pondo1000 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, buckeye said: I'd say overall very slight changes for better today. Biggest disappointment was the ggem which was a near miss east for central OH and a small jump east with all the 500mb features. Sunday morning the closed low will be over the southern states. Gonna be a nailbiter the next 2 days. Have to dust off all the mesos and issue a radar hallucinations watch...conditions will be favorable. Was the 500mb jump east just w/ the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nam is a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Was the 500mb jump east just w/ the Canadian? pretty much 11 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Nam is a disappointment yea....nam +48 18z run...that's usually when someone gets nam'd, we got null'd. Long way to go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Nam is a disappointment Went from 1 at 6z to 9 at 12z and 3 at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 rgem is a little better which might mean the ggem comes back around tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Gino27 said: Nam is a disappointment You mean the 18z run, or just in general... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18z euro nice shift west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, buckeye said: 18z euro nice shift west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If we keep this momentum of ticking west, and phasing more with the shortwave (which the 18z euro did beautifully) I really like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 0z NAM continues the trend of the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3k NAM still snowing in C/E Ohio. Northern energy snow showers in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sleet could be risk along and SE of I-71 IF things hold where they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 00z Euro: Shifted back East on the 6z GFS: 6z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 yeah 6z gfs and granted its long range but rap and hrrr not good at all for ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Seems as if a tiny difference in the stream interaction (1-3 hours) is the difference between central Ohio getting heavy totals and almost nothing. Virtually no model is accurate enough to nail that down imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, WHEATCENT said: yeah 6z gfs and granted its long range but rap and hrrr not good at all for ohio Both are only good inside 12hrs imo. Extremely short range models. However, it is concerning that all the short range models basically whiff all of ohio outside of like 2". Fv3, hrrr, wrf are all bad for us. But I don't trust any of them outside of 6-12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Gino27 said: Seems as if a tiny difference in the stream interaction (1-3 hours) is the difference between central Ohio getting heavy totals and almost nothing. Virtually no model is accurate enough to nail that down imo. 12z nam hammers. While gfs at 6z whiffed. Waiting 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Mood flakes and frozen mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 hours ago, WHEATCENT said: yeah 6z gfs and granted its long range but rap and hrrr not good at all for ohio Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season. We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated. We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime. As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours. That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, buckeye said: Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season. We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated. We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime. As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours. That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day. Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though Boom potential is definitely there with the right band placement. We still convincing ourselves ULL's hold on longer before transferring compared to models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Boom potential is definitely there with the right band placement. We still convincing ourselves ULL's hold on longer before transferring compared to models? No idea, but to my untrained, dumb eye, 12z Goofus went a tad west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hope you guys get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this. if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump. but we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, buckeye said: just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this. if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump. but we'll see Was I right about 12z Goofus being a tad west w/ heavier precip at least. Maybe a tighter gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Question: is there a chance that the energy coming in behind the storm will come in faster and pull the storm further NW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, jaf316 said: Question: is there a chance that the energy coming in behind the storm will come in faster and pull the storm further NW? Yeah it's a possibility and it's what we're rooting for to happen. Need main wave to be just a tad slower and west as the second energy has been trending faster. Phasing looked best yet on this euro run, but it didn't translate down to the surface much like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 I would take 3-5 and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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