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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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I'll be sleeping very lightly with my radar handy on my phone and this forum open.  Looks like timeline is between 1 and 4 am for the change from liquid to frozen, then the million dollar question is when the frozen turns to flakes.   I've seen some models have it as early as 5am and of course we have the rgem that really never changes over to all snow until evening.

If it's snowing at 6am, we'll be in very good shape.

 

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Betsy Kling on WKYC Cleveland seems confident of heavy snow in the wee and early morning hours in the Cleveland/Akron area, then a let-up around noon time, then a second strong wave of heavy snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Local Cleveland mets expect heavy snow totals.

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11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Betsy Kling on WKYC Cleveland seems confident of heavy snow in the wee and early morning hours in the Cleveland/Akron area, then a let-up around noon time, then a second strong wave of heavy snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Local Cleveland mets expect heavy snow totals.

I have cleveland in 12-18"

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1 hour ago, jaf316 said:

I take you for a glass-half-empty kind of guy. Am I right? 

Oh yea especially when it comes to "major winter storms" that takes 36 to 48 hours to 'begin' to snow when the heavy snow was only 6 counties away to start!  :whistle:

Edit: 1.10" of cold rain now ~ 13"-ish of missed snow.

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38 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'll be sleeping very lightly with my radar handy on my phone and this forum open.  Looks like timeline is between 1 and 4 am for the change from liquid to frozen, then the million dollar question is when the frozen turns to flakes.   I've seen some models have it as early as 5am and of course we have the rgem that really never changes over to all snow until evening.

If it's snowing at 6am, we'll be in very good shape.

 

0z Hrrr has me switching to snow at 6am see how accurate that is. I'm also curious if it'll be one of those deals where it's snows for an hour then sleets for an hour then snows etc.

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7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

0z Hrrr has me switching ti snow at 6am see how accurate that it. 

Some of the forecast soundings for the HRRR more closely resemble the GFS, with a razor thin above freezing layer where sleet is depicted.  Normally for our area, I wouldn't underestimate how much sleet will fall, but there are some factors in this storm that have me believing it could easily trend towards higher snow amounts and higher freezing rain amounts, with the extent of the swath of sleet being a bit overdone (ala what the GFS has been showing).  Historically, I'd want to hedge towards the NAM doing a better job of handling the northerly extent and depth of the warm tongue, but just the depth and height of the melting layer depicted have had me a bit suspicious of how much sleet will actually fall.  The fact that some sleet is mixing a little ahead of forecast in some areas has me wondering if there will be an earlier switch to snow.  

Honestly, though, I'd not be surprised if it goes the opposite way and the extent of freezing rain is much more northward.  This is the type of nightmare to forecast the makes me glad I veered away from the professional forecaster route.  Much more fun to track when you've got nothing at stake :D

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17 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

No real reports of mixing that I've seen in the transition zone so far- just rain to snow.  Hopefully that can translate east in the 71 corridor.

I'm roughly 20 miles from the rain snow line on radar, so will soon get to see how accurate radar is, if it's picking up on sleet etc

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