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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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27 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues. 

The 02z is indeed colder here, from about 32 on the 00z to 29 now for much of the morning, but man, that inverted trough is a pain. 

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Rain to snow has been moved up a lot was 3pm but now 11am to change to all snow . Only problem is temps not to drop to freezing till after 4pm or so .  Maybe if snow start dumping it will bring temps down quickly . 

Saturday
Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 33 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as 22. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round.   This may be it for us. 

Someone else was just mentioning that online too! This has been a nightmare of a storm to track and figure out, man Id love to see more though as this round was a bit overperforming.

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10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round.   This may be it for us. 

Models I am looking at show around another 2" or so for you. ???

Additionally, watch the larger radar and pivot. More snow will work back in. 

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3 minutes ago, draco1188 said:

Wow - so I woke up at 10 a.m. to 33° and heavy snow in Russellville, AR and still snowing. I think most of the mets online are as shocked as I am. 

I was just looking at that.  I heard a met say that the HRRR was forecasting y'alls temps at 10 a.m. at 42 and it was 33.  Big miss

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Full disclosure: I was a bit overzealous with my measuring abilities this morning.  Blame it on lack of coffee or sleep deprivation.  I was sticking the measuring tape too deep (insert “that’s what she said” joke here…) and therefore was wrong.  Just re-measured around 2”.  Maybe a slight bit of melting but still.  
Just didn’t want to lose my slight bit of credibility with you fine folks!  

Nice sized flakes coming down now. 

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Full disclosure: I was a bit overzealous with my measuring abilities this morning.  Blame it on lack of coffee or sleep deprivation.  I was sticking the measuring tape too deep (insert “that’s what she said” joke here…) and therefore was wrong.  Just re-measured around 2”.  Maybe a slight bit of melting but still.  
Just didn’t want to lose my slight bit of credibility with you fine folks!  

Nice sized flakes coming down now. 

I was thinking you must have gotten under one of those meso-scale bands that could certainly do that.   We're probably close to 2" here. 

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7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I was thinking you must have gotten under one of those meso-scale bands that could certainly do that.   We're probably close to 2" here. 

Probly about 3" or so here, I'm sure wherever these off and on bands setup is who gets what ya know. Its off and on bursts of moderate snow here. Temp actually went up a few degrees too but still below freezing, I love how this is sticking to the trees!! Looks awesome out there for once.

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Just now, Ozarkwx said:

Let’s call it 4” in Holiday Island.  Light snow and fog. Roads becoming snow covered. Temp has been rising all afternoon, now up to 31 (from 24). 
 

The sticky wet snow looks nice on trees, fences, etc. 

About the same here, misty light snow. My temps been doing the same, 31 up from 25 earlier. 

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