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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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You guys beat me to it. lol Interesting development being less than 12 hours out now. 8-15" being shown over the metro part of NW Arkansas via the RAP, 3km NAM, and HRRR 00z runs. The 12k NAM is a bit more conservative showing 4-7". There's also talk of convective banding/thundersnow developing over this area.

Feb 9th, 2011 all over again?

rapsn10_acc.us_sc.png

hrrrsn10_acc.us_sc.png

 

3knamsn10_acc.us_sc.png

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Just now, MoWeatherguy said:

One of the encouraging things on the 3k is the snow depth map,  which takes away the snow that allegedly doesn't stick.  Even it now has totals around 4-6 inches.

 

snod.conus.png

Yes, this is the most impressive part! I may have to sign up for the part of Charlie Brown here soon! Keep an eye on those temps the next few hours across Kansas and Oklahoma. Let's see how they surge!

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May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues. 

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8 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

Wow! Was just able to look at the latest NAM maps.  Really hoping those are right... I mean we are only 6 hours from this starting here and there is snow in southeast Kansas.

The model data is lining up with the currently ongoing precip in KS. Another good sign if you want the snow totals to verfiy. In fact, moderate to heavy snow is occurring already just north of Wichita on GR3.

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Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

ARZ002-011-151030-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WW.Y.0002.220115T0900Z-220116T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0001.220115T0900Z-220115T2300Z/
Carroll-Madison-
Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs,
and Huntsville
827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches....with 5 to 7 inches in the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Carroll and Madison Counties.

 

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