jaf316 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, jaf316 said: NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! Even the trash HRRR is a big improvement. I don't think we'll have a handle on snow vs. ice until tonight when the first overrunning slug runs through and we can see where the front makes it to for the wave following it. I've noticed there is more and more of a lull in precip showing up between the first and second wave, that lull might allow the cold air to progress a little more southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, jaf316 said: NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! Low position was further SE & weaker though so that is also good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Concur on the HRRR looking better. Of course it depends on where you live. Kinda like whistling Johnny Cash....(I Walk the Line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I've noticed that the last couple days worth of GFS runs has the entire column (925 on down) going below freezing about 06z tonight right after midnight EST and staying that way for the duration of the storm with about 1.4" of liquid equivalent falling which should be in the form of snow, not mostly sleet as the NWS is calling for in the Dayton area. How can that be if there is no liquid falling to turn into sleet? FCST Hour Valid Time 2mT °F Max Temp °F Min Temp °F Td °F 10m Wind mph 925mb Wind mph 850mb Wind mph Total Precip(") Accum Precip Conv Precip(") 500-1000 THKNS 500mb Height 500mb Temp°C 850mb Temp°C 925mb Temp°C MSLP mb Total Cloud Cover 700mb VV 850mb Td(°C) swrd 3 Wed 02/02 09Z 40.3 41.5 40.2 33.3 S 11 SSW 37 SSW 30 0.00" 0.00" 548 5633.7 -19.0 -1.6 8.0 1019.2 100.0 -0.1 -5° 0.0 6 Wed 02/02 12Z 39.4 41.5 39.0 33.1 S 11 SSW 37 SSW 31 0.00" 0.00" 546 5628.8 -17.8 -2.5 6.3 1020.6 100.0 -0.6 -11° 0.0 9 Wed 02/02 15Z 40.6 40.8 38.9 39.5 SSW 11 SSW 33 SSW 47 0.15" 0.15 0.00" 545 5621.2 -17.5 -3.0 4.9 1021.2 100.0 -1.0 -3° 10.3 12 Wed 02/02 18Z 40.6 42.5 38.9 39.0 SSE 15 S 33 SW 68 0.26" 0.41 0.00" 546 5617.3 -17.6 -1.9 3.4 1019.2 100.0 -1.1 -2° 21.0 15 Wed 02/02 21Z 40.3 41.1 39.7 38.7 S 14 S 29 SW 45 0.12" 0.53 0.00" 546 5605.7 -18.7 -0.9 3.1 1017.8 100.0 -0.7 -1° 13.0 18 Thu 02/03 00Z 40.4 41.4 39.5 39.5 S 11 S 26 WSW 45 0.12" 0.65 0.00" 546 5607.1 -18.5 -1.1 3.8 1017.6 100.0 -0.8 -1° 7.3 21 Thu 02/03 03Z 39.2 40.7 38.8 38.7 S 1 SW 13 WSW 48 0.10" 0.75 0.00" 546 5610.0 -17.8 -1.3 4.4 1018.4 100.0 -0.2 -1° 0.0 24 Thu 02/03 06Z 30.8 40.9 30.7 29.3 N 14 NNE 23 WSW 42 0.09" 0.84 0.00" 544 5609.5 -17.6 -1.9 -2.1 1021.1 100.0 -0.6 -2° 0.0 27 Thu 02/03 09Z 27.4 30.7 27.4 25.8 NNE 14 NNE 27 SW 47 0.11" 0.95 0.00" 543 5608.2 -18.4 -1.4 -4.6 1022.0 100.0 -0.5 -2° 0.0 30 Thu 02/03 12Z 25.7 30.7 25.7 24.0 NNE 15 NNE 29 SW 50 0.11" 1.06 0.00" 542 5612.2 -17.9 -0.8 -6.1 1024.2 100.0 -0.6 -1° 0.0 33 Thu 02/03 15Z 23.2 25.6 23.2 21.1 NNE 16 NNE 31 SW 42 0.06" 1.12 0.00" 542 5617.0 -16.1 -1.3 -7.6 1024.7 100.0 -0.2 -1° 11.1 36 Thu 02/03 18Z 22.3 25.6 21.9 20.6 NNE 19 NNE 36 SW 36 0.20" 1.32 0.00" 544 5617.4 -15.1 -0.8 -7.7 1022.4 100.0 -0.2 -1° 26.5 39 Thu 02/03 21Z 20.2 22.4 20.2 18.3 NNE 20 NNE 38 SSW 30 0.35" 1.67 0.00" 544 5607.5 -13.2 -1.3 -8.7 1021.1 100.0 -0.7 -1° 39.4 42 Fri 02/04 00Z 18.0 22.4 18.0 15.9 NNE 20 NNE 39 WSW 17 0.35" 2.02 0.00" 542 5603.7 -13.6 -2.7 -9.9 1023.6 100.0 -0.4 -3° 22.7 45 Fri 02/04 03Z 16.9 17.9 16.9 14.4 NNE 18 NNE 35 W 13 0.13" 2.15 0.00" 541 5597.6 -13.7 -3.0 -10.6 1024.3 100.0 0.1 -3° 0.0 48 Fri 02/04 06Z 15.6 17.9 15.6 13.2 NNE 16 NNE 32 WSW 10 0.02" 2.17 0.00" 539 5579.6 -15.5 -3.7 -11.4 1025.4 100.0 -0.0 -4° 0.0 51 Fri 02/04 09Z 14.8 15.6 14.8 12.4 NNE 15 NNE 30 WNW 14 0.04" 2.21 0.00" 536 5556.4 -17.2 -4.6 -11.8 1025.7 100.0 0.2 -5° 0.0 54 Fri 02/04 12Z 13.9 15.6 13.9 11.2 N 14 NNE 28 WNW 16 0.03" 2.24 0.00" 533 5540.2 -21.1 -7.0 -12.4 1028.1 100.0 -0.0 -8° 0.0 57 Fri 02/04 15Z 14.6 14.7 13.5 11.4 N 12 NNE 23 WNW 17 0.01" 2.25 0.00" 530 5526.5 -24.2 -8.5 -12.5 1029.7 100.0 -0.0 -14° 81.5 PS - I've officially lost 2" of snow as my rain gauge has 0.2" so far (assuming it would be a 10 to 1 ratio). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Rgem definitely moved south this run. Still puts us on the line of sleetfest. A line from stark to franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Here's the maps I just posted on my twitter page. I'm riding with the warmer guidance for now. The system seems a little bit moisture starved as of now, and I think that will reduce dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS at noon, so far, looks a hair further south with the sleet/snow line....but that just may be my bad eyes. EE, please replicate your column temp forecast chart for the noon GFS run, when its available. Maybe it snows mostly in Kables Mill and Eagle Rise and sleets in Waynesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Here's the maps I just posted on my twitter page. I'm riding with the warmer guidance for now. The system seems a little bit moisture starved as of now, and I think that will reduce dynamic cooling. Shouldn't need dynamic cooling. That high should have no issue getting cold air in against the weak low. Low has perfect placement, and the setup in general is perfect. Each meso run creeps further southeast. Idk what I'm going with yet. I'm watching a bit more than doing my final. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Gfs and ukie have been the only 2 models that's remained consistent for the last 3 days. I think I'm gonna ride with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 HRRR has been working on filling in that dry slot. I’m liking that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Rap model has the freezing rain/snow line running through Guernsey County. So quite a bit se of many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not sure if the RAP is tracking the same storm as the other models, or if a weenie took over the controls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Not sure if the RAP is tracking the same storm as the other models, or if a weenie took over the controls? The heavy amount at bottom isn't taking into account sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 That’s some pound town sleet on the Rap lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:35 PM, buckeye said: Heard from another post that JB's folks both died at the same time last Wednesday. Turned out to be true. I wonder how that happens? Pretty rough stuff, I wonder if he's taking a hiatus. He posted on Twitter today that both died from COVID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, iluvsnow said: GFS at noon, so far, looks a hair further south with the sleet/snow line....but that just may be my bad eyes. EE, please replicate your column temp forecast chart for the noon GFS run, when its available. Maybe it snows mostly in Kables Mill and Eagle Rise and sleets in Waynesville Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods! That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different: MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave. BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks! Boy and girls this is a new record!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods! That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different: MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave. BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks! Boy and girls this is a new record!!! What's that blast coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods! That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different: MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave. BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks! Boy and girls this is a new record!!! Thanks EE. Keep the fingers crossed. If 1/6th of that happened....we'd have something to tell our grandkids some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: He posted on Twitter today that both died from COVID. that's terrible. Thanks for the update, I had a hunch it was covid and maybe they were removed from the ventilators at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Is it just me or is the cold coming in quicker? Down to 37 here in Johnstown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Dropped from 45 degrees to 41 within a 3 hours, here in Cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Temps are definitely running a bit cool in spots. The main front is still where expected, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z euro is looking decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, CoachLB said: 12z euro is looking decent 2hrs late on that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, dilly84 said: 2hrs late on that one lol Don’t forget to post your final call map here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Don’t forget to post your final call map here! I dont care to get dragged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, HighTechEE said: Yea 20 miles north or south is big deal with this one in our neck of the woods! That matrix of data is GFS, but it's not noted anywhere on this page, I have this one for area code 45305 (Bellbrook) and the one for KDAY is obviously much different: MeteoStar Home > Forecast > Bellbrook, OH The 12z is about exactly the same as the 06z where the column goes below 0C and stays there at 06z (1am here) while 1.4" of liquid equivalent still falls for the duration of the 2nd wave. BTW anyone get a load of the 12z GFS 384 eye candy map of KDAY getting over 4ft of snow the next two weeks! Boy and girls this is a new record!!! Does this include the foot of snow Dayton will be receiving this week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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