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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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51 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Add this one to your wall from last year!  I think we may have got no snow at all from this eye candy map.

1485435308_12ZGFS16DaySuperEyeCandySnowfallSWOhioFeb10-262021.thumb.JPG.334396145003db30c33536bddc5683a1.JPG

My house would be sitting under a glacier if you totalled up all the virtual snow the GFS has given me over the past few years... 

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9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

And... it's gone.

Fully expected to see that. Once this trough exists stage right, we're gonna go from being fringed east to being on the warm side of cutters.  The new pattern is probably going to favor western sub unless we can get back to back storms with the second riding the displaced baroclinic zone.  Probably more of an icy setup too if that happens.   

 

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2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Looks like Weatherbell is under an ECWA (East Coast Weenie Attack). :lmao:  Site is running very slow...

Heard from another post that JB's folks both died at the same time last Wednesday.   Turned out to be true.  I wonder how that happens?   Pretty rough stuff, I wonder if he's taking a hiatus.

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26 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Heard from another post that JB's folks both died at the same time last Wednesday.   Turned out to be true.  I wonder how that happens?   Pretty rough stuff, I wonder if he's taking a hiatus.

Some kind of accident?  Very sad news.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Heard from another post that JB's folks both died at the same time last Wednesday.   Turned out to be true.  I wonder how that happens?   Pretty rough stuff, I wonder if he's taking a hiatus.

That’s awful. He has posted something weather related on his Twitter as recent as yesterday. 

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I don't hate where we sit right now.   All models are converging on the general idea of a positively tilted trough and hanging energy back in the sw.  Trends would probably favor stronger northern stream in a la nina.   Details of where the zone sets up, how much energy ejects, the strength of the low and whether it's 1 or 2 pieces are all things the models aren't going to get a handle on for a few days.   But we are in the game at least.

 

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't hate where we sit right now.   All models are converging on the general idea of a positively tilted trough and hanging energy back in the sw.  Trends would probably favor stronger northern stream in a la nina.   Details of where the zone sets up, how much energy ejects, the strength of the low and whether it's 1 or 2 pieces are all things the models aren't going to get a handle on for a few days.   But we are in the game at least.

 

2 pieces with a more eastern track with the second would be our best bet imo. Obviously hard to trust models with the big dog crushing the NE this weekend. 

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1 minute ago, Gino27 said:

2 pieces with a more eastern track with the second would be our best bet imo. Obviously hard to trust models with the big dog crushing the NE this weekend. 

Seems like it's pushing back in time.  This was originally a Monday Tuesday  event now it's next Wednesday Thursday.    

The icon does what you're referring to with two storms.   The ggem is more like the gfs with us mostly rain.  144 hrs out has a low over cle.   

We got a long way to go with a lot of model head fakes ahead,  good and bad.

Today's mjo is now going from cod right into phase 3 which is the coldest phase.  Hopefully that translates into more bullying from the north.

 

 

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150 hrs out....    doubt this is how it ends up.   Then again the low could end up over Indy by then:ph34r:  

actually still feeling good to score something out of this in spite of the op runs.    

150.jpg.0311d7b4f5c01e10792f452f8034e622.jpg

It'll be interesting to see if the euro does that thing where it goes east at 00z and west at 12z.   Seems to do that for some reason.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

150 hrs out....    doubt this is how it ends up.   Then again the low could end up over Indy by then:ph34r:  

actually still feeling good to score something out of this in spite of the op runs.    

150.jpg.0311d7b4f5c01e10792f452f8034e622.jpg

It'll be interesting to see if the euro does that thing where it goes east at 00z and west at 12z.   Seems to do that for some reason.

It really has seemed it’s been doing that for a few years now. Weird.

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27 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Comical seeing tons of posts on Facebook about a "significant winter Storm for 9hio next wednesday" then people wonder why Mets are laughed at. The smart thing to do would be to wait til the one system is gone to have a better handle where the low will actually go.

You referring to the coastal storm.

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18 hours ago, buckeye said:

150 hrs out....    doubt this is how it ends up.   Then again the low could end up over Indy by then:ph34r:  

actually still feeling good to score something out of this in spite of the op runs.    

150.jpg.0311d7b4f5c01e10792f452f8034e622.jpg

It'll be interesting to see if the euro does that thing where it goes east at 00z and west at 12z.   Seems to do that for some reason.

Yup, theory holds, it’ll be interesting to see what 12z does today.

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