HighTechEE Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Next Thurs 06z GFS had a monster ice storm for the Ohio I-71 corridor, 12z is a 200 miles whiff to the north, almost 3ft for N. Indiana/S. Mich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 the 12z gfs is our nightmare and the 12z ggem is our dream. Provides a perfect window into what we need to happen and what we hope doesn't happen. GGEM is trending stronger with the high pressure and push south, it also holds back the sw more and strings it out. GFS sends out more of a consolidated sw and has a weaker northern stream. Trying to stay completely unbiased I think in a set up where a positively tilted trough with a pressing arctic high is going to be more likely to trend towards a southeast push. We really haven't had a storm with a pushing arctic high yet this season. The one last weekend was on the backside of the high and that kept it more west. Still a lot of moving parts and I honestly don't think we'll have even a general idea until monday 00z and even then it's still 2-3 days out. fun one to track though no matter what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z GFS strung out POS! 1.50 ice I don’t think so. 12z Gem looks like 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 ukmet is really progressive, actually takes the storm that forms on the front east of us and whiffs us. The uk has been pretty progressive all season though I remember it use to be the model that would bomb out every storm in the 6 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, buckeye said: ukmet is really progressive, actually takes the storm that forms on the front east of us and whiffs us. The uk has been pretty progressive all season though I remember it use to be the model that would bomb out every storm in the 6 day range. Not all that far off from what the euro just did. This thing is gonna change a lot in the next 3 days. I'm not sure I buy the anafront solutions to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Gino27 said: Not all that far off from what the euro just did. This thing is gonna change a lot in the next 3 days. I'm not sure I buy the anafront solutions to be honest. Knowing how little snow we've had this season, time to lock in the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18z GFS still sux for bottom half of Indiana. Rain and ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Someone needs to unplug the gfs and plug it back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: 18z GFS still sux for bottom half of Indiana. Rain and ice.. Hoping to stay out of the significant ice and eek out a WSW for a 4 inch snow right at the end. We have had four snows this winter and all have been a half inch or less so I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Someone needs to unplug the gfs and plug it back in. OMG! LMAO, I needed that one, thank you sir! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Seems to be some nervous posts in the other thread regarding the early week storm's heaviest snow axis moving south. To me, it looked like 0z-6z runs were obviously further south. I agree with Buckeye about a pressing cold high tends to move things further south the closer in time we get, so maybe this is part of that, or maybe it's just a couple bad runs and we see it go back north, which wouldn't be the first time. Climo this time of the year does favor further south though. Even with the further south track shown, it wouldn't be a big snow event for central and southern parts of Ohio. More rain south and significant ice for central. Places like the northern Miami Valley would be hammered with snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: Seems to be some nervous posts in the other thread regarding the early week storm's heaviest snow axis moving south. To me, it looked like 0z-6z runs were obviously further south. I agree with Buckeye about a pressing cold high tends to move things further south the closer in time we get, so maybe this is part of that, or maybe it's just a couple bad runs and we see it go back north, which wouldn't be the first time. Climo this time of the year does favor further south though. Even with the further south track shown, it wouldn't be a big snow event for central and southern parts of Ohio. More rain south and significant ice for central. Places like the northern Miami Valley would be hammered with snow, though. Looong way to go on this. I don’t know if anyone ever checks the weather channel app but for amusement purposes you should. Insane totals it’s throwing out there for my area & this far out. It changes all the time but nonetheless it’s pretty funny. Buddy told me they use the GFSv16 to create their forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Looong way to go on this. I don’t know if anyone ever checks the weather channel app but for amusement purposes you should. Insane totals it’s throwing out there for my area & this far out. It changes all the time but nonetheless it’s pretty funny. Buddy told me they use the GFSv16 to create their forecasts? I had heard it's a model blend that mostly favors the euro. That would be the only model showing big totals this far south anyways. Still gonna take a lot for that to happen imo. Today's runs will definitely tell a lot of the story. Hopefully we keep seeing things move in our direction. Like we said above, it's been so long since a big storm for Columbus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I had heard it's a model blend that mostly favors the euro. That would be the only model showing big totals this far south anyways. Still gonna take a lot for that to happen imo. Today's runs will definitely tell a lot of the story. Hopefully we keep seeing things move in our direction. Like we said above, it's been so long since a big storm for Columbus. I don't actually think it would take all that much to give Columbus a decent storm. Probably wouldn't be in the axis of highest totals regardless, but it wouldn't take much more of a south move to put all of Central Ohio in the 6"+ totals, which would be on the larger side of typical storms for the area. With Buckeye's pressing high and climo, I would hedge my bets for a storm track further south than north, though. At least right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Riding the lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Gfs clown maps on tropical tidbits give us more than a foot and a half -- but they include all frozen precip in 10:1 ratios. And verbatim it's mostly sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 47 minutes ago, jaf316 said: Gfs clown maps on tropical tidbits give us more than a foot and a half -- but they include all frozen precip in 10:1 ratios. And verbatim it's mostly sleet/freezing rain. Gotta use pivotalweather for those maps. Here is the 6z from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, jbcmh81 said: I don't actually think it would take all that much to give Columbus a decent storm. Probably wouldn't be in the axis of highest totals regardless, but it wouldn't take much more of a south move to put all of Central Ohio in the 6"+ totals, which would be on the larger side of typical storms for the area. With Buckeye's pressing high and climo, I would hedge my bets for a storm track further south than north, though. At least right now. Agree. Right now 50 mile shift for myself is the difference between 3" and 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Gotta use pivotalweather for those maps. Here is the 6z from there. Yeah, I know. But I like looking at the pretty colors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, jaf316 said: Yeah, I know. But I like looking at the pretty colors... I'm rooting for a southeast push to give us a monster like 08 or I'm rooting for completely north whiff. I dont want 1.5" of ice like models show for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, dilly84 said: I'm rooting for a southeast push to give us a monster like 08 or I'm rooting for completely north whiff. I dont want 1.5" of ice like models show for me Refresh my memory? What was the monster '08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Refresh my memory? What was the monster '08? Record setting snow for cmh. March 8, 2008. Cmh recorded 20" and Much of Ohio was buried under 1-2ft of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 CMC is a crush job for everyone along and north of I-70. More in line with the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Gem for the win. Some major differences. But I'd rather the models argue with each other than the other matching with gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Record setting snow for cmh. March 8, 2008. Cmh recorded 20" and Much of Ohio was buried under 1-2ft of snow. Oh yes. I remember now pushing my dad's Mitsubishi eclipse through insane snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro is a nightmare scenario for icing along I-70. Not looking forward to that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Euro is a nightmare scenario for icing along I-70. Not looking forward to that at all Wouldn't worry about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Wouldn't worry about it yet. Hope you’re right. I’m officially worried. That would be a crippling ice storm for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 No need to worry, we have Oh Canada on our side! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looking down the road two weeks from today 12z GFS has KDAY at -28.2 for the morning low!!! There would have to be a serious amount of snow on the ground to achieve that. 300 Sat 02/12 00Z 5.2 18.9 5.2 -0.7 WNW 13 WNW 23 WSW 64 0.00" 0.00" 514 5371.9 -30.2 -15.5 -17.8 1030.4 100.0 0.1 -16° 260.0 303 Sat 02/12 03Z -0.8 5.1 -0.8 -6.8 WNW 12 WNW 22 WSW 60 0.00" 0.00" 512 5360.3 -30.1 -16.8 -21.4 1033.0 100.0 -0.2 -19° 0.0 306 Sat 02/12 06Z -4.9 5.1 -4.9 -11.2 WNW 11 WNW 21 WSW 55 0.00" 0.00" 508 5334.4 -30.0 -19.1 -23.8 1034.3 100.0 -0.0 -25° 0.0 309 Sat 02/12 09Z -12.0 -5.0 -12.0 -18.2 WNW 9 NW 22 WSW 49 0.00" 0.00" 505 5302.1 -29.2 -21.0 -25.8 1035.2 24.7 0.1 -46° 0.0 312 Sat 02/12 12Z -24.6 -5.0 -24.6 -30.5 W 6 NW 20 W 41 0.00" 0.00" 501 5275.5 -30.3 -23.4 -26.5 1037.5 5.3 0.0 -49° 0.0 315 Sat 02/12 15Z -16.5 -16.5 -25.9 -23.2 WNW 8 NW 16 W 33 0.00" 0.00" 499 5252.0 -31.1 -25.7 -26.9 1037.6 5.0 0.1 -47° 162.1 318 Sat 02/12 18Z -7.6 -7.6 -25.9 -15.2 WNW 10 WNW 13 W 29 0.00" 0.00" 496 5220.8 -32.8 -27.8 -26.0 1035.7 97.2 0.0 -45° 385.5 321 Sat 02/12 21Z -5.4 -5.3 -7.5 -13.6 WNW 11 WNW 16 WNW 28 0.00" 0.00" 493 5184.2 -35.8 -29.9 -24.4 1034.9 100.0 -0.1 -44° 560.0 324 Sun 02/13 00Z -13.4 -5.3 -13.4 -19.5 W 8 WNW 22 WNW 25 0.00" 0.00" 490 5169.9 -37.0 -31.1 -25.4 1037.0 30.3 0.1 -44° 331.3 327 Sun 02/13 03Z -21.0 -13.6 -21.0 -26.9 W 6 WNW 23 NW 23 0.00" 0.00" 490 5177.6 -36.5 -31.6 -25.8 1038.8 5.6 0.2 -42° 0.0 330 Sun 02/13 06Z -24.7 -13.6 -24.7 -30.7 WSW 6 NW 20 NW 25 0.00" 0.00" 493 5211.7 -31.5 -30.6 -25.0 1039.7 7.3 0.2 -43° 0.0 333 Sun 02/13 09Z -27.1 -24.8 -27.1 -33.2 WSW 5 WNW 19 NW 29 0.00" 0.00" 499 5278.9 -28.5 -28.4 -24.2 1041.0 5.0 0.3 -44° 0.0 336 Sun 02/13 12Z -27.8 -24.8 -28.2 -34.0 WSW 3 NW 12 NW 36 0.00" 0.00" 505 5343.2 -27.7 -23.5 -22.9 1041.9 5.0 0.3 -49° 0.0 339 Sun 02/13 15Z -12.1 -12.1 -27.7 -19.6 WSW 5 W 6 NW 31 0.00" 0.00" 509 5395.4 -27.4 -21.2 -22.8 1042.9 5.0 0.4 -47° 164.6 342 Sun 02/13 18Z -1.2 -1.2 -27.8 -9.8 SW 6 SW 8 NW 26 0.00" 0.00" 511 5420.3 -26.8 -20.0 -22.8 1042.2 77.6 0.2 -47° 374.2 345 Sun 02/13 21Z 2.9 2.9 -1.1 -6.5 SSE 3 SSE 5 W 28 0.00" 0.00" 514 5433.5 -26.8 -17.3 -20.2 1040.1 98.8 0.2 -41° 522.7 348 Mon 02/14 00Z 3.7 3.8 -1.1 -2.2 ESE 4 SSE 11 W 30 0.00" 0.00" 515 5450.2 -26.5 -15.7 -18.8 1040.2 100.0 -0.1 -16° 299.1 351 Mon 02/14 03Z 4.4 4.4 3.7 0.3 ESE 6 SSE 16 WSW 39 0.00" 0.00" 517 5460.4 -26.8 -16.5 -17.1 1039.6 100.0 -0.1 -17° 0.0 354 Mon 02/14 06Z 6.8 6.8 3.7 2.0 SE 7 S 20 WSW 41 0.00" 0.00" 517 5461.9 -28.5 -16.1 -15.9 1038.8 100.0 -0.1 -16° 0.0 357 Mon 02/14 09Z 6.2 7.6 5.9 2.0 SE 6 SSW 18 WSW 44 0.00" 0.00" 518 5472.3 -27.4 -16.3 -14.6 1038.5 100.0 -0.2 -16° 0.0 360 Mon 02/14 12Z 6.4 7.7 5.6 1.7 SSE 7 SW 20 WSW 48 0.00" 0.00" 521 5499.4 -24.8 -13.9 -12.8 1038.5 98.3 -0.0 -14° 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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