JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z Euro a bit beefier with QPF it looks like, more snow back in KS. Thermal issues or it might be more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Goodness are we ever going to get any decent measurable snow geez, its bad enough with these weird temps!! I've grown accustomed to this disappointment as well now though so meh whatever. Hopefully February brings us some better cold and excitement who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z NAM was improved from the 00z and back farther west with more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 For the most part, all overnight runs improved things for the region. I think the key is surface temps and how long the snow can stick around. The more that is flying after 3 p.m. on Saturday, the better the accumulation efficiency will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z NAM looks solid. Huge improvement over the past two runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nice 12Z NAM run, puts Tulsa back in the mix and drops half a foot in NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Nice 12Z NAM run, puts Tulsa back in the mix and drops half a foot in NW AR. 3km NAM is much more reasonable IMHO than the 12km. It just doesn't quite go out that far. Surface temps are going to be so tricky during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: 3km NAM is much more reasonable IMHO than the 12km. It just doesn't quite go out that far. Surface temps are going to be so tricky during this storm. Don't crush my dreams with your realistic approach. Tell me I'm going to get what the NAM showed yesterday morning with 13 inches of snow in Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 For what it’s worth the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for SW MO, and NW AR. Not so good further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: For what it’s worth the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for SW MO, and NW AR. Not so good further west. If only temps were about 2-4 degrees colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tulsa may have just issued the smallest winter storm watch in NWS history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, MUWX said: Tulsa may have just issued the smallest winter storm watch in NWS history. 2 whole counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hopefully that gets extended west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whoopie do dah...We gonna get some sloppy rain/snow according to NWS Friday Night Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow showers before 2pm, then rain showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as 26. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Doramo said: Whoopie do dah...We gonna get some sloppy rain/snow according to NWS Friday Night Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow showers before 2pm, then rain showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as 26. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Highly uncertain forecast down that way. Boom or bust potential, more so down there than anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 00z HRRR nails (central and eastern) southern MO and (central and eastern) Northern AR. On to the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 00z NAM was a fun run. Bit of a westward shift, NW AR and SW MO made out well. I somehow manage to pickup 7", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I hope the cold air moves in faster then it will be interesting for sure . I will be impatiently waiting for the 06z model runs . Lucy stay away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 3KM NAM shifted back west with totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: 3KM NAM shifted back west with totals as well. Yeah. The NAM improved snowfall amounts across the four state region. Hope that trend continues into tonight's 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 These 0z runs should be the first runs with it being fully sampled, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain. Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Will be interested to see what SGF does in the overnight package. Also wondering why St Louis was doing their afternoon updates. Wondering if COVID has hit the office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Models definitely more favorable for Tulsa today than they were last night. Looks like 1-2 inches in the metro might not be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Will be interested to see what SGF does in the overnight package. Also wondering why St Louis was doing their afternoon updates. Wondering if COVID has hit the office. Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol. HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The development of a TROWAL feature is where the game will be played in this forecast. There maybe some concerns with the temps initially, but should see things quickly change over once you get into that band on the north side of the low. Where the southeast movement slows and begins an east progression, someone is going to get socked. Sure wish this would back up even 150 miles. It's parched out here in southern Kansas and the drought shows no signs of letting up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Kinda funny how the NWS watches/warnings are a little sporadic at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform. Yeah, I agree that it could end up overperforming. Strange things happen under strong upper lows. We'll have to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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