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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It's all good.  This debate about splitting off the sub comes up every year.   This sub is definitely Chicago to lower Michigan centric.   

Thanks, I am certainly more severe weather interested being from Texas but these bigger snow storms attract my interest.  Certainly ready for spring.  We appear to not be far.  I am in the Strawberry Farms neighborhood kinda of Westerville as far as schools are concerned, lol.

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4 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Again, perfect placement. Low through Eastern KY to near Morgantown or so, yet keeps us sleet the entire time. Sigh. It appears no model is going to cave, so apparently it's take your pick. Unless... GFS caves 0z.

This is what I don’t get.  I get this warm tongue thing up the Scioto River Valley but this is a strong wave not a strong low pressure system.  I just don’t get the warm bias making it’s way up here.

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3 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

This is what I don’t get.  I get this warm tongue thing up the Scioto River Valley but this is a strong wave not a strong low pressure system.  I just don’t get the warm bias making it’s way up here.

Phasing of jets and left exit region stuff that get this thing amped vs. what you'd typically see with that SLP pos

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5 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

This is what I don’t get.  I get this warm tongue thing up the Scioto River Valley but this is a strong wave not a strong low pressure system.  I just don’t get the warm bias making it’s way up here.

It's not really about incoming warm air, it's about dislodging warm air with Arctic air.   The shallow air is going to cool quickly while the upper layers will take more time.  That's why we have the ice threat.  It's such a thread the needle situation where we are located.   The overrunning further north is easy.  It's what happens after that, that gets convoluted.

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23 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Again, perfect placement. Low through Eastern KY to near Morgantown or so, yet keeps us sleet the entire time. Sigh. It appears no model is going to cave, so apparently it's take your pick. Unless... GFS caves 0z.

And, GFS? Looked like less amounts but couldn’t tell if it went NW/SE

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