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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...

.A storm system will approach the region from the north, causing
rain to change over to snow during the Saturday morning hours. Minor
snow accumulations ranging from a dusting to four inches are
possible.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150300-
/O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0003.220115T0900Z-220116T0300Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-St.
Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between a dusting
  and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas. portions of central, east
  central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. The
  highest amounts are expected to occur over central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly if wet or
  slushy roads tend to freeze Saturday evening as temperatures drop
  well below freezing.
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9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us.  09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy.  
They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot.  

It's this dumb inverted trough causing us problems this time around. There's always something, isn't there? 

If temps are 34 or 35, if the snow is heavy enough it will cool temps and allow the snow to accumulate. Whoever gets under these heavy bands is going to cash in on the jackpot with this storm. The question is... who is that? 

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13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us.  09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy.  
They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot.  

They also mention thundersnow for NW AR

  • Weenie 1
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19 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!!

Damn near a foot of snow for him on that run!

I live north of Tulsa, so I too, am a fan of that run, gives me about 3 inches in my neck of the woods. I'd take that!

This is such a unique setup and storm track with alot of boom/bust potential. I think someone forecasted to get an inch is going to wind up with 6+, and someone slated to get 6 will get 1. It just has that feel to it. I do think it's going to overperform though with some HEAVY snow(thundersnow) for some.

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7 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

That's wild to me, is the elevation really THAT big of a factor down there?

Sadly, sometimes, yes. But mostly when shallow cold fronts arrive from the west/northwest. The cold air typically gets locked up in the mountains and funnels its way around them. If cold winds are out of the east though it plows right across the flat lands and down the river and cools us quicker. 

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8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR.  Never gets below freezing during precip.  Tulsa scores big.  
This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned.  

I live in midtown Tulsa now, so I'll hug the rap for now. LOL :weenie:

  • Haha 1
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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR.  Never gets below freezing during precip.  Tulsa scores big.  
This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned.  

Where do you all see the RAP beyond hour 21? It is only out through 7 a.m. tomorrow on the sites I use. 

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52 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Thanks to you both! I am sticking with the HRRR. It looks better for us over here. :snowwindow:

lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks.

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5 minutes ago, JoMo said:

lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks.

Did I mention I am switching back to the 18z RAP for this model run? LOL... 

Seriously though, the line between cashing in and cashing out is going to be so thin. The ones right on the cusp will really pick up some decent snow.

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