JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues. The 02z is indeed colder here, from about 32 on the 00z to 29 now for much of the morning, but man, that inverted trough is a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rain to snow has been moved up a lot was 3pm but now 11am to change to all snow . Only problem is temps not to drop to freezing till after 4pm or so . Maybe if snow start dumping it will bring temps down quickly . Saturday Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 33 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as 22. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 It's snowing lightly and there's a white dusting on everything except the roads which are just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Snow has reached Drake Field in Fayetteville as of 4am. Temp at 33 degrees which seems cooler than what was forecasted this soon. Gravette, AR reported the changeover about an hour ago with heavy wet flakes. TSA also updated their Decision Support graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Winter Storm Warning expanded west to encompass all of NW AR now. SPC also put out a Meso Discussion regarding a Heavy Snow Threat increasing for much of MO/AR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Got up at 4am real quick and it was already 33 and had changed over, no clue whats on the ground now maybe 1.5" . Unexpected surprise from round 1, curious to see what we get with the stuff later this afternoon?! Already down to 26 degrees here too, flurrying right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I have 2 3/4" here in Monett as of 7:45 AM. It is 24 degrees, which is colder than model forecasts. If it warms to the expected 34 today, I would be shocked. Roads are covered. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 In Bentonville I measured 15 different spots in the yard where it hasn’t drifted and show just shy of 4”. Sure doesn’t look like that much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like a lot of us may get dry slotted quite a bit for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, The Waterboy said: Looks like a lot of us may get dry slotted quite a bit for a while. NWS Tulsa reporting freezing drizzle developing in the dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like a lot of us may get dry slotted quite a bit for a while. Wow, there's not even 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: Wow, there's not even 2" here. I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round. This may be it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round. This may be it for us. Someone else was just mentioning that online too! This has been a nightmare of a storm to track and figure out, man Id love to see more though as this round was a bit overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round. This may be it for us. Models I am looking at show around another 2" or so for you. ??? Additionally, watch the larger radar and pivot. More snow will work back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Somehow, I think I’m actually in a great spot. Got that foggy look outside, visibility under a mile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Wow - so I woke up at 10 a.m. to 33° and heavy snow in Russellville, AR and still snowing. I think most of the mets online are as shocked as I am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, draco1188 said: Wow - so I woke up at 10 a.m. to 33° and heavy snow in Russellville, AR and still snowing. I think most of the mets online are as shocked as I am. I was just looking at that. I heard a met say that the HRRR was forecasting y'alls temps at 10 a.m. at 42 and it was 33. Big miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Full disclosure: I was a bit overzealous with my measuring abilities this morning. Blame it on lack of coffee or sleep deprivation. I was sticking the measuring tape too deep (insert “that’s what she said” joke here…) and therefore was wrong. Just re-measured around 2”. Maybe a slight bit of melting but still. Just didn’t want to lose my slight bit of credibility with you fine folks! Nice sized flakes coming down now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Starting to lightly snow here again also, still holding at 25 degrees according to my weather stations. I see stuff filling in but keep hearing the dreaded dry slot being mentioned everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Looks like a lot of dry air eroding away the NW wrap around. I think the short term models are onto something with just some very light snow possible. I sure can't see another 2" or so but hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: Full disclosure: I was a bit overzealous with my measuring abilities this morning. Blame it on lack of coffee or sleep deprivation. I was sticking the measuring tape too deep (insert “that’s what she said” joke here…) and therefore was wrong. Just re-measured around 2”. Maybe a slight bit of melting but still. Just didn’t want to lose my slight bit of credibility with you fine folks! Nice sized flakes coming down now. I was thinking you must have gotten under one of those meso-scale bands that could certainly do that. We're probably close to 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I was thinking you must have gotten under one of those meso-scale bands that could certainly do that. We're probably close to 2" here. Probly about 3" or so here, I'm sure wherever these off and on bands setup is who gets what ya know. Its off and on bursts of moderate snow here. Temp actually went up a few degrees too but still below freezing, I love how this is sticking to the trees!! Looks awesome out there for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still coming down pretty heavy here. I haven't gotten out to measure but I'd say about an inch so far. I'm sure ground temps are causing some melting, but the rate is enough to keep a measurable amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Back to a flizzard here. Cold, Snowy, with playoff football on TV. Beautiful day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Started snowing here about 2pm . Temp is now at freezing with around 1/2 inch of snow . So who knows we may end up with a couple inches, or more I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Let’s call it 4” in Holiday Island. Light snow and fog. Roads becoming snow covered. Temp has been rising all afternoon, now up to 31 (from 24). The sticky wet snow looks nice on trees, fences, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ozarkwx said: Let’s call it 4” in Holiday Island. Light snow and fog. Roads becoming snow covered. Temp has been rising all afternoon, now up to 31 (from 24). The sticky wet snow looks nice on trees, fences, etc. About the same here, misty light snow. My temps been doing the same, 31 up from 25 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Temp rise is from the inverted trough. Temps should start falling again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Temp rise is from the inverted trough. Temps should start falling again. Thanks Jomo, was wondering what was causing that. What did you wind up getting for totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Thanks Jomo, was wondering what was causing that. What did you wind up getting for totals? Not sure, it was all melty and wet but probably like 1-2" on the grassy/elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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