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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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2 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

I'm thinking we all want it SE for better ratios and the inevitable NW trend/warm tongue of death... even though this setup doesn't really warrant that I guess.

I've tried to hold in excitement since 6z runs lol. Very rare potential for us. Like a once every 20 year event. Hard to not get excited seeing the runs. Even the amount shown will be underdone in areas where the heaviest bands set up. Can see someone get some 2" an hour rates for a time with this. 

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Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south.

Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover?   Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest.

Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover  and many times where the changeover took forever.    No idea which way yet.

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Just now, buckeye said:

Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south.

Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover?   Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest.

Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover  and many times where the changeover took forever.    No idea which way yet.

Are they really expecting that much of a warm up to rain Wednesday?

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32 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south.

Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover?   Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest.

Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover  and many times where the changeover took forever.    No idea which way yet.

My concern is the differences models show where the rn/sn line sets up is pretty big between them. GFS is best case but you still have the nam and rgem still pretty far north of it. Can't really see the euro, and the cmc is a bit north of the gfs as well. I'm anxiously awaiting 12z runs. Hoping nam comes in line with the gfs this run

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10 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

My concern is the differences models show where the rn/sn line sets up is pretty big between them. GFS is best case but you still have the nam and rgem still pretty far north of it. Can't really see the euro, and the cmc is a bit north of the gfs as well. I'm anxiously awaiting 12z runs. Hoping nam comes in line with the gfs this run

Nam is pushing in the cold quicker.   Looks like it's moving towards the gfs....so far

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Nam definitely looks better, less mix more snow.   Fairly significant southeast shift.

Agree. Kinda odd it didn't really show up on the clown maps. Looks more like a 10 mile shift on there but other parts of the run looked pretty significant compared to 6z. 

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Just now, Gino27 said:

Most of Columbus is still shafted. Gonna need another day of model shifts like we had yesterday 

the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling.  Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around.     At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out.   Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line?

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9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling.  Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around.     At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out.   Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line?

We love the line. Best thing is that I think the icing risk is reduced for Columbus area. Maybe I’ll pile up 3” of sleet like last year here on OSU campus. The snow shenanigans are always worth it!

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3 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

We love the line. Best thing is that I think the icing risk is reduced for Columbus area. Maybe I’ll pile up 3” of sleet like last year here on OSU campus. The snow shenanigans are always worth it!

worst sleet storm I recall was in Feb '94,    we were sitting at 15 degrees all day with heavy sleet.   I think we got 3-4" of it and then that evening it changed to freezing rain with thunderstorms.   The next day people were ice skating on high street.

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15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling.  Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around.     At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out.   Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line?

Fv3 looks crushing. 

Screenshot_20220201-095410_Chrome.thumb.jpg.31236c13df0661a9941f0260585e3a07.jpg

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Just now, dilly84 said:

There is, really. Canadian decided to become an outlier today. Ukie still looks good 

yea, canadian looks like trash.   Not just because it takes long to changeover, but it's pretty dry with the follow up wave.

other than that, good trends.   See what euro does then it's on to mesos and radar

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea, canadian looks like trash.   Not just because it takes long to changeover, but it's pretty dry with the follow up wave.

other than that, good trends.   See what euro does then it's on to mesos and radar

Agree. Now if euro looks like Canadian, we could have an issue. I'm hoping it comes back to its solution from a couple days ago as it was more in line with the gfs.

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