The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19z RAP looks good for most of us. It has shifted compared to the 15z run which is a good thing. Slightly lower total around Tulsa but looks more in line with GFS/NAM/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 hours out and the models still can't agree to what's if it is to rain/snow when or where . So I still can't decide to be disappointed or excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It's almost like somebody photshopped this map such that Joplin has rain. Weird one, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ^Yeah I think this system is even confusing the forecast data algorithms and not just meteorologists. Been seeing odd anomalies going on with the short range convective models like that. Same with weird spotty accumulation maps being rendered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's almost like somebody photshopped this map such that Joplin has rain. Weird one, huh? Stupid inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 N AR just getting hammered on the 00z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: N AR just getting hammered on the 00z HRRR. Would that include NWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: N AR just getting hammered on the 00z HRRR. That’s crazy! The 00z RAP looks almost identical at hour 21 (as far as it goes out) and it’s still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Would that include NWA? Sorry yah I just found my website. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: That’s crazy! The 00z RAP looks almost identical at hour 21 (as far as it goes out) and it’s still snowing. Waterboy, are you in Rogers/Bentonville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 00z NAM showing a faster transition to snow in the initial line that lives through Tulsa. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Waterboy, are you in Rogers/Bentonville? Yes. In Bentonville about 5 minutes from the WMT Home Office. Are you in Bella Vista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Yes. In Bentonville about 5 minutes from the WMT Home Office. Are you in Bella Vista? Yes, west side close to the Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 And from 1.7" to 5.7" 6 hours later on the 00z NAM. Granted only 1-2" of that will probably actually stick, but it'll be nice seeing some snow coming down. From 10.4" to 1.7" to 5.7" in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 You guys beat me to it. lol Interesting development being less than 12 hours out now. 8-15" being shown over the metro part of NW Arkansas via the RAP, 3km NAM, and HRRR 00z runs. The 12k NAM is a bit more conservative showing 4-7". There's also talk of convective banding/thundersnow developing over this area. Feb 9th, 2011 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 00z 3KM NAM pretty crazy over NW AR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That 3k NAM very generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, JoMo said: 00z 3KM NAM pretty crazy over NW AR as well. Beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Amended my above post. Crazy to note too that rural areas like Kingston and Jasper in Newton Co, AR could see upwards of 20". EDIT: The WRF is showing 30" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 One of the encouraging things on the 3k is the snow depth map, which takes away the snow that allegedly doesn't stick. Even it now has totals around 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: One of the encouraging things on the 3k is the snow depth map, which takes away the snow that allegedly doesn't stick. Even it now has totals around 4-6 inches. Yes, this is the most impressive part! I may have to sign up for the part of Charlie Brown here soon! Keep an eye on those temps the next few hours across Kansas and Oklahoma. Let's see how they surge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Man have things changed for the better, fingers crossed! The mets online are going bonkers cause of all the model runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Man have things changed for the better, fingers crossed! The mets online are going bonkers cause of all the model runs lol Yes lol. I'm sure they're going bonkers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Question on the Pivotal snow maps - how do you get the inches overlay to show on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Wow! Was just able to look at the latest NAM maps. Really hoping those are right... I mean we are only 6 hours from this starting here and there is snow in southeast Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Question on the Pivotal snow maps - how do you get the inches overlay to show on there? Zoom in on the South Central US and then it shows. Doesn’t show on the continental US map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Zoom in on the South Central US and then it shows. Doesn’t show on the continental US map. Ok thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: Wow! Was just able to look at the latest NAM maps. Really hoping those are right... I mean we are only 6 hours from this starting here and there is snow in southeast Kansas. The model data is lining up with the currently ongoing precip in KS. Another good sign if you want the snow totals to verfiy. In fact, moderate to heavy snow is occurring already just north of Wichita on GR3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tulsa OK 827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ARZ002-011-151030- /O.UPG.KTSA.WW.Y.0002.220115T0900Z-220116T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0001.220115T0900Z-220115T2300Z/ Carroll-Madison- Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs, and Huntsville 827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches....with 5 to 7 inches in the higher terrain. * WHERE...Carroll and Madison Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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