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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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1 minute ago, jaf316 said:

NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! 

Even the trash HRRR is a big improvement.   I don't think we'll have a handle on snow vs. ice until tonight when the first overrunning slug runs through and we can see where the front makes it to for the wave following it.    I've noticed there is more and more of a lull in precip showing up between the first and second wave, that lull might allow the cold air to progress a little more southeast.

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I've noticed that the last couple days worth of GFS runs has the entire column (925 on down) going below freezing about 06z tonight right after midnight EST and staying that way for the duration of the storm with about 1.4" of liquid equivalent falling which should be in the form of snow, not mostly sleet as the NWS is calling for in the Dayton area.  How can that be if there is no liquid falling to turn into sleet?

FCST
Hour
Valid
Time
2mT
°F
Max
Temp °F
Min
Temp °F
Td
°F
10m
Wind mph
925mb
Wind mph
850mb
Wind mph
Total
Precip(")
Accum
Precip
Conv
Precip(")
500-1000
THKNS
500mb
Height
500mb
Temp°C
850mb
Temp°C
925mb
Temp°C
MSLP
mb
Total
Cloud Cover
700mb
VV
850mb
Td(°C)
swrd
3 Wed 02/02 09Z 40.3 41.5 40.2 33.3 S 11 SSW 37 SSW 30 0.00"   0.00" 548 5633.7 -19.0 -1.6 8.0 1019.2 100.0 -0.1 -5° 0.0
6 Wed 02/02 12Z 39.4 41.5 39.0 33.1 S 11 SSW 37 SSW 31 0.00"   0.00" 546 5628.8 -17.8 -2.5 6.3 1020.6 100.0 -0.6 -11° 0.0
9 Wed 02/02 15Z 40.6 40.8 38.9 39.5 SSW 11 SSW 33 SSW 47 0.15" 0.15 0.00" 545 5621.2 -17.5 -3.0 4.9 1021.2 100.0 -1.0 -3° 10.3
12 Wed 02/02 18Z 40.6 42.5 38.9 39.0 SSE 15 S 33 SW 68 0.26" 0.41 0.00" 546 5617.3 -17.6 -1.9 3.4 1019.2 100.0 -1.1 -2° 21.0
15 Wed 02/02 21Z 40.3 41.1 39.7 38.7 S 14 S 29 SW 45 0.12" 0.53 0.00" 546 5605.7 -18.7 -0.9 3.1 1017.8 100.0 -0.7 -1° 13.0
18 Thu 02/03 00Z 40.4 41.4 39.5 39.5 S 11 S 26 WSW 45 0.12" 0.65 0.00" 546 5607.1 -18.5 -1.1 3.8 1017.6 100.0 -0.8 -1° 7.3
21 Thu 02/03 03Z 39.2 40.7 38.8 38.7 S 1 SW 13 WSW 48 0.10" 0.75 0.00" 546 5610.0 -17.8 -1.3 4.4 1018.4 100.0 -0.2 -1° 0.0
24 Thu 02/03 06Z 30.8 40.9 30.7 29.3 N 14 NNE 23 WSW 42 0.09" 0.84 0.00" 544 5609.5 -17.6 -1.9 -2.1 1021.1 100.0 -0.6 -2° 0.0
27 Thu 02/03 09Z 27.4 30.7 27.4 25.8 NNE 14 NNE 27 SW 47 0.11" 0.95 0.00" 543 5608.2 -18.4 -1.4 -4.6 1022.0 100.0 -0.5 -2° 0.0
30 Thu 02/03 12Z 25.7 30.7 25.7 24.0 NNE 15 NNE 29 SW 50 0.11" 1.06 0.00" 542 5612.2 -17.9 -0.8 -6.1 1024.2 100.0 -0.6 -1° 0.0
33 Thu 02/03 15Z 23.2 25.6 23.2 21.1 NNE 16 NNE 31 SW 42 0.06" 1.12 0.00" 542 5617.0 -16.1 -1.3 -7.6 1024.7 100.0 -0.2 -1° 11.1
36 Thu 02/03 18Z 22.3 25.6 21.9 20.6 NNE 19 NNE 36 SW 36 0.20" 1.32 0.00" 544 5617.4 -15.1 -0.8 -7.7 1022.4 100.0 -0.2 -1° 26.5
39 Thu 02/03 21Z 20.2 22.4 20.2 18.3 NNE 20 NNE 38 SSW 30 0.35" 1.67 0.00" 544 5607.5 -13.2 -1.3 -8.7 1021.1 100.0 -0.7 -1° 39.4
42 Fri 02/04 00Z 18.0 22.4 18.0 15.9 NNE 20 NNE 39 WSW 17 0.35" 2.02 0.00" 542 5603.7 -13.6 -2.7 -9.9 1023.6 100.0 -0.4 -3° 22.7
45 Fri 02/04 03Z 16.9 17.9 16.9 14.4 NNE 18 NNE 35 W 13 0.13" 2.15 0.00" 541 5597.6 -13.7 -3.0 -10.6 1024.3 100.0 0.1 -3° 0.0
48 Fri 02/04 06Z 15.6 17.9 15.6 13.2 NNE 16 NNE 32 WSW 10 0.02" 2.17 0.00" 539 5579.6 -15.5 -3.7 -11.4 1025.4 100.0 -0.0 -4° 0.0
51 Fri 02/04 09Z 14.8 15.6 14.8 12.4 NNE 15 NNE 30 WNW 14 0.04" 2.21 0.00" 536 5556.4 -17.2 -4.6 -11.8 1025.7 100.0 0.2 -5° 0.0
54 Fri 02/04 12Z 13.9 15.6 13.9 11.2 N 14 NNE 28 WNW 16 0.03" 2.24 0.00" 533 5540.2 -21.1 -7.0 -12.4 1028.1 100.0 -0.0 -8° 0.0
57 Fri 02/04 15Z 14.6 14.7 13.5 11.4 N 12 NNE 23 WNW 17 0.01" 2.25 0.00" 530 5526.5 -24.2 -8.5 -12.5 1029.7 100.0 -0.0 -14° 81.5

 

PS - I've officially lost 2" of snow as my rain gauge has 0.2" so far (assuming it would be a 10 to 1 ratio).

 

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20 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

2-3-22-snow.thumb.png.70081fe7354ea3b85378717563ba2818.png

2-3-22-ice.thumb.png.a09b199cec60657e8018513d4de2f1a8.png

Here's the maps I just posted on my twitter page. I'm riding with the warmer guidance for now. The system seems a little bit moisture starved as of now, and I think that will reduce dynamic cooling.

Shouldn't need dynamic cooling. That high should have no issue getting cold air in against the weak low. Low has perfect placement, and the setup in general is perfect. Each meso run creeps further southeast. Idk what I'm going with yet. I'm watching a bit more than doing my final. 

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On 1/27/2022 at 4:35 PM, buckeye said:

Heard from another post that JB's folks both died at the same time last Wednesday.   Turned out to be true.  I wonder how that happens?   Pretty rough stuff, I wonder if he's taking a hiatus.

He posted on Twitter today that both died from COVID. 

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1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

GFS at noon, so far, looks a hair further south with the sleet/snow line....but that just may be my bad eyes. EE, please replicate your column temp forecast chart for the noon GFS run, when its available. Maybe it snows mostly in Kables Mill and Eagle Rise and sleets in Waynesville:rambo:

Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods!

That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different:  MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH  The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave.

BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks!  Boy and girls this is a new record!!! :arrowhead:

 

 

GFS 12Z Total 384 Accum 02022022.JPG

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7 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods!

That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different:  MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH  The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave.

BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks!  Boy and girls this is a new record!!! :arrowhead:

 

 

GFS 12Z Total 384 Accum 02022022.JPG

What's that blast coming from?

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32 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods!

That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different:  MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH  The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave.

BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks!  Boy and girls this is a new record!!! :arrowhead:

 

 

GFS 12Z Total 384 Accum 02022022.JPG

Thanks EE. Keep the fingers crossed. If 1/6th of that happened....we'd have something to tell our grandkids some day.

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2 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods!

That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different:  MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH  The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave.

BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks!  Boy and girls this is a new record!!! :arrowhead:

 

 

GFS 12Z Total 384 Accum 02022022.JPG

Does this include the foot of snow Dayton will be receiving this week ?

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