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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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the 12z gfs is our nightmare and the 12z ggem is our dream.    Provides a perfect window into what we need to happen and what we hope doesn't happen.    GGEM is trending stronger with the high pressure and push south, it also holds back the sw more and strings it out.   GFS sends out more of a consolidated sw and has a weaker northern stream.

Trying to stay completely unbiased I think in a set up where a positively tilted trough with a pressing arctic high is going to be more likely to trend towards a southeast push.   We really haven't had a storm with a pushing arctic high yet this season.    The one last weekend was on the backside of the high and that kept it more west.

Still a lot of moving parts and I honestly don't think we'll have even  a general idea until monday 00z and even then it's still 2-3 days out.

fun one to track though no matter what happens

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

ukmet is really progressive, actually takes the storm that forms on the front east of us and whiffs us.    The uk has been pretty progressive all season though    I remember it use to be the model that would bomb out every storm in the 6 day range.   

Not all that far off from what the euro just did. This thing is gonna change a lot in the next 3 days. I'm not sure I buy the anafront solutions to be honest.

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Seems to be some nervous posts in the other thread regarding the early week storm's heaviest snow axis moving south.  To me, it looked like 0z-6z runs were obviously further south. 

I agree with Buckeye about a pressing cold high tends to move things further south the closer in time we get, so maybe this is part of that, or maybe it's just a couple bad runs and we see it go back north, which wouldn't be the first time.  Climo this time of the year does favor further south though.  Even with the further south track shown, it wouldn't be a big snow event for central and southern parts of Ohio.  More rain south and significant ice for central.  Places like the northern Miami Valley would be hammered with snow, though.  

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5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Seems to be some nervous posts in the other thread regarding the early week storm's heaviest snow axis moving south.  To me, it looked like 0z-6z runs were obviously further south. 

I agree with Buckeye about a pressing cold high tends to move things further south the closer in time we get, so maybe this is part of that, or maybe it's just a couple bad runs and we see it go back north, which wouldn't be the first time.  Climo this time of the year does favor further south though.  Even with the further south track shown, it wouldn't be a big snow event for central and southern parts of Ohio.  More rain south and significant ice for central.  Places like the northern Miami Valley would be hammered with snow, though.  

Looong way to go on this. I don’t know if anyone ever checks the weather channel app but for amusement purposes you should. Insane totals it’s throwing out there for my area & this far out. It changes all the time but nonetheless it’s pretty funny. Buddy told me they use the GFSv16 to create their forecasts? 

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11 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Looong way to go on this. I don’t know if anyone ever checks the weather channel app but for amusement purposes you should. Insane totals it’s throwing out there for my area & this far out. It changes all the time but nonetheless it’s pretty funny. Buddy told me they use the GFSv16 to create their forecasts? 

I had heard it's a model blend that mostly favors the euro. That would be the only model showing big totals this far south anyways. Still gonna take a lot for that to happen imo. Today's runs will definitely tell a lot of the story. Hopefully we keep seeing things move in our direction. Like we said above, it's been so long since a big storm for Columbus.

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13 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

I had heard it's a model blend that mostly favors the euro. That would be the only model showing big totals this far south anyways. Still gonna take a lot for that to happen imo. Today's runs will definitely tell a lot of the story. Hopefully we keep seeing things move in our direction. Like we said above, it's been so long since a big storm for Columbus.

I don't actually think it would take all that much to give Columbus a decent storm.  Probably wouldn't be in the axis of highest totals regardless, but it wouldn't take much more of a south move to put all of Central Ohio in the 6"+ totals, which would be on the larger side of typical storms for the area.  

With Buckeye's pressing high and climo, I would hedge my bets for a storm track further south than north, though.  At least right now.  

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1 hour ago, jbcmh81 said:

I don't actually think it would take all that much to give Columbus a decent storm.  Probably wouldn't be in the axis of highest totals regardless, but it wouldn't take much more of a south move to put all of Central Ohio in the 6"+ totals, which would be on the larger side of typical storms for the area.  

With Buckeye's pressing high and climo, I would hedge my bets for a storm track further south than north, though.  At least right now.  

Agree. Right now 50 mile shift for myself is the difference between 3" and 20" 

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Looking down the road two weeks from today 12z GFS has KDAY at -28.2 for the morning low!!!  There would have to be a serious amount of snow on the ground to achieve that. :blink:

300 Sat 02/12 00Z 5.2 18.9 5.2 -0.7 WNW 13 WNW 23 WSW 64 0.00"   0.00" 514 5371.9 -30.2 -15.5 -17.8 1030.4 100.0 0.1 -16° 260.0
303 Sat 02/12 03Z -0.8 5.1 -0.8 -6.8 WNW 12 WNW 22 WSW 60 0.00"   0.00" 512 5360.3 -30.1 -16.8 -21.4 1033.0 100.0 -0.2 -19° 0.0
306 Sat 02/12 06Z -4.9 5.1 -4.9 -11.2 WNW 11 WNW 21 WSW 55 0.00"   0.00" 508 5334.4 -30.0 -19.1 -23.8 1034.3 100.0 -0.0 -25° 0.0
309 Sat 02/12 09Z -12.0 -5.0 -12.0 -18.2 WNW 9 NW 22 WSW 49 0.00"   0.00" 505 5302.1 -29.2 -21.0 -25.8 1035.2 24.7 0.1 -46° 0.0
312 Sat 02/12 12Z -24.6 -5.0 -24.6 -30.5 W 6 NW 20 W 41 0.00"   0.00" 501 5275.5 -30.3 -23.4 -26.5 1037.5 5.3 0.0 -49° 0.0
315 Sat 02/12 15Z -16.5 -16.5 -25.9 -23.2 WNW 8 NW 16 W 33 0.00"   0.00" 499 5252.0 -31.1 -25.7 -26.9 1037.6 5.0 0.1 -47° 162.1
318 Sat 02/12 18Z -7.6 -7.6 -25.9 -15.2 WNW 10 WNW 13 W 29 0.00"   0.00" 496 5220.8 -32.8 -27.8 -26.0 1035.7 97.2 0.0 -45° 385.5
321 Sat 02/12 21Z -5.4 -5.3 -7.5 -13.6 WNW 11 WNW 16 WNW 28 0.00"   0.00" 493 5184.2 -35.8 -29.9 -24.4 1034.9 100.0 -0.1 -44° 560.0
324 Sun 02/13 00Z -13.4 -5.3 -13.4 -19.5 W 8 WNW 22 WNW 25 0.00"   0.00" 490 5169.9 -37.0 -31.1 -25.4 1037.0 30.3 0.1 -44° 331.3
327 Sun 02/13 03Z -21.0 -13.6 -21.0 -26.9 W 6 WNW 23 NW 23 0.00"   0.00" 490 5177.6 -36.5 -31.6 -25.8 1038.8 5.6 0.2 -42° 0.0
330 Sun 02/13 06Z -24.7 -13.6 -24.7 -30.7 WSW 6 NW 20 NW 25 0.00"   0.00" 493 5211.7 -31.5 -30.6 -25.0 1039.7 7.3 0.2 -43° 0.0
333 Sun 02/13 09Z -27.1 -24.8 -27.1 -33.2 WSW 5 WNW 19 NW 29 0.00"   0.00" 499 5278.9 -28.5 -28.4 -24.2 1041.0 5.0 0.3 -44° 0.0
336 Sun 02/13 12Z -27.8 -24.8 -28.2 -34.0 WSW 3 NW 12 NW 36 0.00"   0.00" 505 5343.2 -27.7 -23.5 -22.9 1041.9 5.0 0.3 -49° 0.0
339 Sun 02/13 15Z -12.1 -12.1 -27.7 -19.6 WSW 5 W 6 NW 31 0.00"   0.00" 509 5395.4 -27.4 -21.2 -22.8 1042.9 5.0 0.4 -47° 164.6
342 Sun 02/13 18Z -1.2 -1.2 -27.8 -9.8 SW 6 SW 8 NW 26 0.00"   0.00" 511 5420.3 -26.8 -20.0 -22.8 1042.2 77.6 0.2 -47° 374.2
345 Sun 02/13 21Z 2.9 2.9 -1.1 -6.5 SSE 3 SSE 5 W 28 0.00"   0.00" 514 5433.5 -26.8 -17.3 -20.2 1040.1 98.8 0.2 -41° 522.7
348 Mon 02/14 00Z 3.7 3.8 -1.1 -2.2 ESE 4 SSE 11 W 30 0.00"   0.00" 515 5450.2 -26.5 -15.7 -18.8 1040.2 100.0 -0.1 -16° 299.1
351 Mon 02/14 03Z 4.4 4.4 3.7 0.3 ESE 6 SSE 16 WSW 39 0.00"   0.00" 517 5460.4 -26.8 -16.5 -17.1 1039.6 100.0 -0.1 -17° 0.0
354 Mon 02/14 06Z 6.8 6.8 3.7 2.0 SE 7 S 20 WSW 41 0.00"   0.00" 517 5461.9 -28.5 -16.1 -15.9 1038.8 100.0 -0.1 -16° 0.0
357 Mon 02/14 09Z 6.2 7.6 5.9 2.0 SE 6 SSW 18 WSW 44 0.00"   0.00" 518 5472.3 -27.4 -16.3 -14.6 1038.5 100.0 -0.2 -16° 0.0
360 Mon 02/14 12Z 6.4 7.7 5.6 1.7 SSE 7 SW 20 WSW 48 0.00"   0.00" 521 5499.4 -24.8 -13.9 -12.8 1038.5 98.3 -0.0 -14° 0.0
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