yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Springfield MO 214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... .A storm system will approach the region from the north, causing rain to change over to snow during the Saturday morning hours. Minor snow accumulations ranging from a dusting to four inches are possible. KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150300- /O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0003.220115T0900Z-220116T0300Z/ Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between a dusting and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas. portions of central, east central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. The highest amounts are expected to occur over central Missouri. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly if wet or slushy roads tend to freeze Saturday evening as temperatures drop well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 hours ago, JoMo said: Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow. Monett schools are still in session, although I no longer work there. I am with Crowder College now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us. 09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy. They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us. 09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy. They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot. It's this dumb inverted trough causing us problems this time around. There's always something, isn't there? If temps are 34 or 35, if the snow is heavy enough it will cool temps and allow the snow to accumulate. Whoever gets under these heavy bands is going to cash in on the jackpot with this storm. The question is... who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us. 09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy. They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot. They also mention thundersnow for NW AR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!! Damn near a foot of snow for him on that run! I live north of Tulsa, so I too, am a fan of that run, gives me about 3 inches in my neck of the woods. I'd take that! This is such a unique setup and storm track with alot of boom/bust potential. I think someone forecasted to get an inch is going to wind up with 6+, and someone slated to get 6 will get 1. It just has that feel to it. I do think it's going to overperform though with some HEAVY snow(thundersnow) for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anybody have a map of the 12z totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Anybody have a map of the 12z totals? For the NAM? I'll send both the 3KM and 12KM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12km 3km So around 5 inches for you on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nice. Thanks for sharing. This run must have come in a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 except for the AR River Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, draco1188 said: except for the AR River Valley That's wild to me, is the elevation really THAT big of a factor down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: That's wild to me, is the elevation really THAT big of a factor down there? Sadly, sometimes, yes. But mostly when shallow cold fronts arrive from the west/northwest. The cold air typically gets locked up in the mountains and funnels its way around them. If cold winds are out of the east though it plows right across the flat lands and down the river and cools us quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR. Never gets below freezing during precip. Tulsa scores big. This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR. Never gets below freezing during precip. Tulsa scores big. This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned. I live in midtown Tulsa now, so I'll hug the rap for now. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, The Waterboy said: JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!! Looks good, lock it in! Must be on the pivot point. Too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Looks good, lock it in! Must be on the pivot point. Too bad it's the NAM. The pivot and associated trowel is going to benefit someone greatly. And that will be on the backside so temps won't be a concern there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: 15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR. Never gets below freezing during precip. Tulsa scores big. This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned. Where do you all see the RAP beyond hour 21? It is only out through 7 a.m. tomorrow on the sites I use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said: Where do you all see the RAP beyond hour 21? It is only out through 7 a.m. tomorrow on the sites I use. Pivotalweather but it's only specific hours that run longer than 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: The pivot and associated trowel is going to benefit someone greatly. And that will be on the backside so temps won't be a concern there. 03, 09, 15, 21z all run out to 51 hours. All other hours only to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 03, 09, 15, 21z all run out to 51 hours. All other hours only to 21. Thanks to you both! I am sticking with the HRRR. It looks better for us over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Thanks to you both! I am sticking with the HRRR. It looks better for us over here. lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks. Did I mention I am switching back to the 18z RAP for this model run? LOL... Seriously though, the line between cashing in and cashing out is going to be so thin. The ones right on the cusp will really pick up some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, JoMo said: lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks. Meanwhile it drops 6-12 inches just south of you in NW AR. No way that could be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Never change NAM, never change. From 10.4" to 1.7" in 6 hours. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18Z NAM over here crushing dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Has anyone noticed the current radar? It’s already showing light showers in SW MO around Springfield and quite a bit in Eastern KS. The HRRR doesn’t show any precip for the next 8-10 hours. Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anyone buying that SE jog of the L between 20-33 of the HRRR? It leaves NE AR in the dust without a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Buckle up folks... going to be an interesting (and likely disappointing) next 24-36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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