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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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7 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Nice 12Z NAM run, puts Tulsa back in the mix and drops half a foot in NW AR.

 

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3km NAM is much more reasonable IMHO than the 12km. It just doesn't quite go out that far. Surface temps are going to be so tricky during this storm. 

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

3km NAM is much more reasonable IMHO than the 12km. It just doesn't quite go out that far. Surface temps are going to be so tricky during this storm. 

Don't crush my dreams with your realistic approach. Tell me I'm going to get what the NAM showed yesterday morning with 13 inches of snow in Tulsa.

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Whoopie do dah...We gonna get some sloppy rain/snow according to NWS :(

Friday Night
Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
Rain and snow showers before 2pm, then rain showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as 26. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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1 minute ago, Doramo said:

Whoopie do dah...We gonna get some sloppy rain/snow according to NWS :(

Friday Night
Rain and snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
Rain and snow showers before 2pm, then rain showers likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as 26. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Highly uncertain forecast down that way. Boom or bust potential, more so down there than anywhere else.

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25 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain.

Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol. 

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11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Will be interested to see what SGF does in the overnight package. 

Also wondering why St Louis was doing their afternoon updates. Wondering if COVID has hit the office.

Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow. 

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53 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol. 

HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.

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The development of a TROWAL feature is where the game will be played in this forecast. There maybe some concerns with the temps initially, but should see things quickly change over once you get into that band on the north side of the low. Where the southeast movement slows and begins an east progression, someone is going to get socked. 

Sure wish this would back up even 150 miles. It's parched out here in southern Kansas and the drought shows no signs of letting up. 

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19 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.

Yeah, I agree that it could end up overperforming. Strange things happen under strong upper lows. We'll have to see. 

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