dilly84 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Anyone else starting to get concerned? Many places reporting sleet and zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Anyone else starting to get concerned? Many places reporting sleet and zr. I'm pretty sure we had some drizzle. Means things maybe a bit further nw. Good thing. Also I think some models showed mixing in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Got around an inch here. This outer band is a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sleet fest 2022 here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 We got about a quarter of a skiff here on the SE side of Dayton, good bit of sleet had mixed in, back to mostly snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Nothing but a dusting here. Dryslot non stop. Rap still hammers, but I just have a feeling the dryslot has allowed waa to move in. Starting to look like a bust. Hopefully something changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 A lot of hi-res models had mixing all the way into NE OH and NW PA for a time later this evening, so I don't think the mix is a surprise. It "should" go to snow through the evening as better banding develops. I wouldn't call a bust yet but you'll know which way it's going in the next few hours if banding starts cranking and flips everyone back to snow. Along the OH river went back to snow as heavier rates developed over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sleet here... edit, changed to snow right after I typed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 freezing drizzle and sleet has turned to mod snow....radar looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: freezing drizzle and sleet has turned to mod snow....radar looks great I was getting ready to say that the radar looks better then it has all day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: freezing drizzle and sleet has turned to mod snow....radar looks great Yea. Latest rap still giving huge totals. We'll see. Edit: back to a snow sleet mix 7:27pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 All snow IMBY and has got heavier with large flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Still snow sleet mix here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too). The heaviest may be east of some of the posters in this thread, but it's really an outstanding set-up for our region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Got some flurries going lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Back to sleet in knox county. This is ridiculous. I should be far enough north that this isn't an issue with this system. It's starting to look like a massive bust just like the one storm last year. It's gonna have to hammer down to even come close to model totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrrvilleWX Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Switched to all ice pellets in Orriville Ohio. Was feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 53 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Back to sleet in knox county. This is ridiculous. I should be far enough north that this isn't an issue with this system. It's starting to look like a massive bust just like the one storm last year. It's gonna have to hammer down to even come close to model totals. Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Very light snow and sleet mixing right now in mentor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, OHweather said: Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table. Short range models still showing a lot for here. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, dilly84 said: Short range models still showing a lot for here. We'll see. I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Gonna bust high for my 1 inch prediction in Powell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, OHweather said: I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker. We're in heavy snow now and probably at about 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Got a little more than 2" here in Dayton. That west outer band was a nice surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrrvilleWX Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 We’ve picked an additional 2” in short period time. Really coming down right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 DAY got 0.8" of snow, highest snowfall of the season. Now at 1.7" for the season. Still waiting for the first 1+" snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks like close to 4" here. Not bad for a hungry weenie. This one was a fun one to track. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like close to 4" here. Not bad for a hungry weenie. This one was a fun one to track. Not much more over in Newark. The dry slot that hung on for several hours, combined with the sleet fest killed our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Close to two inches here just Southeast of Dayton in Bellbrook. We were fortunate the far western band inched a bit further NW than forecast. Throw a rock west of Dayton and its zippo. Sad that we get excited for a couple of inches of snow in mid January. That's what happens when you have to wait this deep into winter to get that white elixir. Maybe our fortunes are changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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