Doramo Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: Doramo probably has the best chances with the upcoming system. These 'clipper' type systems usually end up farther east. That is nice for us but I'd like for all of us to get snow . So maybe it will expand more west and south with enough snow to get this blog rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Springfield is starting to buy in on the threat it appears, prepare for it to start trending in the wrong direction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, MUWX said: Springfield is starting to buy in on the threat it appears, prepare for it to start trending in the wrong direction now. Tulsa NWS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lucy tee up the football... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MUWX said: Springfield is starting to buy in on the threat it appears, prepare for it to start trending in the wrong direction now. I'm sure the Fayetteville fizzle will play into this as well. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Very strange system for this area, digging south down the Plains across western Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, JoMo said: Very strange system for this area, digging south down the Plains across western Kansas. I was thinking about that earlier too. We don’t see too many dig south from Montana/North Dakota. Do you recall anything similar that actually panned out for us? I actually kind of like these clippers. They are typically faster moving with limited moisture but we can squeak out a couple of inches. This one seems to have more potential than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I was thinking about that earlier too. We don’t see too many dig south from Montana/North Dakota. Do you recall anything similar that actually panned out for us? I actually kind of like these clippers. They are typically faster moving with limited moisture but we can squeak out a couple of inches. This one seems to have more potential than usual. I'm getting old, I can't remember things that well, anymore, but I'm sure it's happened before. The surface temps are very marginal, but it's cold enough to very cold as we head up into the atmosphere. The overall tilt/structure of the system is going to be important, especially when it comes to any wraparound precip. I think the Euro wasn't that impressive while the GFS was pretty impressive in that regard. It'll change as the energy for this system is still out in the Pacific and won't be over land until late Thursday it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 So, that was different on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, JoMo said: So, that was different on the 00z NAM. Seems like it was setting up to be a big hit for southwest mo…. Not that extrapolating the nam ever ends poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, MUWX said: Seems like it was setting up to be a big hit for southwest mo…. Not that extrapolating the nam ever ends poorly. Too bad they got rid of the DGEX, the most useless weather model ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Main change I saw on the 00z GFS was a bit weaker and a bit slower with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: Main change I saw on the 00z GFS was a bit weaker and a bit slower with the system. Almost drops 2 inches in Tulsa though. That sure would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 00z Canadian going to drop it down western KS/OK into TX this run. Weaker than the GFS. Nails central and eastern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z Canadian going to drop it down western KS/OK into TX this run. Weaker than the GFS. Nails central and eastern Arkansas. Fairly substantial change from 12z. A step toward the GFS, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 00z Euro is a little slower, little deeper, and still boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Tulsa just got NAM’d… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm not gonna talk about the NAM, I'm not gonna talk about the NAM, I'm NOT gonna talk about the NAM............................. but did you see it though? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ICON with a decent shift southwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Comparing this morning's 06Z GFS run to the 12Z run. You can definitely see that shift west. I will post the 6Z run of the Euro as well in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The Euro is much more complicated.....it shows a significant warm nose for NE Oklahoma which stops it from snowing at all. Not much change from last night's 00Z run. That being said, the 6Z and 18Z runs of the Euro use outdated upper air data, so if there's a western trend, expect it in the noon run(which I will post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll go ahead and order a healthy portion of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z Canadian finally coming in, a bit farther NW and more QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z Canadian Vs 00Z Canadian. Last Night's totals. This afternoon... A definite increase in QPF and westward shift... NW Arkansas totals will be a lot higher if those temps get down. West Fayetteville VS East Fayetteville BIG difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Canadian finally coming in, a bit farther NW and more QPF. Looks to me like the 2m temps at h84 are 3-4 degrees colder on the NAM/GFS vs the Canadian. Doesn’t matter by h90 as everyone is below freezing at that point. Not sure if that is a concern yet but NWA has 6-12 hours of precip above freezing (on the Canadian) before the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro is shifting west as well. Looks to be playing ball for you NW AR peeps. Will post soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At 21Z Difference. This run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z Euro did move more towards the GFS camp this run. Going to be interesting to see any changes that occur when this thing beaches itself tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is the Euro shift visualized by the snowfall totals, it's pretty significant. It also looks like models are agreeing on a thin band of moderate snow on the west side of the storm near Tulsa, that will be VERY hard to predict where it sets up. Last night... Today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Unless I'm reading it wrong, based on the 500 MB vorticity, the NAM is going to come in similar to the previous run. Will post once it's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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