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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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13 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

I think you're right. The pressing high seems to be getting a little bit stronger with every run. Just hope it doesn't get too strong and miss to the south. It's gotta balance at just the right spot for us to jackpot. 

That has happened many times before and can happen w/ this one for sure! 

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29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't think it's a blip.   I'm trying to keep mby biases out of my thinking but I really believe this continues ticking southeast as the models are starting to make the northern branch quicker and stronger with the high.   We've seen this before.  Unlike an organized storm coming out of the southern states where I'd be worried about a nw last minute shift, this is essentially a pushing arctic boundary with copius overrunning moisture and no wound up low to pull up a warm tongue or phase into something stronger.

 

Hard to keep the bias out. If you go look at the storm thread, most believe it'll trend back nw. Why is that their thinking? Mostly because it benefits their own back yard snow-wise. The gem went a little north, but all the others went south of where they were at 0z. Interested to see if euro keeps the nw trend or of it corrects back se.

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3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Hard to keep the bias out. If you go look at the storm thread, most believe it'll trend back nw. Why is that their thinking? Mostly because it benefits their own back yard snow-wise. The gem went a little north, but all the others went south of where they were at 0z. Interested to see if euro keeps the nw trend or of it corrects back se.

I'm biased because I live in Summit County. That being said, as someone wanting it to come south, the trends today are much more encouraging than 24 hrs ago.

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3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Hard to keep the bias out. If you go look at the storm thread, most believe it'll trend back nw. Why is that their thinking? Mostly because it benefits their own back yard snow-wise. The gem went a little north, but all the others went south of where they were at 0z. Interested to see if euro keeps the nw trend or of it corrects back se.

So true but I think we’re all guilty of that. Funny, we seem to hump the model that gives us the best chance but it’s a very open relationship as that model of choice to hump is ever changing. LOL

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17 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

So true but I think we’re all guilty of that. Funny, we seem to hump the model that gives us the best chance but it’s a very open relationship as that model of choice to hump is ever changing. LOL

Eh, agree to an extent. On my page I clearly put where I think the snow and ice would be based on all models, not just one. As today, every model but one came SE. I dont think that's an error. An error would be if one went se and the others remained or went nw. But I digress. I think we'll have good handle by 12z tomorrow(I hope). Only 2 days out.

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20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looks like euro ticked southeast a bit.   We're riding the taint/snow line as usual....that would be a good thing with the trends

hopefully

It looked a lot better on 500mb vort than it actually ended up on surface. Hopefully we can keep this going with tonight's runs. Anything but ice is good with me lol.

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1 minute ago, Gino27 said:

It looked a lot better on 500mb vort than it actually ended up on surface. Hopefully we can keep this going with tonight's runs. Anything but ice is good with me lol.

Noticed that as well.   I always flip through the 500mb first and the shift southeast was much more evident then the surface map showed.  

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Just now, buckeye said:

Noticed that as well.   I always flip through the 500mb first and the shift southeast was much more evident then the surface map showed.  

Yep I noticed mostly that the trough was a lot more positive around hour 72 which favors us a lot. 12z euro missed out on good confluence press that the GFS has been showing the last 2 runs. Progress is progress...

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8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

First WSW in 100 years just hoisted!

I don't love the wording, though. Scary stuff.

IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

I'm also a little surprised they aren't mentioning the sleet either.

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3 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

I don't love the wording, though. Scary stuff.

IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

I'm also a little surprised they aren't mentioning the sleet either.

Sounds horrible. Even south of us does not sound good either. Can only hope for us to get what they are supposed to get north of us. I would much rather deal with a foot of snow* than this glacial ice crap. Just thinking about Xmas 2004 makes me shudder.

 

*I know this is heresy, but at this point I want Spring and really would like just all heavy rain. 

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4 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Next couple model runs will tell the tale if this is going to move further south and be more snow, stay the same for a dangerous slop fest, or go north for more rain and slop.  I'm still leaning towards this nudging a big further south.  

Nam is a mega sleet fest for us. Still nudged south though.

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10 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Nam is a mega sleet fest for us. Still nudged south though.

Sleet is slightly better than freezing rain.  It would at least theoretically indicate a faster changeover to snow at some point.

Edit: The ILN AFD was pretty light on giving any explanation for their thinking.  No talk of models, trends or anything.  I think that means they just don't know.  

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22 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Yep, but still an absolutely catastrophic ice storm on it for I-71.  

Good thing I made my grocery run for myself and my father yesterday. With the watches being posted I. cannot. imagine. what Kroger is going to look like from here on out. And I got almost the last eggs left and there were NO crackers and only two boxes of Wheaties left! lol. I don't even drink cow's milk but I bought some...herd mentality I guess.

 

*goes to pray to the Gods of Winter to spare us from ice

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13 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

Good thing I made my grocery run for myself and my father yesterday. With the watches being posted I. cannot. imagine. what Kroger is going to look like from here on out. And I got almost the last eggs left and there were NO crackers and only two boxes of Wheaties left! lol. I don't even drink cow's milk but I bought some...herd mentality I guess.

 

*goes to pray to the Gods of Winter to spare us from ice

Yeah me too. $131 to stock up. Might still order a giant pizza on Wednesday afternoon to have throughout the storm.

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