stormdragonwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yes it might just be the natural cynic in me as I've seen it happen so many times before but I think this weekends winter storm has huge bust potential. I remain cautiously optimistic. Yes all the models are starting to go bonkers in our favor but the system is still offshore. Once it gets sampled it could go either way. The next 24-48 hours will definitely tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Southern Missouri just getting hammered this 18z NAM run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yes it might just be the natural cynic in me but as I've seen it happen so many times before I think this weekends winter storm has huge bust potential. I remain cautiously optimistic. Yes all the models are starting to go bonkers in our favor but the system is still offshore. Once it gets sampled it could go either way. The next 24-48 hours will definitely tell the story. One thing that may be working in our favor is that there was a recon mission off the west coast yesterday afternoon for research purposes and that data has been incorporated into the GFS at least. I know that data was included in last nights GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, JoMo said: Southern Missouri just getting hammered this 18z NAM run. Has an icier look at the start as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The NAM says congratulations southwest Missouri. Has 2 feet in some spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Has an icier look at the start as well. Yeah 1/2" of freezing rain in some spots, followed by at least 20" of snow, and still snowing at end of run in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z RDPS (Canadian NAM) was a good hit for SW MO, and NW AR this run. Not the insane amounts of the NAM but 3-6" and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Springfield definitely is not buying into the higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Springfield definitely is not buying into the higher amounts. Yeah, I don't blame them. It's going to be an interesting system, that's for sure... Quote SPRINGFIELD AFD: Current guidance suggests this system to dive south into the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley late Friday into Saturday. There is a noticeable pivot of the shortwave trough as it deepens and ejects eastward. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, this is unique setup that does not fit any conceptual models. Further analysis over the next 24 to 48 hours will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, MUWX said: Springfield definitely is not buying into the higher amounts. Same with TSA. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDTSA&e=202201122039 Though what I always do is go over all the modeled snowfall amounts, then average them out and thats the ballpark range of what you may be getting for the forecast area. If the pattern holds an average of 3-5" seems plausible over much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, I don't blame them. It's going to be an interesting system, that's for sure... I cant blame them, but I think they would be well served to mention the possibility of higher impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS is looking faster with the system. Going to result in the heaviest being over NE AR and SE MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z GFS is looking faster with the system. Going to result in the heaviest being over NE AR and SE MO. Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue. We’re threading the needle as it is right now. Any shift East like this is bad news for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I might have jinxed the entire area by saying that SGF should mention the possibility of higher impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue. We’re threading the needle as it is right now. Any shift East like this is bad news for most of us. Yeah, but there's a bunch more model runs to go, and a lot more changes that will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 StormChazer, Do you have 18z Euro details? I saw hour 90 in another forum but it was already in Central Ark at that hour. Curious to see what 84 and before looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z EURO looks pretty similar to the 12z run, although it is a bit lighter overall in amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I wasn't Charlie Brown this time... but Lucy sure did show up and move the football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z NAM is going to be different because it has a piece of energy farther NE, that falls apart, and then it has an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I wasn't Charlie Brown this time... but Lucy sure did show up and move the football. Yeah been burned too many times personally in the past, its why I have always remained cautious ever since this system showed up on the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam isn’t pretty but it’s not a total disaster. Dare I say…. It’s pretty close to what SGF has been calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z RDPS was also a bump SE from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The ICON wasn’t horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well… that was fun while it lasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z GFS is similar to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I hate this hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEM is coming in now. Let's see how bad it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: GEM is coming in now. Let's see how bad it is. 00z GEM looks SE of it's 12z run earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: GEM is coming in now. Let's see how bad it is. Well it certainly isn’t good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I hate this hobby. lol, I've grown used to weather disappointment so it doesn't bother me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now