“Let’s Talk Winter”

[Steve]

Well here we go again!! Almost didn’t do it this year…rough year! Let’s here some thoughts on this winter..

[Gino27]

There's definitely a mixed bag of factors to deliberate about this winter for our area. Given this will be a 2nd year nina, there aren't very consistent analogs to compare from this standpoint. Obviously 2011-2012 was godawful, and that type of winter is certainly a possibility. Most of the other 2nd year nina's were close to, or just below average snow.

 

In terms of what we can see developing now, there appears to be a SSW either ongoing or staring soon. This should lead to a weaker than normal PV overall, but it's clearly too early to how this will impact us.

Another factor I'm not as familiar with is the cooling in the NPAC region. I've seen some mets point this out as a red flag for the east coast, but I'm not sure how it could affect us.

Overall I think this winter will be warmer than normal with probably less than average snow, but not a complete torch/snoozer. Maybe Columbus will finally break out of it's "big storm" slump.

[buckeye]

Can we have this map 24hrs out in the dead of winter with antecedent Arctic air?

Lol, of course not.

[CoachLB]

Stacking up lol.

[iluvsnow]

Always good to see the first snow flakes of the season.....

 

[CoachLB]

It’s actually snowing pretty good right now. Nickels and dimes.

[Jim Martin]

 

[iluvsnow]

About zenith here in Dayton area......

 

[pondo1000]

Snow globe here right now. Sticking to everything but pavement. Looks nice!

[CoachLB]

Picked up close to an inch.

[Gino27]

Snowed fairly hard here at OSU. Had a coating on the grass but melted quickly. Loved the mood flakes!

[Frog Town]

Trends as of late are not looking good for December.   Any thoughts on this??

[Pascy619]

20 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Trends as of late are not looking good for December.   Any thoughts on this??

Agreed....Here we go again. lol Probably will be a crummy Dec and Jan with a decent February before spring shows up. The past few Winters here in WI have been exactly that. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 11/18/2021 at 1:53 PM, Frog Town said:

Trends as of late are not looking good for December.   Any thoughts on this??

Where are you seeing this?

[jaf316]

Gfs and euro both give central OH a light frosting on Tuesday night. Maybe an inch or so. Not much, but I'll take it... 

[Gino27]

On 12/4/2021 at 4:32 PM, jaf316 said:

Gfs and euro both give central OH a light frosting on Tuesday night. Maybe an inch or so. Not much, but I'll take it... 

Sure looks like we could see a widespread dusting or maybe an inch. Ratios will be on our side but dry air will be hard to overcome.

[CoachLB]

Dumpster fire rest of the month.

[pondo1000]

Mood flakes. Soak it in…gonna be a while before we see any again.

[buckeye]

3 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Mood flakes. Soak it in…gonna be a while before we see any again.

hoping for some record warmth in the next week or two if it's going to torch.   Be awesome to take a 'sun's-out-guns-out' walk in December.

[pondo1000]

12z GFS-snowstorm on the 7th, book it!!! LOL I am bored this winter so had to post something on this dead thread. 

[jbcmh81]

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

12z GFS-snowstorm on the 7th, book it!!! LOL I am bored this winter so had to post something on this dead thread. 

At least the pattern looks slightly more interesting after the first few days of the new year.  Maybe it'll be a 1984-1985 situation.  

[pondo1000]

1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said:

At least the pattern looks slightly more interesting after the first few days of the new year.  Maybe it'll be a 1984-1985 situation.  

What happened in that winter here? I was on east coast at the time.

[jbcmh81]

35 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

What happened in that winter here? I was on east coast at the time.

December '84 was very similar.  Aside from a fluke storm at the beginning of the month, it was very warm and snowless.  After the New Year, it got cold and it was wall to wall winter for the next 7 weeks.  

[jbcmh81]

Here's 84-85

	December
	High	Low	Mean	Dept	Precip	Snowfall	Depth
1	46	34	40	2	Trace	0	0
2	49	29	39	1	Trace	0	0
3	48	26	37	0	0.13	0	0
4	32	19	26	-12	0	0	0
5	30	15	23	-14	0.28	5.7	0
6	26	10	18	-18	0.1	1.6	6
7	20	6	13	-23	Trace	Trace	6
8	38	19	29	-7	0	0	5
9	44	17	31	-5	0	0	3
10	44	38	41	6	0.38	0	1
11	41	37	39	5	Trace	0	Trace
12	59	38	49	14	0.08	0	0
13	59	41	50	16	0.35	0	0
14	63	42	53	19	0.11	0	0
15	55	48	52	18	0	0	0
16	64	48	56	23	0	0	0
17	67	46	57	24	Trace	0	0
18	57	32	45	12	0	0	0
19	47	34	41	8	0.16	0	0
20	40	32	36	4	0	0	0
21	59	36	48	16	0.43	Trace	0
22	55	28	42	10	0	0	0
23	45	22	34	2	0	0	0
24	47	25	36	5	Trace	Trace	0
25	26	15	21	-11	Trace	Trace	0
26	36	17	27	-4	Trace	Trace	0
27	56	35	46	15	0	0	0
28	68	53	61	30	0.03	0	0
29	64	50	57	27	0.46	0	0
30	50	33	42	11	0.28	0	0
31	53	35	44	14	0.05	0	0
Avg	48	31	39.5	6	2.84	7.3	0.7

 

	January
	High	Low	Mean	Dept	Precip	Snowfall	Depth
1	65	33	49	21	0.09	0	0
2	34	30	32	4	0.01	Trace	0
3	34	26	30	3	0	0	0
4	36	28	32	5	Trace	0	0
5	40	30	35	8	Trace	Trace	0
6	34	29	32	5	0	0	0
7	35	31	33	6	0.13	1.4	1
8	32	13	23	-4	0.03	0.4	1
9	21	7	14	-13	0	0	1
10	27	19	23	-4	0.18	4.9	2
11	24	14	19	-7	0.01	0.3	5
12	20	12	16	-10	Trace	Trace	5
13	29	13	21	-5	0	0	5
14	30	19	25	-1	0.08	1.6	4
15	20	8	14	-12	0.01	0.3	5
16	22	4	13	-13	0.04	0.5	4
17	32	20	26	0	0.17	1.9	6
18	33	20	27	1	0.2	3.1	6
19	27	-5	11	-15	Trace	Trace	9
20	-5	-19	-12	-38	Trace	0.2	8
21	11	-16	-3	-29	0.02	0.6	8
22	21	11	16	-10	0.02	0.7	8
23	28	17	23	-3	Trace	Trace	8
24	30	25	28	2	0.06	1	8
25	30	14	22	-4	0.14	3.7	8
26	18	5	12	-14	Trace	Trace	10
27	28	12	20	-6	0	0	9
28	27	22	25	-1	Trace	Trace	7
29	24	14	19	-7	Trace	Trace	6
30	32	10	21	-5	Trace	0.1	5
31	34	25	30	4	0.12	1.2	5
Avg	28.2	15.2	21.7	-4.6	1.31	21.9	4.6

	February
	High	Low	Mean	Dept	Precip	Snowfall	Depth
1	25	11	18	-12	0.04	1	5
2	14	2	8	-22	0.07	2.4	6
3	15	-10	3	-28	0	0	8
4	25	-9	8	-23	0	0	8
5	33	19	26	-5	0.05	0.4	8
6	32	12	22	-9	0.02	0.3	7
7	16	7	12	-20	Trace	Trace	7
8	19	1	10	-21	Trace	Trace	7
9	24	-7	9	-23	0	0	7
10	31	5	18	-14	0.1	1.3	6
11	44	30	37	5	0.13	Trace	7
12	37	27	32	0	0.42	4.1	5
13	27	18	23	-10	0.2	2.5	11
14	23	14	19	-14	0.03	0.5	11
15	19	8	14	-19	Trace	Trace	11
16	32	1	17	-16	0	0	11
17	39	23	31	-2	0	0	10
18	40	14	27	-6	Trace	Trace	9
19	37	24	31	-3	Trace	Trace	7
20	40	19	30	-4	0	0	6
21	49	25	37	3	0.05	0	5
22	49	42	46	11	0.42	0	2
23	66	46	56	21	Trace	0	Trace
24	62	39	51	16	0.14	0	0
25	40	33	37	1	0	0	0
26	48	35	42	6	0	0	0
27	42	28	35	-1	Trace	0	0
28	46	24	35	-1	0	0	0
Avg	34.8	17.2	26	-6.8	1.67	12.5	5.9

 

[pondo1000]

7 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

December '84 was very similar.  Aside from a fluke storm at the beginning of the month, it was very warm and snowless.  After the New Year, it got cold and it was wall to wall winter for the next 7 weeks.  

Wow, that would be nice!

[chuckster2012]

I've about given up on the OV getting any snow...

[ChiTownSnow]

Don't look now, but next 10 days has a look to it

[pondo1000]

Can we get this thread past its 1st page before things come crashing down with tonight’s model suite? 
December 29th & one page! Oy, what a winter so far….

[Gino27]

What is a snow?

 

[HighTechEE]

The 57th Hocking Hills Annual Winter Hike is in two weeks at the Old Man Cave State Park and no ice formations or snow so far. With the models showing near normal temps over the next two weeks, no hope for the real winter like scenes.  The last real winter we've had here in Ohio was Jan. of 2014 and my avatar pic was at Ash Cave that year, it almost froze all the way to the top (85ft) and that only has happend once since I've been around and it happened in Jan/Feb of '78.