conjunction with this band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, JayPSU said: On radar it looks like the sleet/snow line is crashing through Dayton. Maybe in conjunction with this band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Dayton was reporting heavy snow at 3pm, so seems accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Would love to see the line pick up the pace and change us over in Columbus near sunset. I think we would still get a major snow out of this if we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 pretty confident once we go to snow we stay snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Gino27 said: Would love to see the line pick up the pace and change us over in Columbus near sunset. I think we would still get a major snow out of this if we do. agree, precip all the way back to arkansas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: pretty confident once we go to snow we stay snow No doubt. Fgen is absolutely cranking too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Now half snow/half sleet....and cranking SE Dayton burbs as of 3:30. Yea! Check....that....mostly big flakeage! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 r/s line is screaming east. Gonna need it to keep up momentum. 850 temp advection is still really strong and there will likely be a warm push from the south to with the last surge in moisture. Really hoping we change over to dynamically cool the column before all this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 My first flake of the storm just happened, buddy of mine has heavy snow 9 miles north of me, my daughter 9 miles SW of me has heavy snow, still heavy sleet here, but a couple tiny flakes trying to mix in FINALLY EDIT: Forgot to mention 1.5" of sleet total, hopefully NO MORE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Still a sleetfest here northside of Newark. Patiently awaiting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Few flakes mixing in here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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