StormChazer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 0Z GFS breathing some life into our winter weather chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right. Models typically under do the cold air. Trend could continue but I am not sure we get much snow out of it regardless. Cold air is going to be fairly shallow for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I think freezing drizzle is probably a big threat, especially later Saturday. That seems to be a signal on the model... even if it isn't really picking up on it with the QPF. NAM trended north. I am waiting before I get too excited. KC calling for 3-6" may be a big bust-a-rama depending on depth of cold air, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Still looking like the worst will be north of our area. 18z NAM is interesting with closing off that secondary system and bringing snow to basically AR/MO/NE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Here to say it’s technically snowing in Tulsa. Flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 hours ago, StormChazer said: Here to say it’s technically snowing in Tulsa. Flurries. Flurries in Bella Vista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Had some light snow/flurries here off and on. Nice dusting outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Got a dusting to an inch in spots over here in east Fayetteville. Its somewhat hard to say since snow is blowing around on the ground quite a bit. Still coming down as of this writing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Got a nice surprise of snow flurries all night, must have came down a bit heavier after going to bed after midnight as we got close to an inch here also it appears. Awesome to see for once!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Definitely had some lake effect enhancement in local areas. Probably a combination of the drastic drop in temps plus the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We got a dusting of snow here . Was nice to see some flakes coming down . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro, NAM and Canadian are showing some light snow for SWMO later this week. Not much but better than nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 hours ago, MUWX said: Euro, NAM and Canadian are showing some light snow for SWMO later this week. Not much but better than nothing. I'm surprised that the GFS isn't showing anything , not even rain ? But Springfield NWS had this to say: National Weather Service Springfield MO 243 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. " South to southwesterly wind gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph are expected at times on Tuesday. A fast moving system will bring the chance for light snow to the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some minor snow accumulations will be possible." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 EURO has cut its totals back with the 12z run, but something to follow still. These kinds of snows look like the only game in town for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 The system on Wed night/Thurs looks a bit moisture starved in our area, it will pick more up as it heads east. However, it's going to be cold and there's a decent amount of forcing, but it's moving quickly so I wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two somewhere. In our immediate area, Missouri is the most likely place to see accumulating snow it looks like. Springfield has a winter probabilities page that shows what they are thinking as far as amounts are concerned. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Definitely frustrating to see a majority of the models have snow in Colorado/ Western KS for it to disappear as it approaches us and pop again into TN. The NAM is currently the only one giving us much of a chance. Maybe we score a dusting to an inch with the cold temps/higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Early 00z model runs look a bit more juiced than previous ones. Hopefully the GFS and EURO jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 After tonight's little snow shower which may accumulate an inch or two in some places, it kinda looks pretty boring winter weather wise. There will probably be somewhat of a warmup through about mid-month and then we will probably go into the deep freeze, if the ensembles are right, due to a big -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Little over one inch of snow here with a few lingering snow showers about still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 hours ago, JoMo said: Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US. Always more than 200 hours away. Wake me up when it is within range. I am thankful for a couple of baby snows last week. Otherwise I would be super angry at this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: Always more than 200 hours away. Wake me up when it is within range. I am thankful for a couple of baby snows last week. Otherwise I would be super angry at this winter. Trough is too far east unfortunately right now. Hopefully that will change enough for us to have one winter storm this winter before we reverse back to mild again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 That Saturday storm is a weird one and has came back west quite a bit on the 00z GFS. Interesting. EDIT: 00z Canadian follows with a farther western track/stronger upper low. EDIT2: 00z Euro is farther west but weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, JoMo said: So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow. That was very interesting! Maybe we have something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, JoMo said: So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow. Temps seem too marginal for much in my view. Hopefully those trend down as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 What an awful “winter”. Aside from some mood flakes, this blows. Storms keep blowing up to our east. We badly need moisture in Oklahoma…the drought is spreading quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z GFS solid for some of us. Still need a little more shift west for the Tulsa folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Doramo probably has the best chances with the upcoming system. These 'clipper' type systems usually end up farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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