“Let’s Talk Winter”

[dilly84]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

currently but not necessarily accurate.  I'm just north of where it says westerville

Not accurate. I can see mount vernon up there. Can confirm it's very light sleet here.

[buckeye]

10 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Score 1 for the RGEM I guess. I’m calling it…TOD…8:12 AM

 

8 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Kinda funny that nws upped their totals. I mean if it's still sleeting in by 10am that's when I'll officially call it.

 

Thank god you guys aren't ER doctors

[jbcmh81]

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

 

 

Thank god you guys aren't ER doctors

Or meteorologists!!!

[dilly84]

5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

Per user report galena(Delaware area) is still sleet. 

[iluvsnow]

The noon HRRR keeps the sleet/snow line....virtually unmoved for the next 8 hours before slowly sinking SE. Here it is 8 hours down the line....

 

[dilly84]

6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Or meteorologists!!!

You hush your mouth Mr pessimist lol check my page. You can see user reports and get an idea of the sleet line.

[dilly84]

2 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

The noon HRRR keeps the sleet/snow line....virtually unmoved for the next 8 hours before slowly sinking SE. Here it is 8 hours down the line....

 

I'm just not seeing it. We need the cold to shift se about 20 miles to get close to this and soon.

[Gino27]

maybe shoulda stuck with my first map lol. Anyways still a long way to go There’s still snow down to texas

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

maybe shoulda stuck with my first map lol. Anyways still a long way to go There’s still snow down to texas

I went with 2-4 & never changed. Looking good ATM. 

[dilly84]

34 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

The issue is nws says the 2nd wave arrived sooner than thought, which to me translates that the colder air didn't have as much time to push east. Idk we'll see. Not liking reports I'm getting

[jbcmh81]

 

35 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Per user report galena(Delaware area) is still sleet. 

Per social media, it's snowing there.  Also snow now being reported in Galloway, just SE of 270.  Has mostly turned to sleet across the rest of Columbus recently it seems.  That's progress at least!

[dilly84]

Disregard. Still sleet. Got quite a bit if freezing rain, however 

[buckeye]

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate an base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

[buckeye]

Just now, buckeye said:

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate on base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

 

[jbcmh81]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate an base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

Agreed.  I don't think this ends up like the big bust last year.  Every storm is different, so past performance doesn't indicate future results.  There have also been storms that were predicted to be a whole lot of mix and ended up mostly snow.  The February 5-6, 2010 storm being an example.  They don't all go in one direction.

[dilly84]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

Hes so optimistic he's sharing his own post lol

[pondo1000]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate an base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

I know what your 2022 resolution was-optimism! LOL

[JayPSU]

Most of the models I saw last night didn’t show a change to snow until 2-3pm.  I’m not sure what the freak out is about here.  We’re right on schedule.

[Gino27]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate an base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

I don’t think we changeover until around 6pm. 

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Hes so optimistic he's sharing his own post lol

pessimism is easy....optimism takes sack, (especially when it comes to winter storms in CMH) 

[dilly84]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

pessimism is easy....optimism takes sack, (especially when it comes to winter storms in CMH) 

My main concern was meso models were showing me as snow by 7am. Couple that with nws saying 2nd wave is faster, it typically spells doom. However, I've not changed my call... yet. This was my call, I'm living with it. 

[jbcmh81]

See some people reporting snow in Clintonville and OTE, but not sure if they're confusing it with sleet.  

[buckeye]

I think back to some of our classic busts due to more mix and less snow then forecast, it seems many started out as a brief period of snow that transitioned to sleet.   We are going through a slow transition of rain to frz rain to sleet and now we wait for snow.   

[jbcmh81]

3 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

See some people reporting snow in Clintonville and OTE, but not sure if they're confusing it with sleet.  

Confirmed Clintonville was a mix of snow/sleet, OTE was sleet.  John Glenn now reporting a sleet/snow mix as well.

[JayPSU]

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think back to some of our classic busts due to more mix and less snow then forecast, it seems many started out as a brief period of snow that transitioned to sleet.   We are going through a slow transition of rain to frz rain to sleet and now we wait for snow.   

Yep.  If it’s getting to be 4-5pm and we still have sleet, I’ll start to worry.  I think we’re still on track.

[dilly84]

Man down lol. The result of foot going through 4" of snow with a top layer of 1" ice lol

[HighTechEE]

We're having the heaviest sleet of the storm right now and no snow at all at 26.2 degrees and steadily falling, my daughter lives 10 miles SW of me in N Warren Co, she went over to snow back at 9am (Wright Brothers/Dayton General airport is a couple miles west of her)??? 

Also I just saw Jim Cantore is in Columbus today, we'll get to see him dance & go nuts when the Thundersnow hits about 5 or 6pm today!  

[vespasian70]

I'd of course love to have snow, but currently just happy it's sleet with very little zr.

[iluvsnow]

On the Wunderground precip/type maps you can see a notch of sleet has been steady up in to the central and eastern parts of Dayton on south....but just SW there is an area of snow. EE's ob confirms this. If you put the map in motion, you see the sleet line actually pushing north...especially in Southern Indiana. Certainly a battle going on upstairs. Earlier the IND weather discussion mentioned that ILN reported a 4+ upper air warm nose over their ob site. 

Truth be known...while I love heavy blowing snow....one of my other fascinations is watching sleet gradually transition to snow. Hopefully that happens sooner, rather than later.